CNBC Top NewsCodex · 实盘不做把握 8/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 20:41:34时区推断·⟳ 抓取 20:43:15·⚡ 决策 07-31 20:44:52 +1m37s·88.2 天前
纽约州起诉 Kalshi 涉嫌非法经营赌博业务
本事件直接受损主体 Kalshi 为未上市公司,无法形成可执行同向交易。
📄 原文CNBC Top News↗ 原文
New York sues Kalshi, says prediction market is running 'illegal gambling operation'
New York state sued prediction market platform Kalshi on Friday, alleging that the company is running an "illegal gambl…
不做 Kalshi(KALSHI.PRIVATE)
直接受损主体未上市不可交易;对可交易博彩或券商标的只是间接监管背景,缺少明确同向短线传导,不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-31 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 medium ↗
关键理由
- 本事件直接受损主体 Kalshi 为未上市公司,无法形成可执行同向交易。
- 对体育博彩、券商或媒体投资方的影响链条过于间接,缺少短周期可量化收入或利润传导。
主要风险
- 若后续监管行动扩大到已上市公司直接运营的预测市场产品,需由新信号重新评估。
原文全文
展开原文 · 3,532 字
New York state sued prediction market platform Kalshi on Friday, alleging that the company is running an "illegal gambling operation."
In a case filed in a Manhattan state court, the lawsuit claims that Kalshi accepts wagers as a gambling business in disregard for the state's constitution and laws by not being registered with the New York State Gaming Commission.
"No matter what they call themselves, prediction markets like Kalshi are gambling platforms, plain and simple," said New York Attorney General Letitia James in a press release announcing the lawsuit. "By ignoring our laws, Kalshi is running an illegal operation and harming New Yorkers in the process."
Governor Kathy Hochul in the press release said the state is taking the action to stop what it views as illegal behavior and bring the company into compliance with New York law. The lawsuit is seeking a permanent injunction against Kalshi.
Kalshi, which has its headquarters offices in New York City, expressed disappointment with the decision by the state.
"It's sad to see this type of political theater from the leadership in our own state," a Kalshi spokesperson said in a statement. "States can't just shut down a federally licensed exchange… We love New York, we love New Yorkers, and New Yorkers love our product."
The suit by the state is also seeking a total restitution to users who have placed trades on the platform, a $100,000 penalty for each attempt to offer sports wagering, and another penalty three times the amount the company has gained while allegedly operating in violation of New York law.
Kalshi originally sued New York state in October after the state's Gaming Commission sent a cease and desist letter to the company. Earlier this month, a judge for the Southern District of New York denied the company's request for a preliminary injunction and temporary restraining order against the commission.
The same judge denied a request by Kalshi earlier this month for an injunction pending an appeal.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which sees itself as the federal regulator for prediction markets, filed for a temporary restraining order against enforcement actions by New York just before the state's lawsuit was announced. That comes after the CFTC in April sued the state, requesting a permanent injunction from enforcing its state laws on commission-registered platforms.
States across the country are locked in battles with the federal government and platforms over prediction markets, which have seen their volumes surge as their sports-related event contracts have become popular with retail traders.
Kalshi — along with other prediction market platforms — and the CFTC believe all event contracts are swaps, and thus are exclusively regulated by the commission. However, states across the country believe the sports offerings are equivalent to sports betting, which is regulated by them.
44 state attorneys General on Monday sent a letter to the CFTC, claiming that the commission has no right to regulate sports-related event contracts, as part of a public comment period for the agency's first draft of regulations on prediction markets.
While New York cited Kalshi's sports offering as the reason for its lawsuit, the state also went further. It claims in the lawsuit that the company's elections, culture and some other event contract offerings also put it in contradiction with the state's laws.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
In a case filed in a Manhattan state court, the lawsuit claims that Kalshi accepts wagers as a gambling business in disregard for the state's constitution and laws by not being registered with the New York State Gaming Commission.
"No matter what they call themselves, prediction markets like Kalshi are gambling platforms, plain and simple," said New York Attorney General Letitia James in a press release announcing the lawsuit. "By ignoring our laws, Kalshi is running an illegal operation and harming New Yorkers in the process."
Governor Kathy Hochul in the press release said the state is taking the action to stop what it views as illegal behavior and bring the company into compliance with New York law. The lawsuit is seeking a permanent injunction against Kalshi.
Kalshi, which has its headquarters offices in New York City, expressed disappointment with the decision by the state.
"It's sad to see this type of political theater from the leadership in our own state," a Kalshi spokesperson said in a statement. "States can't just shut down a federally licensed exchange… We love New York, we love New Yorkers, and New Yorkers love our product."
The suit by the state is also seeking a total restitution to users who have placed trades on the platform, a $100,000 penalty for each attempt to offer sports wagering, and another penalty three times the amount the company has gained while allegedly operating in violation of New York law.
Kalshi originally sued New York state in October after the state's Gaming Commission sent a cease and desist letter to the company. Earlier this month, a judge for the Southern District of New York denied the company's request for a preliminary injunction and temporary restraining order against the commission.
The same judge denied a request by Kalshi earlier this month for an injunction pending an appeal.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which sees itself as the federal regulator for prediction markets, filed for a temporary restraining order against enforcement actions by New York just before the state's lawsuit was announced. That comes after the CFTC in April sued the state, requesting a permanent injunction from enforcing its state laws on commission-registered platforms.
States across the country are locked in battles with the federal government and platforms over prediction markets, which have seen their volumes surge as their sports-related event contracts have become popular with retail traders.
Kalshi — along with other prediction market platforms — and the CFTC believe all event contracts are swaps, and thus are exclusively regulated by the commission. However, states across the country believe the sports offerings are equivalent to sports betting, which is regulated by them.
44 state attorneys General on Monday sent a letter to the CFTC, claiming that the commission has no right to regulate sports-related event contracts, as part of a public comment period for the agency's first draft of regulations on prediction markets.
While New York cited Kalshi's sports offering as the reason for its lawsuit, the state also went further. It claims in the lawsuit that the company's elections, culture and some other event contract offerings also put it in contradiction with the state's laws.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
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