IBK看好HK inno.N的K-CAB美国上市与 royalty 增长，但核心FDA申请已是1月旧闻

HK inno.N is targeting the U.S. market beyond its top position in Korea's prescription market with its gastroesophageal reflux disease drug K-CAB, prompting brokerage forecasts that its global royalties will expand. Analysts also project that profitability will recover sharply in the second quarter this year, driven by stable growth in its prescription drug business and the normalization of its health beverage business.
IBK Investment & Securities estimated in a report on the 24th that HK inno.N (195940.KQ) will post second-quarter revenue of 264.4 billion won, up 0.5% from a year earlier. Operating profit is expected to rise 53% to 29.9 billion won, with the operating margin improving 3.9 percentage points to 11.3%. The brokerage attributed this to a base effect from the normalization of the health and beauty (H&B) business, which posted a loss in the second quarter of last year due to a beverage product recall and weak sales of "Condition."
The prescription drug business, which accounts for more than 90% of total revenue, is expected to be supported by growth in K-CAB prescriptions and expanded sales of intravenous fluids. K-CAB's domestic prescription value in the second quarter was 61.5 billion won, up 15.4% from a year earlier. While some revenue decline is expected from changes in the accounting treatment of drug price rebates and the termination of the distribution contract for the diabetes combination drug "Xigduo," the analysis found that K-CAB exports and increased royalties from China will offset the gap substantially.
The mid- to long-term growth driver is the U.S. market. Braintree, a subsidiary of U.S. partner Sebela Pharmaceuticals, submitted a new drug application for K-CAB to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in January this year. The application targets simultaneous approval for three indications, including the treatment and maintenance therapy of non-erosive gastroesophageal reflux disease and erosive esophagitis, with the approval decision scheduled for January next year.
"With the rapid growth of Voquezna, U.S. medical staff are accumulating experience in prescribing potassium-competitive acid blockers (P-CAB)," said Jung Yi-soo, a researcher at IBK Investment & Securities. "K-CAB will be able to increase its market share based on its clinical data and price competitiveness." He added, "After the U.S. launch in the first quarter of 2027, the visibility of local prescriptions and royalty revenue will increase."
Meanwhile, IBK Investment & Securities newly issued a "buy" investment opinion and a target price of 66,000 won for HK inno.N. The upside potential compared to the current stock price is 70.1%.