Seoul Economic Daily EnglishQwen · 实盘不做把握 4/10不做原因:不是事件
北京时间·🕒 发布 16:51:17(首尔 17:51)·⟳ 抓取 17:12:47 +21m30s·⚡ 决策 08-28 17:13:40 +53s·60.2 天前
现代汽车与起亚宣布2027年前停产乘用车柴油车型,全面转向混动与电动化
柴油车停产是现代起亚既定电动化/混动化战略的例行落地,非突发催化;柴油占其韩国销量已极低(约5%),混动替代柴油早已被市场预期和定价;对现代起亚的盈利、估值和股价没有新增边际影响,不构成可交易的增量事件。
📄 原文Seoul Economic Daily English↗ 原文
Hyundai, Kia to End Passenger Diesel Lineup by 2027
Diesel cars have fallen out of favor as global demand for eco-friendly vehicles grows. Emission standards for nitrogen…
不做 现代汽车(005380.KS)
柴油停产为既定战略例行落地,柴油占韩国销量已极低(约5%),无新增边际催化,不构成交易机会
不做 起亚(000270.KS)
同上,柴油停产不改变起亚盈利预期或估值逻辑
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
现代起亚2027年前全面停产韩国市场乘用车柴油车型。但柴油车在韩注册占比已从2020年30.8%降至2025年的2.4%,Sorento柴油仅占该车系销量5%,混动占82.5%。停产柴油、转向混动是市场趋势的自然结果和公司已公开的战略方向,不改变收入、利润或估值预期,无新增交易边际。
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-08-28 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 high ↗
原文全文
展开原文 · 4,935 字
Diesel cars have fallen out of favor as global demand for eco-friendly vehicles grows. Emission standards for nitrogen oxides and fine dust released by diesel vehicles are tightening worldwide. The South Korean government has also moved aggressively to cut diesel vehicles in line with leading environmental rules such as the European Union's Euro 7. New registrations of one-ton diesel trucks are now banned, and diesel models cannot be used as school buses for children or as delivery vehicles. Older diesel cars face restrictions on entering city centers.
The high fuel efficiency and power that were once diesel's advantages have been overshadowed by the arrival of hybrids and electric vehicles. With little difference in fuel cost per liter between diesel and gasoline, diesel no longer offers particular value for money even compared with gasoline cars. The idea of putting up with a noisy engine for the sake of power and low running costs is now a thing of the past.
The number of consumers turning away from diesel is rising quickly each year. According to the Korea Automobile & Mobility Association, 587,559 of the 1,905,972 vehicles newly registered in Korea in 2020 were diesel, or 30.8%. That share fell to 16.7% in 2023, or 292,030 out of 1,749,729 vehicles, and dropped to 5.0% last year, or 84,098 out of 1,681,611.
Through July this year, diesel accounted for just 2.4%, or 24,177 out of 995,997 vehicles. If the trend continues, annual diesel sales will fall below 50,000 units, with passenger models coming in under 10,000. That stands in sharp contrast to eco-friendly vehicles such as hybrids and electric cars, whose share rose from 11.8% in 2020 to 48.4% in 2025.
Domestic automakers are cutting diesel production in step with the shift in demand. Tighter global regulations, which make it harder for diesel vehicles to meet emission standards for export, have also contributed to the phase-out. GM Korea pulled out of diesel with the Malibu diesel in 2015, and Renault Korea followed with the QM6 diesel in 2022.
As recently as 2022, Hyundai Motor and Kia sold 15 diesel models, ranging from recreational vehicles such as the Kona, Tucson, Santa Fe, Palisade, Seltos, Sportage, Sorento and Carnival to the Genesis G70 and G80. Three years later, they had dropped 10 of those models, leaving only the Tucson, Staria, Palisade, Sorento and Carnival. Diesel versions of the Porter and Bongo, the one-ton light trucks known as the workhorses of small business owners, have also disappeared. The Tucson and Palisade are now being sold only from remaining inventory, meaning production was effectively limited to three models: the Staria, Sorento and Carnival.
Hyundai Motor and Kia have decided to drop diesel from the Carnival and Staria starting with their 2026 model-year updates, and to halt diesel production of the Sorento from the 2027 model year. That marks the end of passenger diesel models at the two automakers. The Sorento, a family sport utility vehicle, had long drawn strong demand for its diesel version.
Now, however, hybrids dominate as the market shifts toward eco-friendly options. Of the 61,579 Sorento units sold in Korea this year, 50,788, or 82.5%, were hybrids, while 7,730, or 12.6%, were gasoline and 3,061, or 5.0%, were diesel. With diesel sales steadily declining, Kia is understood to have concluded that converting the line to hybrids would be more profitable than maintaining diesel production.
With the Sorento diesel gone, the only domestically produced diesel models left will be KG Mobility's Musso and Rexton. Among importers, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, Volkswagen, Ford and Land Rover still sell diesel models in Korea. Hyundai Motor and Kia will keep diesel in their commercial lineups, including the Mighty, Pavise and Xcient medium and heavy trucks and the Universe bus. For localized models aimed at emerging markets, such as the Creta diesel built at the company's plant in India, the automakers will reduce the number of variants and volumes in line with falling local demand.
