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北京时间·🕒 发布 06:01:10时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06:01:49·⚡ 决策 08-04 06:25:01 +23m12s·84.5 天前
韩华航天终止与Vertical Aerospace的4548亿韩元eVTOL部件合同
韩华航天披露终止与Vertical Aerospace金额4548亿韩元的eVTOL部件开发和供货合同，对Vertical是可点名核心项目供应链中断。
📄 原文The Elec English↗ 原文
Hanwha Aerospace Terminates 454.8 Billion-Won eVTOL Components Agreement With Vertical Aerospace
이전 기사보기 다음 기사보기 Hanwha Aerospace Terminates 454.8 Billion-Won eVTOL Components Agreement With Vertical Aerospace Charac…
逾期 · 盘前盘后行情未就绪计划建仓日 08-04(标的市场当地)
日 K 取自复盘打分切片 · 蓝点/蓝虚线 = 纸面入场价 · 灰虚线 = 纸面离场 · 持有期红底 = 赚(做空:价格在入场线下方)、绿底 = 亏
💡 交易逻辑关键VX4部件合同终止，小盘未反应
怎么做空 开盘做空 不设价格下限（市价成交）
怎么平空 止盈 -6%(半仓)/-12%(清仓) · 止损 +8% · 时间止损 5日
不做 Hanwha Aerospace（012450.KS）
4548亿韩元合同终止对韩华方向为负，但分多年履约且UAM非核心，相对其防务主业和市值不够强，不开空。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
分时走势
做空 EVTL.US Vertical Aerospace
建仓日早于近 30 天,只有日线图
成交明细 · 纸面
做空 EVTL.US Vertical Aerospace
| 收益状态 | 逾期 盘前盘后行情未就绪 |
|---|---|
| 进场成交 | — |
| 离场成交 | — |
| 建仓日 | 2026-08-04 · 进场不早于新闻时刻 + 2 分钟 |
收益口径 event_time_plus_2min_10min_walk_open_topup_to_next_open_exchange_calendar_fill_model_local_notional_v9 · method_id m8db1cbc8f2d · 截至 2026-10-27 17:46
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-08-03 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 low ↗
消息传播链
- 报道称韩华航天8月3日披露终止4548亿韩元Vertical Aerospace eVTOL部件开发和供货合同。市场反应:012450.KS已收919000韩元，当日+0.22%；EVTL.US已收1.27美元，当日+2.42%，未反映该盘后消息。
关键理由
- 韩华航天披露终止与Vertical Aerospace金额4548亿韩元的eVTOL部件开发和供货合同，对Vertical是可点名核心项目供应链中断。
- 按EVTL.US约1.62亿美元市值衡量，4548亿韩元合同名义规模显著高于其市值，若需替换供应商可能压制VX4认证和现金消耗预期。
- 先例显示合同/客户流失类事件方向偏负，但同一标的高相似样本不足，故只做probe空头并压低止盈目标。
主要风险
- Vertical可能已提前安排替代供应商或主动调整采购范围，若公司快速澄清合同终止不影响VX4里程碑，空头应撤。
- EVTL为低价小盘股，且最高相似先例仅1条，可能出现低开后反抽，不能追深跌。
反向证据
- 做空前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 影响 none
内部KB未命中能抵消本次合同终止的Vertical官方替代供应商或项目不受影响证据。
检索:Vertical Aerospace Hanwha Aerospace VX4 actuator tilting blade pitch system supplier termination cash runway 2026 - 做空前查反向 · 来源 search_case_library · 日期 2026-07 · 影响 weakens
Vertical近期有英国政府支持洽谈和沙特合作备忘录等正面背景，但多为探索/支持性质，不能抵消核心部件合同终止。
检索:EVTL.US recent government support Saudi MOU July 2026
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例没有推翻空头方向，但把首轮10%-20%止盈收紧到6%-12%，并维持probe仓位与5日时间止损。
方向:相似度加权3日中位约-6.5%、加权胜率约37%，方向偏空但不是高胜率碾压。
涨幅量级:唯一高相似首发样本EVTL 2024-05-24为+3日约持平、+5日-2.8%；中相似样本负面更强但不能用来定本次幅度。
形态:合同/客户流失常在次日低开完成主要重估，AVAV和WKHS均显示后续反抽风险，追深跌不划算。
历史先例(按相似度)
- 相似度 9/10 EVTL.US 2024-05-24 Vertical与Rolls-Royce同意退出VX4电动推进系统合同，需寻找替代EPU供应商。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 -2.6% · +2日 -5.0% · +3日 +0.1% · +4日 -1.5% · +5日 -2.8%
