The BlockDoubao · 实盘不做把握 8/10不做原因:风险收益比不佳
北京时间·🕒 发布 21:00:00·⟳ 抓取 21:00:19 +19s·⚡ 决策 10-20 21:01:32 +1m13s·6.8 天前
Coinbase 与 The Block 联合报告称稳定币每小时平均转移超4亿美元,属行业统计而非公司级新增催化
这是一份Coinbase参与联合署名的行业研究/思想领导力报告,内容为稳定币行业聚合转移量统计与远期预测,不含任何上市公司的新增收入、订单、客户、指引、产品或监管事实;对COIN等大市值标的属典型软催化,没有可量化的事件增量与时间边界,做多缺乏正期望edge,亦无任何利空支持做空。
📄 原文The Block↗ 原文
Stablecoins move over $400 million per hour on average as off-hours transfers dominate, Coinbase and The Block study fi…
不做 Coinbase Global(COIN.US)
联合署名的行业研究仅提供稳定币聚合采用数据,无公司级新增收入/指引/合同事实,对大市值标的属软催化,无风险收益edge;盘前不可成交亦不构成隔夜追主题的理由
不做 Circle Internet Group(CRCL.US)
报告未量化USDC/Circle新增份额或储备收益,仅为长期采用叙事,主题联动缺乏直接因果与量级,不做
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
Coinbase与The Block报告给出的是全行业稳定币采用量统计和2027/2030远期叙事,无公司级增量财务事实;对Coinbase、Circle等仅是长期主题背书,不构成短线可交易催化,故回避。
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-10-20 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 low ↗
关键理由
- 报告全部为行业聚合数据与第三方预测(McKinsey等),未披露任何上市公司可验证的新增业绩或合同事实
- Coinbase作为联合发布方,报告具宣传属性,市场难以据此修正其收入或盈利预期,属低预期差软信息
主要风险
- 稳定币立法等独立催化剂若同期落地,可能带动板块,但那将是另一事件,不能用本报告充当下单依据
- 盘前若市场将其作为加密叙事炒作,COIN/CRCL可能波动,但无基本面锚点,追高风险大于事件edge
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-10-20 · 影响 weakens
正文与已知信息中无任何收入上修、新客户/合同、监管批准或回购等公司级正面surprise,报告系行业统计与远期叙事
检索:Coinbase Circle stablecoin report revenue impact guidance October 2026 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例缺失叠加软催化性质,支持回避而非用主题联动标的试探
方向:无可对照的公司级事件先例;行业思想领导力报告不属于有明确价格锚的事件类别
涨幅量级:无对齐先例可校准幅度,且缺乏公司级基本面增量,不具备设定tp/sl的基础
形态:不适用
工具执行结果 · 成功 1 · 降级 0 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
- search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 12 ms
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原文全文
展开原文 · 3,290 字
Stablecoins move over $400 million per hour on average as off-hours transfers dominate, Coinbase and The Block study finds
Stablecoins are on track to reach $1.5 trillion in quarterly adjusted transfer volume by the end of 2027 at current growth rates, according to the report.
Quick Take
- A new report from Coinbase and The Block Pro Research says people moved more than $400 million in stablecoins per hour on average in organic transfer activity during the third quarter of this year.
- Around 73% of screened stablecoin transfer volume occurred outside U.S. banking hours over the 12 months ending July 31, highlighting demand for around-the-clock payments.
People are moving more than $400 million worth of stablecoins per hour on average, with the majority settled outside of U.S. banking hours, according to a new study from Coinbase and The Block Pro Research.
The report, titled "The Always-On Dollar," found that stablecoins moved more than $400 million per hour on average in organic transfer activity during the third quarter. Over the 12 months ending July 31, around 73% took place outside U.S. banking hours.
"For businesses, that availability can also make working capital more productive," the study said. "Faster settlement can reduce delays and the need to fund payment accounts in advance, leaving more cash available for operations or investment rather than tied up supporting transfers."
