Nikkei Asia BusinessCodex · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·源无时间·以抓取为准·⟳ 抓取 18:11:12·⚡ 决策 07-31 18:17:22 +6m10s·88.0 天前
日经将把爱德万测试在日经225中的计算权重自10月1日起下调
日经称爱德万测试（6857.JP）7月31日收盘后权重达12.2%，触发10% cap规则，10月1日起调整因子由7.2降至6.4，形成约11.1%的指数技术减持压力。
📄 原文Nikkei Asia Business↗ 原文
Nikkei to lower Advantest's weight in Nikkei 225
TOKYO -- Nikkei will reduce the weighting of Advantest in the Nikkei 225 from Oct. 1, applying a cap intended to preven…
不做 爱德万测试（6857.JP）
事件方向偏空但只是10月1日生效的指数技术减权，非经营损害；同时7月29日业绩上修后股价7月31日已+16.34%，基本面动量强，且定稿前stock_quote两次超时未返回ok，不满足ENTER所需实时价契约，当前不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- 2026-07-31 15:00 JST市场反应stock_tools price_snapshot非一手爱德万测试（6857.JP）在本事件发布前已收于32500日元、当日+16.34%，上涨主要发生在日经减权公告前。市场反应:事件前当日+16.34%，近5日+12.28%。
- Nikkei Asia披露日经将自10月1日起把爱德万测试日经225计算因子从7.2降至6.4，因7月31日基准权重12.2%超过10%上限。市场反应:日本市场已收盘，连续交易不可成交。
关键理由
- 日经称爱德万测试（6857.JP）7月31日收盘后权重达12.2%，触发10% cap规则，10月1日起调整因子由7.2降至6.4，形成约11.1%的指数技术减持压力。
- 这不是经营利润、订单或指引下修，真正被动资金交易点在10月1日附近，当前到实施日还有两个月，短线负面更偏技术流而非基本面损害。
- 爱德万测试（6857.JP）7月29日刚上修FY2026收入20.7%、营业利润34.8%，7月31日收盘价32500日元、当日+16.34%，强基本面动量削弱立即追空的胜率。
主要风险
- 若下周开盘主动资金先兑现指数减权预期，短线可能低开下挫；但无实时stock_quote返回ok，不能按契约发ENTER空单。
- 若AI测试需求继续被资金重估，指数减权带来的技术卖压可能被基本面买盘吸收。
反向证据
- 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-29 · 影响 weakens
公司刚因AI相关半导体测试需求显著超预期而上修全年收入和利润预测，削弱单纯因指数技术减权开空的基本面胜率。
检索:Advantest 2026年7月29日 业绩上修 AI测试需求 原文 ↗ - 做空前查反向 · 来源 price_snapshot · 日期 2026-07-31 · 影响 weakens
爱德万测试（6857.JP）7月31日收盘+16.34%、近5日+12.28%，说明业绩上修后的强势资金仍在重定价，开空容易遭遇动量反抽。
检索:6857.JP price_snapshot 近20日走势 - 做空前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 影响 none
内部KB检索实际调用但服务超时，未取得额外可量化卖压或反证。
检索:Advantest Nikkei 225 weight cap reduced factor 7.2 6.4 October 2026 passive selling index rebalance
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(5 种)
- search_processed_events · 结果未知
- stock_quote · 结果未知
- kb_search · 结果未知
- price_snapshot · 结果未知
- search_case_library · 结果未知
原文全文
展开原文 · 946 字
TOKYO -- Nikkei will reduce the weighting of Advantest in the Nikkei 225 from Oct. 1, applying a cap intended to prevent any single constituent from becoming overly dominant.
Based on the shares' July 31 closing price, the reference date for this autumn's periodic review, Advantest accounted for 12.2% of the index. This was above the 10% level that triggers the cap rule introduced in 2022.
The Nikkei 225 is calculated using constituent share prices, multiplied by a price adjustment factor, which reflects past capital changes. Nikkei currently applies a factor of 7.2 and will reduce it to 6.4, starting in October.
Further adjustments or removal of the cap will be decided in connection with the semiannual reviews following next spring.
The capping rule was first applied in the autumn of 2024 to Fast Retailing. It was applied again in the spring of 2025. Advantest was also subject to the rule during the index's spring review this year.
Based on the shares' July 31 closing price, the reference date for this autumn's periodic review, Advantest accounted for 12.2% of the index. This was above the 10% level that triggers the cap rule introduced in 2022.
The Nikkei 225 is calculated using constituent share prices, multiplied by a price adjustment factor, which reflects past capital changes. Nikkei currently applies a factor of 7.2 and will reduce it to 6.4, starting in October.
Further adjustments or removal of the cap will be decided in connection with the semiannual reviews following next spring.
The capping rule was first applied in the autumn of 2024 to Fast Retailing. It was applied again in the spring of 2025. Advantest was also subject to the rule during the index's spring review this year.
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