CNBC Top NewsCodex · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 21:38:44(美东 09:38)·⟳ 抓取 21:39:42 +58s·⚡ 决策 08-19 21:41:04 +1m22s·68.8 天前
Cantor将为机构客户接入Kalshi预测市场大宗交易
事件本身利好Kalshi及其私有交易生态，但Kalshi、Cantor和Susquehanna均非直接可交易上市主体。
📄 原文CNBC Top News↗ 原文
Hedge funds are about to jump into prediction markets in a big way
Cantor Fitzgerald will be one of the first investment firms providing its clients institutional trading on prediction m…
不做 Robinhood Markets（HOOD.US）
行业扩容逻辑成立但本条没有给Robinhood新增收入、客户或平台选型胜出，无法形成可量化edge。
不做 Interactive Brokers Group（IBKR.US）
IBKR只是既有事件合约入口之一，本次Cantor-Kalshi安排未直接增加IBKR业务量。
不做 CME Group（CME.US）
Kalshi机构化对CME既有行业验证也有竞争分流，方向和量级都不足以做多或做空。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- WSJ最早报道Cantor向机构客户开放Kalshi预测市场大宗交易安排。
- CNBC转述并补充Kalshi与CNBC存在商业关系披露，扩大主流财经传播。
关键理由
- 事件本身利好Kalshi及其私有交易生态，但Kalshi、Cantor和Susquehanna均非直接可交易上市主体。
- 对Robinhood、Interactive Brokers和CME的传导只是预测市场赛道扩容或竞争变化，缺少可量化的新增收入、订单或份额迁移。
- 量级上，正文未披露交易规模、费率、客户承诺或收入分成，无法估算对任何上市公司的收入或市值增量。
主要风险
- 若后续披露Cantor客户大额迁移至Kalshi并挤压上市券商事件合约流量，才可能形成对HOOD.US或IBKR.US的竞争性利空。
- 预测市场仍受CFTC和州级监管约束，监管变化可能改变行业估值，但本条未给出新的监管结论。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2025-03-17 · 影响 weakens
Robinhood确有Kalshi事件合约入口，但本条新闻没有给Robinhood新增流量、收入或独家权益。
检索:Robinhood Kalshi prediction markets revenue materiality Cantor arrangement 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 影响 weakens
IBKR已聚合多个预测市场入口，Cantor-Kalshi机构合作不构成IBKR的独立新增催化。
检索:Interactive Brokers prediction markets Kalshi ForecastEx CME access 原文 ↗ - 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-08-19 · 影响 none
Kalshi机构化可能加剧竞争，但未披露足以证明CME或上市券商短期收入受损的迁移规模。
检索:Kalshi institutional prediction markets competition CME event contracts Cantor 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例不足使本次只保留行业观察，不给上市公司交易订单。
方向:没有足够同市场、同机制、同相位的上市标的先例可用于校准方向。
涨幅量级:缺少可交易上市主体和披露金额，无法用先例给出涨跌幅锚。
形态:未发现可迁移的高相似样本；行业合作类新闻常需要后续交易量或收入披露才可定价。
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,180 字
Cantor Fitzgerald will be one of the first investment firms providing its clients institutional trading on prediction market platform Kalshi, the company announced Wednesday morning.
"Prediction markets are growing rapidly, but institutional participation has not kept pace because investors have lacked the ability to transact at scale on a regulated exchange. The liquidity is here," said Pascal Bandelier, co-CEO and global head of equities at Cantor in a press release.
The global investment firm will serve as a broker, meaning it will organize the block trades on Kalshi's event contracts for its clients. Block trades are large, privately negotiated transactions that are typically executed outside of a public market to avoid price volatility, and are a feature of trading by large Wall Street firms.
Susquehanna International Group will provide pricing and liquidity as a market maker in these trades with Cantor's clients. The company's head of business development, Joe Grubb, sees institutional risk transfer as the next step for prediction markets' material growth.
Cantor first reached out to Kalshi a few months back, Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said. The global investment bank can also request that the prediction market design new markets for clients to trade on.
"We will submit it to the CFTC and we have to make sure there is enough liquidity," Diana said. Clients would be interested in Kalshi's climate, weather and economic indicator markets, she added.
The Wall Street Journal first reported on the arrangement.
Wednesday's announcement marks the latest move by Kalshi to appeal to Wall Street. The company has increasingly focused on professional investors even as retail traders up until now have driven its rise, primarily trading on the platform's sports-related event contracts.
Kalshi completed the first block trade on an event contract exchange back in April, and has announced a series of partnerships and internal initiatives this year to give institutional clients comfort with participating in a novel asset class.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
"Prediction markets are growing rapidly, but institutional participation has not kept pace because investors have lacked the ability to transact at scale on a regulated exchange. The liquidity is here," said Pascal Bandelier, co-CEO and global head of equities at Cantor in a press release.
The global investment firm will serve as a broker, meaning it will organize the block trades on Kalshi's event contracts for its clients. Block trades are large, privately negotiated transactions that are typically executed outside of a public market to avoid price volatility, and are a feature of trading by large Wall Street firms.
Susquehanna International Group will provide pricing and liquidity as a market maker in these trades with Cantor's clients. The company's head of business development, Joe Grubb, sees institutional risk transfer as the next step for prediction markets' material growth.
Cantor first reached out to Kalshi a few months back, Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said. The global investment bank can also request that the prediction market design new markets for clients to trade on.
"We will submit it to the CFTC and we have to make sure there is enough liquidity," Diana said. Clients would be interested in Kalshi's climate, weather and economic indicator markets, she added.
The Wall Street Journal first reported on the arrangement.
Wednesday's announcement marks the latest move by Kalshi to appeal to Wall Street. The company has increasingly focused on professional investors even as retail traders up until now have driven its rise, primarily trading on the platform's sports-related event contracts.
Kalshi completed the first block trade on an event contract exchange back in April, and has announced a series of partnerships and internal initiatives this year to give institutional clients comfort with participating in a novel asset class.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
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