CNBC能源通讯讨论油价、核电与清洁能源股票，但未披露具体公司级新催化

POWER POINT
What I'm hearing from energy insiders
First and foremost, I hope that everybody had a wonderful 4th of July holiday and celebrated the 250th birthday of this amazing nation.
As the celebrations ended and this week began, we seemed to be on a path to the Iran conflict winding down and the Strait of Hormuz being fully opened. But then Iran shot at a Qatari tanker, the U.S. retaliated and Trump said at the NATO Summit that the ceasefire was off.
Despite this news, oil prices remained relatively muted. WTI crude moved back above $75 per barrel at one point, but that's only back to levels of a few weeks ago. It is certainly possible oil inches even higher, but as we wrote recently, there is a lot of oil in the world and it's clear the market wants to push prices lower if it can.
MY TAKE → If you look out further on the futures curve, prices at the CME Group are still just above $70 later in the year. So the outlook for oil is relatively stable.
Still, with the chaos we are seeing inside Iran - the Ayatollah's son, who is ostensibly ruling the country, didn't even attend his own fathers funeral and it's unclear even if he's alive - where things are with oil in the next 24, 48 or 72 hours is anyone's guess. Stay nimble. It is likely going to stay very dicey for a while.
Another reason why the outlook for oil is remaining steady is because trading during this conflict has proven the extent of the ample energy supplies from America.
So back to what I wanted to talk about first in this newsletter: American exceptionalism and how our energy abundance contributes to that.
When you travel the world, energy stands out. Billions of people don't have easy or affordable access to electrical power. Here in America, our electricity costs are close to half that of Europe. Having relatively moderate energy costs is a massive benefit. That benefit isn't just to economic growth, but how families live.
Some of the reporting I'm most proud of is our early coverage of Europe's largely self-inflicted energy problems. Back in 2021 we reported from London about the UK's growing issue of energy poverty. "Energy poverty" is exactly what it sounds like: people not being able to afford all the heat, cooling or electricity they need to stay comfortable or even safe. Paying for high power costs can also often take away a person's ability to afford other necessities. Choosing between heating or eating is not a decision anyone should have to make in the 21st century. Sadly, many still do.
The issue isn't limited to the U.K. Across Europe, high energy costs have taken a toll. In a remarkable report last year, the European Commission admitted that:
"Exceptionally high prices had, and continue to have, serious implications for European households, industry, the broader economy and public finances."
According to GlobalElectricity.org., Europe's residential electricity prices are about 60% higher than what we have here in the U.S. Europe has massive natural gas resources, but has largely chosen to limit or even close them. The Eurozone is now reliant on imports to meet 90% of its oil and gas needs. The region has also booted nuclear power, closing a number of plants. That's a move that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called a "strategic mistake."
MY TAKE → Energy has played a role in economic and stock market outcomes. American GDP has soared over the last 20 years, far outpacing the European Union. It's not all because of poor energy policies, but those are clearly a factor.
The bottom line is that energy policy decisions have consequences. It's why American Clean Power CEO Jason Grumet smartly acknowledges below that we as a planet are going to need nearly all forms of energy. Read more below in Inside Line.
On the topic of energy, while we assume you probably don't directly buy barrels of oil, we are guessing you do buy gasoline. We also know you may be frustrated that gasoline prices have not fallen as fast as you would like. One question I'm frequently asked is why gasoline prices tend to go up faster than they go down.
There are two reasons.
First, station owners have to sell through the inventory they bought at higher prices. They don't want to lose money by selling below cost. Two, station owners - most of whom are simple family operations and not part of 'big oil' - will use price spikes to their advantage. Yes, there is what some people may call 'gouging,' but selling gasoline is an incredibly low margin business and often owners will have to make up for losses they take elsewhere.
FUN FACT→ Both my father and late grandfather owned gas stations for periods of time. My dad's station was in La Habra, California and my grandfather's was located in Stephens City, Virginia. Those were long ago, different times, but the stories and experiences still stick with me.
Here's the good news: absent some sudden twist, gasoline prices should keep coming down. In fact, I would expect that soon parts of Texas and Louisiana and the south will soon have average prices under $3 per gallon. If so, that would take a bite out of the inflation picture. Let's hope for peace and prosperity for all, including our friends and allies overseas.
WALL STREET'S TAKE
The oil and gas stocks all popped on that Iran news, but overall most are lower over the past month as crude has fallen. The upshot of that downmove is that many big name stocks are 20% or more below their average Wall Street analyst price target. Here's the FactSet screen I track.
Let's move on from oil and gas.
Listen up, all you nuclear energy bulls: small modular reactors may not be the next big thing. So says Bernstein. The research firm - now a part of French investment firm Societe Generale - is out with a bold new note that nukes a part of the nuclear thesis. Sort of.
Small modular reactors (SMR) have been the buzzy talking point the last few years. I won't go into exactly what they are other than they are small, modular, and yes, nuclear reactors. Joking aside, they are also not new. Nuclear powered submarines have been around for decades. The U.S.S. Nautilus was commissioned in 1954. It was powered by a form of SMR. If you want more info, here's a good white paper.
SMR has also been an energy theme. The next big thing is, apparently, small. But Bernstein says it's time to take a pause. The firm lays out 79 different SMR projects, liking some but admitting that not all nuclear ambitions are the same. The research is led by Bob Brackett, Ph.D.
Part of Brackett's rationale is that SMRs - while important - are mostly "second-wave options for small grids" and are good at replacing coal. He and his team say that the near-term trade is in "existing nuclear" with Constellation Energy (CEG) and Vistra (VST) set up as "early major beneficiaries." He believes CEG and VST will benefit from large existing "restart" projects, rather than trying to build all new nuclear and SMRs. Cameco (CCJ) is also seen as a big winner for investors. Not just is CCJ a huge uranium supplier - which is a critical nuclear fuel - but also because Cameco owns 49% of nuclear developer Westinghouse.
Speaking of GE Vernova (GEV), it has really become a hot energy stock lately. Shares keep hitting new record highs, though hit a bit of turbulence this week.
Still, the shares are up 25% since we spoke with CEO Scott Strazik back in March. The Binghamton, New York native was bullish … and right. Investors are realizing GEV is a giant of all things energy: nuclear, wind, hydro and natural gas. Wall Street's mean price target is $1,228 - which, like Bernstein - doesn't imply a lot of upside. Other analysts are more bullish. Evercore ISI's has a $1,350 target and Deutsche Bank isn't too far behind at $1,309. That said, caveat emptor! A few firms have targets below the current price. Mizuho Securities has a $913 target to go with their 'hold' rating.
Let's stay on solar. It's been a bit cloudy on shares of America's largest solar company, First Solar (F