NH投资证券给予Lunit病理AI业务SCOPE逾5000亿韩元估值，呼吁向AI药物发现重估

Lunit (328130.KQ) is expanding beyond artificial intelligence-based medical imaging into AI pathology and biomarker services used in drug development, and analysts now value that business at more than 500 billion won ($350 million). Because the company's existing cancer screening operations alone can account for much of its current market value, the analysis suggests the drug-development side of the business could be reflected in the share price later.
NH Investment & Securities said on the 26th in a report titled "2027: Moving Beyond Diagnostics Into an AI Drug Discovery Rerating" that it valued SCOPE, Lunit's AI pathology and biomarker business, at a minimum of 500 billion won. SCOPE uses AI to analyze pathology images, helping pharmaceutical companies identify patients more likely to respond to cancer drugs or discover new biomarkers. While Lunit's earlier AI diagnostics supported cancer detection at hospitals, SCOPE is used directly in drugmakers' clinical trials and in developing companion diagnostics, or CDx — a different type of business.
NH Investment & Securities based its valuation on recent acquisitions of global AI pathology companies. Applying a revenue multiple of about 13 times — the level implied by Agilent's announced acquisition this month of digital pathology firm Proscia — to SCOPE's projected revenue of 35 billion to 50 billion won next year yields a business value of roughly 460 billion to 650 billion won. SCOPE revenue is forecast to grow from about 10 billion won last year to 17 billion to 20 billion won this year and 35 billion to 50 billion won next year.
The upper end of the range is higher still. In May, Roche agreed to acquire AI pathology company PathAI for $750 million upfront plus up to $300 million in additional payments. NH Investment & Securities said the PathAI price cannot be applied directly to SCOPE, but described the deal as a case in which an AI pathology and biomarker business was valued at roughly 1.5 trillion won in the global market.
The brokerage valued Lunit's existing core operations separately. It estimated the combined business value of INSIGHT, Lunit's medical imaging and cancer screening line, and Volpara at about 800 billion won, applying a revenue multiple of nine times to this year's projected revenue of 90 billion won, with reference to acquisitions of global medical AI companies. Given that Lunit's market capitalization stood at about 841.4 billion won when the report was written, the screening business alone accounts for most of the company's current value, according to the analysis.
Recent partnerships with global companies are also cited as evidence of SCOPE's expansion into drug development. This month, Lunit began an AI pathology research collaboration with Summit Therapeutics on the development of the bispecific antibody ivonescimab. The aim is to use Lunit SCOPE IO to analyze the tumor microenvironment, identify biomarkers and stratify patient groups.
Last month, the company also began working with spatial biology firm 10x Genomics on cancer drug biomarker discovery. The partnership combines spatial molecular data generated by 10x Genomics with SCOPE's pathology image analysis to find biomarkers linked to treatment response and resistance in antibody-drug conjugates and immuno-oncology drugs. The deal signals that Lunit's customer base now extends beyond individual pharmaceutical projects to drug discovery research platform companies.
Key clinical results that could shape the direction of the AI biomarker industry are also due in the fourth quarter. AstraZeneca is set to release results from AVANZAR, a Phase 3 trial of the TROP2 antibody-drug conjugate Datroway in non-small cell lung cancer. It is the first global Phase 3 study to incorporate an AI biomarker into the trial design in advance, and the key question is how much treatment benefit improves not only across all patients but in the AI biomarker-positive group. Positive results would be expected to accelerate the expansion of AI biomarker-based trial design and the companion diagnostics market.
"Lunit has already signed revenue-generating research contracts with eight of the world's 20 largest pharmaceutical companies, and is conducting late-stage clinical and CDx-related research with three of them," NH Investment & Securities said. "Because there are still few commercialized cases using AI biomarkers, global clinical results will determine how quickly the SCOPE business expands."