相似度依据:同一标的、同一VX4供应链退出，只是本次合同金额更大且对方为韩华。
经验:Vertical同类供应商退出次日低开后未持续大跌，说明空头要用试探仓并盯公司是否解释不影响里程碑。 - 相似度 7/10 EVTL.US 2023-08-09 Vertical VX4原型机在无人测试飞行中坠毁，打击认证进度叙事。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 -1.9% · +2日 -1.3% · +3日 +0.6% · +4日 -7.0% · +5日 -15.4%
相似度依据:同一标的、同一VX4进度风险，但事故不同于商业合同终止。
经验:项目硬事故当日杀跌明显、5日继续下探，说明认证节奏被质疑时小盘eVTOL会延续重估。 - 相似度 7/10 AVAV.US 2026-03-10 AeroVironment披露Space Force SCAR项目终止，相关未拨款backlog不再预期授予并计提减值。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 -6.2% · +2日 -4.4% · +3日 -6.5% · +4日 -4.4% · +5日 +0.4%
相似度依据:航空合同终止且金额/预期重大，但AVAV主业更成熟、测量对象是供应商。
经验:正式合同终止叠加业绩披露会带来次日约6%下跌，但5日可反弹，空头时间窗不宜过长。 - 相似度 6/10 VRRM.US 2026-05-26 Verra Mobility收到Avis Budget终止合同通知，客户贡献超过10%收入并下修全年指引。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 -70.6% · +2日 -68.4% · +3日 -65.5% · +4日 -62.6% · +5日 -68.2%
相似度依据:同为正式合同终止且高占比，但行业、商业成熟度和客户/供应商方向不同。
经验:当合同终止能量化为收入/利润缺口时，次日会一次性深跌，说明重大性数字比行业题材更重要。 - 相似度 5/10 FWRD.US 2026-05-07 Forward Air披露最大客户之一可能将大量业务转给其他供应商，约2.5亿美元收入。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 -43.0% · +2日 -39.6% · +3日 -47.0% · +4日 -49.6% · +5日 -45.8%
⚠锚前1-2日已异动13.2%>锚定日5.6% — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
相似度依据:同为客户/合同流失导致重估，但仍处讨论阶段且不是航空项目。
经验:即使只是客户转单讨论，只要占收入约10%且叠加战略失败，市场也会快速下修。 - 相似度 5/10 WKHS.US 2021-02-23 USPS宣布将NGDV十年合同授予Oshkosh，Workhorse失去核心订单预期。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 -8.1% · +2日 +14.6% · +3日 -1.8% · +4日 +5.3% · +5日 -2.0%
相似度依据:高风险EV平台失去关键订单预期，但Workhorse是未中标而非既有供应链被撤。
经验:核心订单预期归零会当日暴跌，随后有技术反抽，做空应避免在已崩后追空过深。 - 相似度 4/10 JOBY.US 2022-02-16 Joby披露一架远程驾驶实验原型机在加州测试飞行中发生事故。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 -9.0% · +2日 -14.2% · +3日 -11.3% · +4日 -19.1% · +5日 -14.6%
⚠锚前1-2日已异动26.9%>锚定日8.1% — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
相似度依据:同为eVTOL项目风险但锚前异动强、不是合同事件，不能定幅度。
经验:同业项目事故的负面方向清楚，但锚前异动提醒不能用偏晚或混杂窗口机械定目标。
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(7 种)
- search_processed_events · 结果未知
- stock_quote · 结果未知
- kb_search · 结果未知
- search_case_library · 结果未知
- normalize_ticker · 结果未知
- validate_order · 结果未知
- event_study · 结果未知
原文全文
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다음 기사보기
Hanwha Aerospace Terminates 454.8 Billion-Won eVTOL Components Agreement With Vertical Aerospace
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스크롤 이동 상태바
Defense·Energy
Companies agree to end VX4 supply contract and pursue future cooperation through new MOU
EunGyu Kim
Published 2026.08.04 07:01
Reply 0
이 기사를 공유합니다
Vertical Aerospace's VX4 electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft.