The medium- and long-term strategy at Hyundai Motor and Kia is firmly built around electrification. Hyundai plans to launch 10 new hybrid models in North America by 2030, lifting hybrids to more than 50% of its sales there. In Europe, it aims to nearly quadruple electric vehicle sales to 420,000 units by 2030 from about 116,000 now. Hyundai has set a global sales target of 5.55 million units for 2030 and said more than 3.33 million of those, or 60%, will be eco-friendly vehicles. The share currently stands at about 25%.
Kia is targeting 2.15 million eco-friendly vehicle sales in 2030, including 1.15 million hybrids and 1 million electric vehicles. That would be about 52% of its annual global sales target of 4.13 million units. The company plans to accelerate the buildout of its electric lineup to 14 models, including two passenger cars, nine SUVs and three purpose-built vehicles.
The high fuel efficiency and power that were once diesel's advantages have been overshadowed by the arrival of hybrids and electric vehicles. With little difference in fuel cost per liter between diesel and gasoline, diesel no longer offers particular value for money even compared with gasoline cars. The idea of putting up with a noisy engine for the sake of power and low running costs is now a thing of the past.
The number of consumers turning away from diesel is rising quickly each year. According to the Korea Automobile & Mobility Association, 587,559 of the 1,905,972 vehicles newly registered in Korea in 2020 were diesel, or 30.8%. That share fell to 16.7% in 2023, or 292,030 out of 1,749,729 vehicles, and dropped to 5.0% last year, or 84,098 out of 1,681,611.
Through July this year, diesel accounted for just 2.4%, or 24,177 out of 995,997 vehicles. If the trend continues, annual diesel sales will fall below 50,000 units, with passenger models coming in under 10,000. That stands in sharp contrast to eco-friendly vehicles such as hybrids and electric cars, whose share rose from 11.8% in 2020 to 48.4% in 2025.
Domestic automakers are cutting diesel production in step with the shift in demand. Tighter global regulations, which make it harder for diesel vehicles to meet emission standards for export, have also contributed to the phase-out. GM Korea pulled out of diesel with the Malibu diesel in 2015, and Renault Korea followed with the QM6 diesel in 2022.
As recently as 2022, Hyundai Motor and Kia sold 15 diesel models, ranging from recreational vehicles such as the Kona, Tucson, Santa Fe, Palisade, Seltos, Sportage, Sorento and Carnival to the Genesis G70 and G80. Three years later, they had dropped 10 of those models, leaving only the Tucson, Staria, Palisade, Sorento and Carnival. Diesel versions of the Porter and Bongo, the one-ton light trucks known as the workhorses of small business owners, have also disappeared. The Tucson and Palisade are now being sold only from remaining inventory, meaning production was effectively limited to three models: the Staria, Sorento and Carnival.
Hyundai Motor and Kia have decided to drop diesel from the Carnival and Staria starting with their 2026 model-year updates, and to halt diesel production of the Sorento from the 2027 model year. That marks the end of passenger diesel models at the two automakers. The Sorento, a family sport utility vehicle, had long drawn strong demand for its diesel version.
Now, however, hybrids dominate as the market shifts toward eco-friendly options. Of the 61,579 Sorento units sold in Korea this year, 50,788, or 82.5%, were hybrids, while 7,730, or 12.6%, were gasoline and 3,061, or 5.0%, were diesel. With diesel sales steadily declining, Kia is understood to have concluded that converting the line to hybrids would be more profitable than maintaining diesel production.
With the Sorento diesel gone, the only domestically produced diesel models left will be KG Mobility's Musso and Rexton. Among importers, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, Volkswagen, Ford and Land Rover still sell diesel models in Korea. Hyundai Motor and Kia will keep diesel in their commercial lineups, including the Mighty, Pavise and Xcient medium and heavy trucks and the Universe bus. For localized models aimed at emerging markets, such as the Creta diesel built at the company's plant in India, the automakers will reduce the number of variants and volumes in line with falling local demand.
The medium- and long-term strategy at Hyundai Motor and Kia is firmly built around electrification. Hyundai plans to launch 10 new hybrid models in North America by 2030, lifting hybrids to more than 50% of its sales there. In Europe, it aims to nearly quadruple electric vehicle sales to 420,000 units by 2030 from about 116,000 now. Hyundai has set a global sales target of 5.55 million units for 2030 and said more than 3.33 million of those, or 60%, will be eco-friendly vehicles. The share currently stands at about 25%.
Kia is targeting 2.15 million eco-friendly vehicle sales in 2030, including 1.15 million hybrids and 1 million electric vehicles. That would be about 52% of its annual global sales target of 4.13 million units. The company plans to accelerate the buildout of its electric lineup to 14 models, including two passenger cars, nine SUVs and three purpose-built vehicles.
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