IEA预计日本2026年下半年批发电价同比上涨近40%，LNG成本冲击电力零售利润

TOKYO -- Average wholesale electricity prices in Japan are forecast to jump nearly 40% on the year in the second half of 2026, according to the International Energy Agency, reflecting higher liquefied natural gas prices due to the turmoil in the Middle East.
The organization expects prices to rise to $105 per megawatt-hour, based on past spot prices on the Japan Electric Power Exchange and July prices for Tokyo-area electricity futures listed on the European Energy Exchange. The wholesale market is among the sources from which power retailers buy electricity to sell to businesses and households.
Japan's projected 40% increase is larger than the roughly 25% hike expected for the European Union. Prices are forecast to decline in the U.S. and Australia.
The sharp upturn in Japan stems from the importance of imported LNG for power generation, an IEA spokesperson said. Natural gas was the largest component of the country's power mix in fiscal 2024 at 32%, and this fuel comes largely from overseas. That means Japan's electricity market is heavily affected by Asian LNG prices, which tend to rise alongside crude oil.
The U.S. and Australia produce their own natural gas. "U.S. LNG prices aren't linked to crude oil -- they've formed their own market," said Ryusuke Shida at Mitsubishi Research Institute. The EU, meanwhile, has countries that do not rely on natural gas, such as France and Spain, which generate much of their energy from nuclear and renewables, respectively.
Higher wholesale electricity prices weigh on profits for power retailers. When wholesale prices surged after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, power providers that had relied on buying energy on the market rather than generating it themselves saw their earnings worsen or were forced to pull out of the market entirely.
The price increase is likely to hit some businesses and households, as rates under some electricity plans are tied to market prices.
"Companies have made more efforts to avoid market risks than before, but power procurement costs will rise, which will be a headwind for businesses," Shida said.
Many corporate and individual customers have electricity plans that are not tied to market prices, meaning their rates are not directly affected. But Japanese power companies use a fuel cost adjustment system that passes on price changes with a lag of a few months, meaning rates are expected to climb going forward.