Hanwha Aerospace has terminated a 454.8 billion won contract with UK urban air mobility (UAM) developer Vertical Aerospace for the development and supply of components for electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft.
The South Korean aerospace and defense company disclosed on Aug. 3 that it had ended its agreement with Vertical Aerospace covering the development and supply of electromechanical actuators (EMAs) and tilt-and-blade pitch systems for the VX4 aircraft. The terminated contract was valued at 454.8 billion won.
"Since signing the agreement, both parties have faithfully fulfilled their contractual obligations," Hanwha Aerospace said. "However, changes in market conditions and business priorities compared with the original objectives of the project led the companies to mutually agree to terminate the contract based on strategic considerations."
The partnership began in August 2022 with a 219.2 billion won agreement for the development and supply of EMAs for the VX4 program. Under that contract, Hanwha Aerospace was to jointly develop and supply three types of EMAs for Vertical Aerospace's VX4 aircraft.
In June 2023, the two companies signed a memorandum of agreement (MOA) to add tilt and blade pitch systems to the project. A revised contract signed in October 2023 incorporated those additions and expanded the total contract value to 454.8 billion won.
Hanwha Aerospace had planned to supply key actuation systems for Vertical Aerospace's VX4 eVTOL aircraft and participate in aircraft certification and production system development. The VX4 has been designed as a piloted eVTOL aircraft capable of carrying one pilot and four passengers.
The business environment, however, has changed as development of the global UAM industry has progressed more slowly than expected. Delays in type certification schedules for eVTOL aircraft and a prolonged slowdown in investment activity have pushed back commercialization timelines across the sector.
Rather than continuing the existing supply agreement, the companies signed a new memorandum of understanding (MOU) covering cooperation on similar development programs and future production-supply projects. Hanwha Aerospace said it plans to maintain its relationship with Vertical Aerospace through follow-on initiatives.
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다음 기사보기
Hanwha Aerospace Terminates 454.8 Billion-Won eVTOL Components Agreement With Vertical Aerospace
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스크롤 이동 상태바
Defense·Energy
Companies agree to end VX4 supply contract and pursue future cooperation through new MOU
EunGyu Kim
Published 2026.08.04 07:01
Reply 0
이 기사를 공유합니다
Vertical Aerospace's VX4 electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft.
Hanwha Aerospace has terminated a 454.8 billion won contract with UK urban air mobility (UAM) developer Vertical Aerospace for the development and supply of components for electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft.
The South Korean aerospace and defense company disclosed on Aug. 3 that it had ended its agreement with Vertical Aerospace covering the development and supply of electromechanical actuators (EMAs) and tilt-and-blade pitch systems for the VX4 aircraft. The terminated contract was valued at 454.8 billion won.
"Since signing the agreement, both parties have faithfully fulfilled their contractual obligations," Hanwha Aerospace said. "However, changes in market conditions and business priorities compared with the original objectives of the project led the companies to mutually agree to terminate the contract based on strategic considerations."
The partnership began in August 2022 with a 219.2 billion won agreement for the development and supply of EMAs for the VX4 program. Under that contract, Hanwha Aerospace was to jointly develop and supply three types of EMAs for Vertical Aerospace's VX4 aircraft.
In June 2023, the two companies signed a memorandum of agreement (MOA) to add tilt and blade pitch systems to the project. A revised contract signed in October 2023 incorporated those additions and expanded the total contract value to 454.8 billion won.
Hanwha Aerospace had planned to supply key actuation systems for Vertical Aerospace's VX4 eVTOL aircraft and participate in aircraft certification and production system development. The VX4 has been designed as a piloted eVTOL aircraft capable of carrying one pilot and four passengers.
The business environment, however, has changed as development of the global UAM industry has progressed more slowly than expected. Delays in type certification schedules for eVTOL aircraft and a prolonged slowdown in investment activity have pushed back commercialization timelines across the sector.
Rather than continuing the existing supply agreement, the companies signed a new memorandum of understanding (MOU) covering cooperation on similar development programs and future production-supply projects. Hanwha Aerospace said it plans to maintain its relationship with Vertical Aerospace through follow-on initiatives.
giddk1206@thelec.kr
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4
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5
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6
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7
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8
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