韩国五大券商二季度盈利预期创纪录

Major South Korean brokerages are expected to post record earnings once again, boosted by a stock market boom in the second quarter, when the KOSPI briefly broke through the 9,000 mark. A surge in trading value sharply increased brokerage commission income, while the wealth management (WM) and asset management divisions also performed strongly, pushing the combined quarterly operating profit of five major brokerages above 5 trillion won for the first time.
According to the financial investment industry on the 19th, the combined consolidated operating profit consensus (based on the past month) for five major brokerages — Mirae Asset Securities (006800.KS), Korea Investment Holdings, Samsung Securities (016360.KS), NH Investment & Securities (005940.KS) and Kiwoom Securities (039490.KS) — for the second quarter of this year came to 5.1278 trillion won. Net profit is estimated at 3.7482 trillion won.
This represents a 141.3% increase in operating profit and a 114.5% increase in net profit from the same period last year. Compared with the first quarter of this year, which was the largest ever on a quarterly basis, operating profit is projected to rise 17.9% and net profit 12.8%.
Behind the earnings improvement is the stock market boom. The KOSPI rose 67.8% during the second quarter, and on the 19th of this month it climbed as high as 9,385.59 intraday, marking a record high. As investor sentiment revived, the average daily trading value on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets reached 55.926 trillion won, up 27.6% from the first quarter (43.826 trillion won). On May 29 this year, combined trading value on the two markets soared to 92.484 trillion won.
"Not only stocks but also exchange-traded fund (ETF) trading value increased sharply, likely driving a significant rise in brokerage-related profits," said Kang Seung-gun, an analyst at KB Securities. "An increase in WM income on the back of strong sales of target-conversion financial products is also expected to contribute to the earnings improvement."
By individual brokerage, Mirae Asset Securities is expected to achieve the largest earnings. Its second-quarter operating profit is projected at 2.0405 trillion won, up 48.4% from the previous quarter, becoming the first in the industry to enter the "2 trillion won operating profit club." Samsung Securities at 693.1 billion won, NH Investment & Securities at 663.8 billion won, and Kiwoom Securities at 682.6 billion won are all expected to post increases from the previous quarter. In contrast, Korea Investment Holdings is estimated at 1.0478 trillion won, a 5.3% decline.
A key factor lifting Mirae Asset Securities' earnings is valuation gains on its SpaceX investment. "The core of the second-quarter earnings is the SpaceX valuation gain," said Park Hye-jin, an analyst at Daishin Securities. "Based on the June-end closing price of 170 dollars, a valuation gain of about 1.4699 trillion won is expected to be reflected." As a result, Mirae Asset Securities' total product operation profit and loss is projected at 1.78 trillion won, up 18.4% from the first quarter.
However, the recovery of the investment banking (IB) division is expected to be limited. "With dual-listing regulations and a high interest rate environment continuing, both the equity capital market (ECM) and the debt capital market (DCM) will remain sluggish," said Seol Yong-jin, an analyst at iM Securities. "The real estate project financing (PF) market is also in a situation where a recovery is still difficult to expect."