韩美半导体上半年业绩在HBM景气中逆势下滑，混合键合转型风险升温

Surging demand for artificial intelligence (AI) chips has driven the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market into a record boom, yet the growth of Hanmi Semiconductor — known as the "super supplier" of related equipment — has instead reversed. Concerns are emerging that the company's long-term growth could falter if it fails to make a rapid technological transition from the thermal compression TC bonder, where it has led the market, to the "hybrid bonder," the next-generation HBM stacking equipment.
According to the Financial Supervisory Service on the 4th, Hanmi Semiconductor (042700.KS) posted preliminary first-half revenue of 302.1 billion won and operating profit of 138.8 billion won. Revenue fell 7.7% and operating profit dropped about 11% from the same period last year. It is the first time half-year results have retreated year-on-year since the first half of 2023, when the chip market fell into a downturn.
The industry is focusing on the fact that Hanmi Semiconductor's earnings declined in the middle of a "super cycle," in which capital expenditure is rising as big tech firms expand their AI data center infrastructure. The market is also reacting to earnings that run counter to the industry cycle. Hanmi Semiconductor's share price surpassed 400,000 won per share in May but has recently slipped to around 200,000 won.
The first-half results are seen as exposing the limits of a business structure in which about 60% to 70% of revenue is concentrated in TC bonders. Hanmi Semiconductor ranked first with about a 70% share in the TC bonder market, which requires ultra-precision technology to vertically stack the microscopic bumps (micro-bumps) between DRAM chips using heat and pressure.
The problem is that the main process is set to shift to hybrid bonding, as 16-layer products become mainstream starting with the seventh-generation HBM4E, and stacking of 20 or more layers is pursued in HBM5. Hybrid bonding is a technology that directly bonds the copper pads and insulating film on the chip surface without using micro-bumps. It can reduce the gap between chips to lower product thickness and power consumption while increasing data transmission speed.
Once the hybrid bonding era begins in earnest, the competitiveness of Hanmi Semiconductor, which secured a high share in the TC bonder market, could also be shaken. In response, the company has announced a plan to invest a total of 100 billion won in hybrid bonder development and production facility construction, staking its future on the technological transition.
But the expanded investment is leading to a financial burden. In the first quarter of this year, Hanmi Semiconductor's research and development (R&D) spending as a share of revenue was 12.7%, three times the usual level (about 4%). The R&D spending ratio is expected to decline if second-half revenue recovers, but with the hybrid bonder and next-generation TC bonder being developed simultaneously, R&D costs are highly likely to keep rising.
Cash conditions have also tightened. Cash and cash equivalents stood at 174.7 billion won at the end of the first quarter this year, down 101.5 billion won from 276.2 billion won at the end of last year. Retained earnings also fell 56.9 billion won over the same period, from 639.2 billion won to 582.3 billion won. This is attributed to record dividends made amid expanded investment and heightened shareholder return demands. In addition, the 50 billion won invested in SpaceX stock is seen as highly likely to face valuation losses due to a share price decline.
Above all, the intensifying competitive environment poses a threat to the company's growth. Hanmi Semiconductor is the front-runner in the TC bonder market, but there is still no clear winner in hybrid bonders. Rival Hanwha Semitech has succeeded in developing a second-generation hybrid bonder and is conducting performance tests with customers, while LG Electronics is preparing to enter the field.
Hanmi Semiconductor's position is that it will secure hybrid bonder technological competitiveness along with an improvement in second-half earnings. "The delayed HBM4 equipment revenue will be reflected in the second half, achieving a significant improvement in earnings," a company official said. "Based on our capability to develop the first-generation hybrid bonder in 2020, we can secure technological competitiveness in second-generation equipment as well."