韩媒综述：中国前9月承接全球76%新船订单，韩国船厂强Q3业绩遭遇劳资纠纷拖累

China has captured three-quarters of the world's new shipbuilding orders this year, expanding its grip on the global market, while South Korean shipbuilders are mired in labor disputes. Construction of vessels ordered years ago at high prices is now in full swing, pointing to strong third-quarter earnings, but industry officials warn that strikes and drawn-out wage talks could undermine production stability and delivery reliability.
The union at HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180) will hold a membership vote on the 27th on a second tentative agreement in this year's wage and collective bargaining talks, according to the shipbuilding industry on the 26th. The second proposal, reached by labor and management on the 23rd, centers on a 120,000-won increase in base pay, a lump-sum payment of 11.5 million won and a bonus equal to 200% of contractual wages. After the first agreement was rejected on the 2nd with 52.14% voting against, management added 500,000 won to the lump-sum payment. In the interim, the union staged partial strikes of seven hours a day from the 19th to the 23rd, and the union chapter leader pressured management by staging a protest atop a crane. Approval would bring an end to the protracted negotiations, while another rejection would prolong the conflict.
The situation at Hanwha Ocean (042660) is more complicated, as talks with both the regular-worker union and the subcontractor union are stalled. The regular-worker union is at odds with management over the formula for performance pay and the rehiring of workers who have reached retirement age, and its chapter leader has been staging a high-altitude protest on a crane at the Geoje shipyard since the 8th. Talks between the prime contractor and the subcontractor union have also stalled over disagreements on the scope of bargaining items. The two sides will hold a fourth round of talks on the 29th.
Amid the labor disputes, shipbuilders will report third-quarter results in succession this week. Hanwha Ocean goes first on the 27th, followed by HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries on the 28th and Samsung Heavy Industries (010140) on the 29th. Combined third-quarter operating profit at HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering, Hanwha Ocean and Samsung Heavy Industries is forecast at 2.47 trillion won, up more than 56% from a year earlier, according to financial data provider FnGuide. Vessels won at high prices several years ago are now being recognized as construction revenue.
The concern is that the gap with China in order competition, which determines future earnings, keeps widening. China took 76% of the world's new ship orders in the January-September period, far ahead of South Korea's 15%, according to tallies by Clarksons Research, a British shipping and shipbuilding market analysis firm. The figures are based on compensated gross tonnage (CGT), which reflects the construction difficulty of each vessel type. South Korea's order volume rose 43% from a year earlier, but China's expanded 92% over the same period. China also holds 64% of the global order backlog, more than three times South Korea's 19%.
Chinese government data show an even wider gap. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said on the 23rd that domestic shipyards accounted for 81.8% of new orders in the January-September period, measured by deadweight tonnage (DWT). DWT is based on cargo-carrying capacity, a metric that favors China given its heavy exposure to bulk carriers and tankers. Still, because China's dominance is also clear on a CGT basis, which reflects construction difficulty, analysts say South Korean shipbuilders urgently need to strengthen their competitiveness. "Stable labor relations must underpin the technological strength and delivery reliability that are the strengths of Korean shipbuilding," an industry official said. "If production disruptions from strikes accumulate, they will inevitably weigh on delivery schedules and cost management."