For retail users, stablecoins help save on remittance fees. Sending a $200 remittance in USDC on Base is about 86% cheaper than sending the amount on traditional rails, per the report. This can meaningfully benefit migrant workers, it noted.
With the growing understanding of such benefits, adjusted stablecoin transaction volume has quadrupled since the start of 2023, reaching $891 billion in Q3. Stablecoins are on track to reach $1.5 trillion in quarterly adjusted transfer volume by the end of 2027 at current growth rates, according to the report.
The full impact of stablecoin adoption has yet to be realized. Moving 80% of international transactions onto stablecoin rails could inject an additional $155 billion into global annual GDP, according to the report.
In the agentic economy
Some 293 million unique blockchain addresses now hold stablecoins, exceeding the combined cardholder base of American Express and Discover, and nearly double the mobile banking user count of JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citi combined. However, blockchain addresses do not necessarily represent individual users.
Wall Street isn't staying on the sidelines — seven of the ten largest U.S. banks have already tested stablecoins or tokenized deposits for settlement, with the remaining three signaling plans to follow.
Looking ahead, the report argued that stablecoins will likely be the payment rail for AI agents. By 2030, $3 trillion to $5 trillion of global business-to-consumer commerce is expected to be mediated by AI agents, according to McKinsey.
"With stablecoins, an AI agent can pay another agent for a task, purchase a single API call, or buy a small amount of data or compute on demand," the report said. "This makes tiny, one-off transactions practical without a subscription or billing account – a model legacy payment systems were not built to support."
Stablecoins are on track to reach $1.5 trillion in quarterly adjusted transfer volume by the end of 2027 at current growth rates, according to the report.
Quick Take
- A new report from Coinbase and The Block Pro Research says people moved more than $400 million in stablecoins per hour on average in organic transfer activity during the third quarter of this year.
- Around 73% of screened stablecoin transfer volume occurred outside U.S. banking hours over the 12 months ending July 31, highlighting demand for around-the-clock payments.
People are moving more than $400 million worth of stablecoins per hour on average, with the majority settled outside of U.S. banking hours, according to a new study from Coinbase and The Block Pro Research.
The report, titled "The Always-On Dollar," found that stablecoins moved more than $400 million per hour on average in organic transfer activity during the third quarter. Over the 12 months ending July 31, around 73% took place outside U.S. banking hours.
"For businesses, that availability can also make working capital more productive," the study said. "Faster settlement can reduce delays and the need to fund payment accounts in advance, leaving more cash available for operations or investment rather than tied up supporting transfers."
For retail users, stablecoins help save on remittance fees. Sending a $200 remittance in USDC on Base is about 86% cheaper than sending the amount on traditional rails, per the report. This can meaningfully benefit migrant workers, it noted.
With the growing understanding of such benefits, adjusted stablecoin transaction volume has quadrupled since the start of 2023, reaching $891 billion in Q3. Stablecoins are on track to reach $1.5 trillion in quarterly adjusted transfer volume by the end of 2027 at current growth rates, according to the report.
The full impact of stablecoin adoption has yet to be realized. Moving 80% of international transactions onto stablecoin rails could inject an additional $155 billion into global annual GDP, according to the report.
In the agentic economy
Some 293 million unique blockchain addresses now hold stablecoins, exceeding the combined cardholder base of American Express and Discover, and nearly double the mobile banking user count of JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citi combined. However, blockchain addresses do not necessarily represent individual users.
Wall Street isn't staying on the sidelines — seven of the ten largest U.S. banks have already tested stablecoins or tokenized deposits for settlement, with the remaining three signaling plans to follow.
Looking ahead, the report argued that stablecoins will likely be the payment rail for AI agents. By 2030, $3 trillion to $5 trillion of global business-to-consumer commerce is expected to be mediated by AI agents, according to McKinsey.
"With stablecoins, an AI agent can pay another agent for a task, purchase a single API call, or buy a small amount of data or compute on demand," the report said. "This makes tiny, one-off transactions practical without a subscription or billing account – a model legacy payment systems were not built to support."
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