Com2uS新游《The Stigmata of Zeus》韩国上线，但短线业绩弹性仍待验证

Com2uS faces a test of its revenue growth with the launch of "The Stigmata of Zeus," its new title known as "Zeus." First-half results showed that the company has already restored profitability through cost efficiencies. Its next challenge is to revive revenue growth with new titles including Zeus.
Com2uS said on Aug. 24 that it has begun PC and mobile pre-downloads for Zeus, a massively multiplayer online role-playing game (MMORPG) developed by AButton. The game will officially launch at noon on Aug. 26, initially in South Korea.
The new title comes as Com2uS seeks to build on an improvement in profitability. Second-quarter consolidated revenue fell 15% from a year earlier to 157 billion won, while operating profit jumped 420% to 7.2 billion won. On a standalone basis, first-half operating profit reached 12.3 billion won, already surpassing the 2.6 billion won recorded for all of last year.
The profit increase came from lower costs rather than revenue growth. Second-quarter standalone marketing expenses fell 30% from a year earlier to 15.4 billion won, while commissions declined 17% to 50.4 billion won. Com2uS attributed the reductions to more efficient promotional spending on live games and diversification of payment channels, including web stores.
That leaves Com2uS with the task of restoring top-line growth. Standalone second-quarter role-playing game (RPG) revenue fell 15% from a year earlier to 62.4 billion won. Sports game revenue, meanwhile, increased 11% to 68.9 billion won. Baseball titles benefited from seasonal demand and new products, pushing sports revenue above RPG revenue.
Zeus is Com2uS' first major attempt in the second half to change that revenue mix. Given the company's long-standing association with RPGs, the title is expected to serve as a gauge of whether Com2uS can broaden a revenue base that currently relies heavily on baseball games.
Zeus, however, is unlikely to immediately lift third-quarter earnings. Revenue will only be reflected from Aug. 26 through Sept. 30, while launch-related marketing expenses will be concentrated in the quarter. Kiwoom Securities estimated in an Aug. 18 report that third-quarter marketing expenses will reach 23.5 billion won, about 8.1 billion won higher than the actual second-quarter level. Kiwoom forecasts third-quarter consolidated operating profit of 6.2 billion won. For the fourth quarter, when a full quarter of Zeus revenue will be reflected, it expects revenue of 216.9 billion won and operating profit of 15.3 billion won.
Analysts differ significantly in their expectations for Zeus. NH Investment & Securities analyst Ahn Jae-min estimated in an Aug. 14 report that the game will generate revenue of 10.2 billion won in the third quarter and 24.3 billion won in the fourth, equivalent to average daily revenue of 300 million won and 270 million won, respectively. Samsung Securities analyst Oh Dong-hwan assumed average daily revenue of 800 million won in the first quarter after launch in a report issued the same day. Kiwoom Securities analyst Kim Jin-goo forecast average daily revenue of 750 million won for the third quarter in an Aug. 18 report. Forecasts therefore range from 300 million won to 800 million won a day, a difference of more than twofold.
The game's design suggests Com2uS is targeting revenue over the medium to long term. Zeus is designed to ease the competitive structure in which top-spending users dominate major rewards. Players can choose player-versus-player (PvP) content based on their character progression and play style. An artificial intelligence (AI) mode allows hunting, character progression, marketplace transactions and item management to continue even when players are not connected to the game server. The economy-focused Artisan class, an integrated inter-server marketplace and "Midas' Vault" link currency generation and trading with character progression.
The core strategy is to broaden the player base and improve long-term retention rather than maximize revenue from high-spending users at launch. Kiwoom Securities also said Zeus could lower the spending burden per user compared with conventional competitive MMORPGs, potentially allowing it to appeal to low- and mid-spending players as well.
The fourth quarter will be the key test. If Zeus maintains revenue in line with expectations, Com2uS could shift from a profit recovery driven by cost cuts to a phase in which revenue growth and profitability improve together. If the game falls short of market expectations, concerns could resurface that the company lacks a new growth engine capable of offsetting declining RPG revenue despite growth in its baseball games.
"As Zeus is considered the biggest title in Com2uS' new-game lineup this year, the scale of its success is expected to determine the direction of the company's share price," Samsung Securities analyst Oh said in an Aug. 14 report.