📰 ReutersReutersCodex · 实盘不做把握 6/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 14:10:03时区推断·⟳ 抓取 14:13:12·⚡ 决策 07-30 23:50:08 +9h36m·89.0 天前
英美烟草上半年调整EPS超预期但伦敦股价收跌
官方口径是H1符合预期、FY26调整EPS从低端上修至5%-8%区间中部，但6月预收盘更新已提前披露Velo和New Categories动能，新增预期差有限。
📄 原文Reuters↗ 原文
British American Tobacco (BATS.L) reported first-half adjusted earnings per share growth of 7.9% on Thursday and lift…
不做 英美烟草（BATS.GB）
业绩为正负混合且伦敦市场已完整消化后收跌；EPS上修幅度小、核心Velo动能此前已预披露，追多无edge，负面又不足以满足强空红线。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- 英美烟草正式发布2026年半年报，披露调整后EPS增长7.9%、FY26调整EPS预期升至5%-8%区间中部，同时APMEA收入下降6.3%。
- Reuters以Velo需求强劲和EPS预测上调为主线扩散该业绩事件。
- LSE页面显示BATS.L为4626便士、跌2.41%，说明伦敦主市场已消化该业绩且未确认追多方向。市场反应:BATS.L 4626便士，-2.41%
关键理由
- 官方口径是H1符合预期、FY26调整EPS从低端上修至5%-8%区间中部，但6月预收盘更新已提前披露Velo和New Categories动能，新增预期差有限。
- 伦敦市场已完整交易一日，BATS.L收报4626便士、跌2.41%，市场没有把Reuters标题中的EPS上修定价成可追的利多。
- 公司市值约998亿英镑，单次中期业绩小幅上修不足以形成次日继续追多的短线edge；同时调整EPS和回购仍在，负面也不够强到开空。
主要风险
- 若后续卖方显著上调美国Velo/Vuse渗透率和中长期利润率，可能转为中期价值重估而非本事件短线交易。
- APMEA下滑和报告利润下降会压制情绪，但当前事件同时有调整EPS上修和回购支撑，不满足强空催化。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-30 · 影响 weakens
官方披露APMEA收入下降6.3%、报告经营利润下降15.8%，且BATS.L当日收跌，削弱追多。
检索:British American Tobacco H1 2026 results APMEA reported profit down market reaction 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-06-02 · 影响 weakens
Velo和New Categories强劲动能在6月预收盘更新中已提前披露，当前标题利好并非全新主线。
检索:British American Tobacco June 2026 pre-close Velo New Categories guidance lower end 5-8 EPS 原文 ↗ - 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-30 · 影响 weakens
调整EPS增长7.9%、全年EPS预期上修且13亿英镑回购仍在，负面不足以构成强空催化。
检索:British American Tobacco H1 2026 adjusted EPS growth guidance buyback 2026 原文 ↗
原文全文
展开原文 · 754 字
British American Tobacco (BATS.L) reported first-half adjusted earnings per share growth of 7.9% on Thursday and lifted its full-year EPS forecast to the middle of its 5-8% target range, as surging demand for its Velo nicotine pouches and a strong U.S. performance offset a sharp decline in Asia.
The results come as BAT grapples with the terminal decline of traditional cigarettes and pours investment into smoking alternatives, while pushing through a sweeping AI-driven overhaul aimed at lifting profitability.
The maker of Lucky Strike and Dunhill cigarettes reiterated its full-year guidance and posted adjusted earnings of 164 pence per share, above analyst forecasts of 158.5 pence, according to a company-compiled consensus.
The results come as BAT grapples with the terminal decline of traditional cigarettes and pours investment into smoking alternatives, while pushing through a sweeping AI-driven overhaul aimed at lifting profitability.
The maker of Lucky Strike and Dunhill cigarettes reiterated its full-year guidance and posted adjusted earnings of 164 pence per share, above analyst forecasts of 158.5 pence, according to a company-compiled consensus.
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