ReutersCodex · 实盘不做把握 8/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 07-16 23:59:38时区推断·⟳ 抓取 01:35:06·⚡ 决策 07-17 02:13:29 +38m23s·102.7 天前
Kalshi将推出临床试验和FDA审批结果预测合约
Kalshi开放的是围绕药物审批和试验结果的预测市场，不是Gilead或Summit药物本身的临床/FDA新结果。
📄 原文Reuters↗ 原文
Prediction market platform Kalshi will start taking bets on the outcomes of clinical trials and FDA regulatory reviews,…
不做 Gilead Sciences（GILD.US）
仅为预测合约上线，未披露anito-cel审批或临床新结果，不做。
不做 Summit Therapeutics（SMMT.US）
仅为预测合约上线，未披露ivonescimab审批或临床新结果，不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-16 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 low ↗
消息传播链
- Kalshi宣布将与AppliedXL推出临床试验和FDA审批预测合约。
关键理由
- Kalshi开放的是围绕药物审批和试验结果的预测市场，不是Gilead或Summit药物本身的临床/FDA新结果。
主要风险
- 若预测市场价格后续显著揭示某药物审批概率变化，可能成为辅助信号，但当前报道未给出概率或医学数据。
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(2 种)
- stock_quote · 结果未知
- kb_search · 结果未知
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,604 字
Prediction market platform Kalshi will start taking bets on the outcomes of clinical trials and FDA regulatory reviews, it said on Thursday, making drug-development odds public for the first time.
The new markets will be launched in partnership with AppliedXL, which monitors and predicts the outcomes of clinical trials.
The markets allow investors to act on a view about a single drug, instead of the entire company, Kalshi said.
People will be able to bet only on the outcomes of late-stage trials as a part of the pilot program. Kalshi and AppliedXL will list a contract only after a trial finishes enrolling.
Each contract will be based on details of a named public document — the registered primary endpoint on ClinicalTrials.gov, the FDA approval letter or the voting record of the agency's advisory committee.
AppliedXL will define the criteria for reading that document before the contract opens for trading, not after results arrive.
Contracts available at launch include more than a dozen U.S. Food and Drug Administration decisions, including whether it will approve Gilead's (GILD.O) experimental cancer drug, anito-cel, and Summit Therapeutics' experimental lung cancer drug, ivonescimab.
Other bets include if an early Alzheimer's disease drug being developed by AriBio will meet the main goals of a late-stage trial.
The platform will require employment verification for all traders and prohibit trading by anyone who holds material nonpublic information.
Launched in 2021, Kalshi allows people to bet on events such as sports, election outcomes and weather.
The new markets will be launched in partnership with AppliedXL, which monitors and predicts the outcomes of clinical trials.
The markets allow investors to act on a view about a single drug, instead of the entire company, Kalshi said.
People will be able to bet only on the outcomes of late-stage trials as a part of the pilot program. Kalshi and AppliedXL will list a contract only after a trial finishes enrolling.
Each contract will be based on details of a named public document — the registered primary endpoint on ClinicalTrials.gov, the FDA approval letter or the voting record of the agency's advisory committee.
AppliedXL will define the criteria for reading that document before the contract opens for trading, not after results arrive.
Contracts available at launch include more than a dozen U.S. Food and Drug Administration decisions, including whether it will approve Gilead's (GILD.O) experimental cancer drug, anito-cel, and Summit Therapeutics' experimental lung cancer drug, ivonescimab.
Other bets include if an early Alzheimer's disease drug being developed by AriBio will meet the main goals of a late-stage trial.
The platform will require employment verification for all traders and prohibit trading by anyone who holds material nonpublic information.
Launched in 2021, Kalshi allows people to bet on events such as sports, election outcomes and weather.
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