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北京时间·🕒 发布 21:33:41时区推断·⟳ 抓取 21:34:08·⚡ 决策 07-28 21:36:20 +2m12s·90.8 天前

UPS二季度业绩超预期并上调全年指引,但三季度美国国内收入预计持平且股价盘初下跌

UPS二季度调整后EPS为1.76美元、收入228亿美元,均高于LSEG预期,并把2026年收入指引上调至约912亿美元、调整后EPS指引上调至约7.22美元。

📄 原文CNBC Top News↗ 原文
UPS raises full-year guidance but says it expects domestic third-quarter revenue to be flat
United Parcel Service on Tuesday posted second-quarter earnings results that beat Wall Street expectations and raised i…
不做 联合包裹服务(UPS.US)
排期内财报正负混合:全年指引上修不支持强空,三季度国内收入持平和盘初-6.9%又不支持追多;且未取得Futu可借券库存回执,当前不做。
不做 联邦快递(FDX.US)
FedEx只是行业竞争对手,UPS财报未披露对FedEx的直接收入、利润或份额新增事实,盘初小跌不足以构成独立交易催化。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

研究档案

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-28 · 扩散 high · price-in 风险 medium ↗ ↗

消息传播链

  1. 2026-07-14其它UPS投资者关系一手源原文 ↗
    UPS提前公告二季度财报将在2026-07-28约06:00 ET发布,说明本次披露是可预期财报日事件。
  2. 2026-07-28 06:00 ET官方确认/否认UPS投资者关系一手源原文 ↗
    UPS官方披露二季度收入228亿美元、调整后EPS 1.76美元,并上调全年收入和调整后EPS指引。
  3. 2026-07-28 09:33 ET财经媒体扩散CNBC非一手原文 ↗
    CNBC报道业绩超预期和上调全年展望,同时指出三季度国内收入预计持平、股价早盘下跌约7%。
    市场反应:UPS.US在09:35 UTC行情回执显示105.15美元,较前收112.95美元下跌6.91%。

关键理由

  • UPS二季度调整后EPS为1.76美元、收入228亿美元,均高于LSEG预期,并把2026年收入指引上调至约912亿美元、调整后EPS指引上调至约7.22美元。
  • 负面在于GAAP净利润同比从12.8亿美元降至6.04亿美元,且管理层预计三季度美国国内日均包裹量中个位数下滑、收入同比持平,市场盘初已用UPS.US约-6.9%定价该担忧。
  • 这是排期内财报,正负信息同时存在,且全年指引上修使其不构成清晰强空;盘中追空需要借券确认但行情回执未给可借券字段,做多又与盘面和Q3收入压力相冲突。

主要风险

  • 如果10:30 ET后管理层对Amazon glide-down后利润率修复给出更强量化目标,当前盘初下跌可能被部分修复。
  • 若后续卖方把三季度国内收入持平解读为需求见顶而非结构优化,UPS.US仍可能继续承压。

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 影响 none
    内部KB未命中同一UPS事件的旧闻,未提供可推翻财报正面项的额外反证。
    检索:UPS Q2 2026 earnings raised full-year outlook domestic third-quarter revenue flat Amazon glide-down
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 stock_quote · 日期 2026-07-28 · 影响 weakens
    UPS.US盘初已下跌6.91%,说明市场更重视三季度国内收入压力,追多与即时定价方向冲突。
    检索:UPS.US stock_quote full
  • 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-28 · 影响 weakens
    官方同时上调全年收入和调整后EPS指引,抵消三季度国内收入持平的看空强度,不满足清晰强空催化。
    检索:UPS official Q2 2026 earnings full year guidance raised EPS revenue 原文 ↗
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原文全文

展开原文 · 3,656 字
United Parcel Service on Tuesday posted second-quarter earnings results that beat Wall Street expectations and raised its full-year outlook, but said it expects domestic third-quarter revenue to be flat.
Shares of the delivery giant fell 7% in early trading.
Here's how the company performed in its second quarter, compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: $1.76 adjusted vs. $1.66 expected
- Revenue: $22.8 billion vs. $21.81 billion expected
For the quarter ended June 30, UPS reported net income of $604 million, or 71 cents per share, down significantly from $1.28 billion, or $1.51 per share, in the year-ago period. Adjusting for one-time items, the company reported a profit of $1.5 billion, or $1.76 per share.
Tune in at 10:30 a.m. ET as UPS CEO Carol Tomé joins CNBC TV to discuss earnings. Watch in real time on CNBC+ or the CNBC Pro stream.
The company also raised its full-year 2026 guidance, now expecting consolidated revenue of $91.2 billion and adjusted diluted EPS of roughly $7.22 per share.
CEO Carol Tomé said on a call with analysts on Tuesday that it was the "fourth straight quarter of delivering results that exceeded our expectations."
"Going forward, our number one priority remains moving the right packages and the right mix of volume through our network," she added.
Company executives said on the call that they expect the third quarter to see domestic average daily volume fall in the mid-single digits, due to a seasonal decline and the impact of the company gliding down its operations with Amazon. UPS also expects revenue to be flat year-over-year.
"If you ignore Amazon and the volume that we intentionally made available to the market, we actually grew our volume in the second quarter," Tomé said.
UPS is in the midst of a turnaround strategy aimed at positioning the company for long-term and sustainable growth. The company is focused on enhancing automation in its networks and tapping into growing markets, including healthcare logistics.
Tomé said on a call with analysts that healthcare generated more than $3 billion in revenue for the second consecutive quarter.
"We are the only carrier that provides end-to-end solutions for complex healthcare with our own assets, ensuring complete control, visibility and best-in-class service," she said.
For the second quarter, UPS reported a 6% increase in domestic revenue, driven by an increase in revenue per piece, and a 12.5% increase in international revenue. Supply chain solutions revenue rose 7.8%, in part due to growth in healthcare logistics.
The company added that it has achieved roughly $1.2 billion of program benefits from its network reconfiguration program, expecting to reach $3 billion by the end of the year.
On a call with analysts, Tomé said the company has successfully completed its glide-down with Amazon, eliminating roughly 2 million pieces per day of "lower quality Amazon volume" and removing roughly $4.5 billion of related expenses so far.
"We now have a leaner, more automated, more agile network that will deliver operating leverage as volume grows," she said.
The company is also investing in RFID and artificial intelligence to enhance its tracking capabilities, she added, which she said is "the most significant package visibility advancement in a decade."
Tomé said UPS is "seeing momentum" on the China to U.S. lane, which she said returned to year-over-year growth beginning in May.
"As we enter the second half of the year, we've got momentum, even in the face of external factors that could influence our results, like war and fuel price volatility," she said.

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