日经亚洲综述：CRB国际商品价格逼近18年高位，中东冲突+AI用铜需求+美元信心走弱推升全球通胀风险

TOKYO -- A broad gauge of international commodity prices is approaching its highest level in 18 years, driven in large part by fighting in the Middle East, growing demand tied to artificial intelligence and declining confidence in the dollar.
This risks fanning inflation, which could complicate monetary policymaking in major economies, since those policies had been premised on slowing price growth.
As of Tuesday, the FTSE/CoreCommodity CRB Index stood at around 420, roughly 30% higher than at the end of February, just before the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. The index is now near levels last seen in early August 2008, shortly before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, when crude oil and other resources were soaring.
It is also within roughly 10% of the record high of about 474 recorded in July 2008.
One factor is the situation in the Middle East. Since the conflict between the U.S. and Iran began at the end of February, the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy shipments, has been effectively closed. International crude oil benchmarks are currently more than 30% above pre-conflict levels, while natural gas benchmarks in Europe and Asia have more than doubled.
Growing demand from emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and decarbonization efforts are also having an impact. Copper, typically used in power cables for infrastructure and household appliances, "is rising from expectations of stronger demand from data centers and electric vehicles as AI adoption and electrification advance," said Kazutomo Nomura, a director at Mizuho Bank.
International copper prices hit a fresh high on Monday, the first in about seven months.
A third factor is weakening confidence in the dollar. A weaker dollar tends to lift dollar-denominated commodity prices. Gold in particular has risen roughly fivefold from 2008 levels. Deteriorating public finances and changes in central bank posture are key factors, according to Nicholas Frappell, global head of institutional markets at Australia's ABC Refinery.
Central banks worldwide have stepped up gold purchases since 2022 amid concerns over U.S. fiscal conditions and the potential freezing of dollar-denominated assets, supporting gold prices.
The current commodities rally differs from previous episodes in that crude oil, the biggest weight in the CRB Index, remains below the highs reached in 2008 and 2022 even as the overall index approaches record territory.
The 2008 surge was driven by a sharp increase in resource demand from rapid economic growth in China, while the 2022 spike reflected supply concerns following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said the 2008 oil rally reflected structural tightness in supply and demand as China's appetite for oil surged while spare production capacity was depleted.
Regarding this year, he noted that although supply disruptions were significant, large inventories and increased U.S. production helped avoid oil price spikes on the scale seen in 2008 or 2022. However, refining markets remain structurally tight and refining margins have risen sharply, he added.
"Multiple forces are operating simultaneously: supply concerns linked to the Middle East crisis, a structural rise in demand from AI and a shift away from the dollar," said Koichi Fujishiro at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.
As a result, gains have spread beyond energy to precious and non-ferrous metals, boosting the index.
The impact of higher prices extends beyond commodity markets. Global inflation had been expected to fall from a peak of 8.7% in 2022 to 4.1% in 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund.
But the IMF's July update to its World Economic Outlook projected inflation would accelerate again to 4.7% in 2026.
"The disinflation trend in place since the beginning of 2024 has stalled," the organization said, pointing to factors such as developments in the Middle East.
The inflation resurgence could complicate monetary policymaking in major economies, which had been premised on slowing price growth. In the U.S., President Donald Trump has urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further, but inflationary pressures stemming from higher commodity prices could limit the room for additional easing.
Japan, which relies heavily on natural resource imports, is particularly vulnerable.
"The weaker yen is compounding upward price pressures across a broad range of imported goods," said Tsuyoshi Ueno, senior economist at NLI Research Institute.
A prolonged period of yen weakness and elevated commodity prices could weigh on households and corporate profits, hitting the Japanese economy more broadly.