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CNBC Top NewsCodex · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 21:48:48(美东 09:48)·⟳ 抓取 21:49:19 +31s·⚡ 决策 08-20 21:50:23 +1m04s·67.7 天前

沃尔玛二季度收入超预期并上调全年展望,但美国同店销售低于预期且股价盘中大跌

财报收入和全年指引上调是正面增量,但美国同店销售低于预期、健康与保健业务受药价上限拖累,削弱短线追多逻辑。

📄 原文CNBC Top News↗ 原文
Walmart hikes full-year outlook and gets huge tariff refund, but stock falls on sales concerns
Walmart on Thursday posted quarterly sales that beat Wall Street estimates and raised its outlook for the year, as it s…
不做 沃尔玛(WMT.US)
财报正负混合且属于日历内事件;收入和指引上调削弱做空,低于预期的同店销售和盘中大跌又削弱追多,当前无清晰正期望入场点。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

研究档案

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-08-20 · 扩散 high · price-in 风险 high ↗ ↗ ↗

消息传播链

  1. 2026-08-20 09:48 ET首发CNBC非一手原文 ↗
    CNBC披露沃尔玛FY2027二季度收入超预期、全年展望上调,但美国同店销售低于预期且盘中股价下跌超过8%。
    市场反应:CNBC正文称沃尔玛股价周四早盘下跌超过8%。
  2. 2026-08-20财经媒体扩散AP非一手原文 ↗
    AP强调美国同店销售增速为六年来最慢,药价下行拖累健康与保健业务,并称股价盘前下跌约6%。
    市场反应:盘前下跌约6%。
  3. 2026-08-20财经媒体扩散MarketWatch非一手原文 ↗
    MarketWatch同样聚焦药价下降拖累美国销售,但指出收入和EPS均好于预期、全年销售展望上调。
    市场反应:报道称股价下跌近7%。

关键理由

  • 财报收入和全年指引上调是正面增量,但美国同店销售低于预期、健康与保健业务受药价上限拖累,削弱短线追多逻辑。
  • 29亿美元关税退款改善毛利率但公司计划用于降价,未必直接转化为利润弹性;同时略高于20亿美元燃油成本逆风抵消部分利好。
  • 作为超大市值零售龙头,财报属于日历内事件,盘中已出现超过8%的重定价,当前缺少可量化且未消化的新增edge。

主要风险

  • 若后续管理层在电话会中确认同店销售放缓或燃油成本压力持续,股价仍可能延续财报后调整。
  • 反向风险是全年收入和EPS指引已上调,且电商、广告和会员收入仍强,直接做空容易被基本面韧性抵消。

反向证据

  • 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-08-20 · 影响 weakens
    公司上调全年收入和EPS指引,全球电商增长23%、广告收入增长38%、会员费收入增长17%,削弱直接做空确定性。
    检索:Walmart Q2 2027 earnings raised guidance ecommerce advertising membership growth 原文 ↗
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-08-20 · 影响 weakens
    美国同店销售2.6%低于预期且燃油成本逆风略高于20亿美元,股价已盘中大跌,削弱财报后追多edge。
    检索:Walmart Q2 2027 US comparable sales miss fuel cost headwinds stock down 原文 ↗

先例如何影响了这次决策

对本次决策的影响:先例不足使本次不应在盘中追空或抄底,只保留不做结论。

方向:未取得可用于定量校准的同市场同机制先例;日历内零售龙头财报通常更依赖相对一致预期与盘中重定价。

涨幅量级:缺少高相似先例,不能据此设定做多或做空幅度。

形态:本次已出现盘中大幅下跌,且财报正负混合,见光死风险已体现在价格中。

原文全文

展开原文 · 4,676 字
Walmart on Thursday posted quarterly sales that beat Wall Street estimates and raised its outlook for the year, as it saw another strong quarter of e-commerce growth and benefited from tariff refunds.
"Our business is strong," CFO John David Rainey told CNBC. "We feel really good about the progress we're making."
The retailer said revenue rose 5.9% in its fiscal second quarter as e-commerce sales jumped 23% globally. Walmart also said U.S. comparable sales grew 2.6%, offset in part by a 0.8% headwind in its health and wellness business as price caps on certain drugs took effect. That was less than the 3.5% increase Wall Street expected, according to FactSet.
Shares of Walmart sank more than 8% in morning trading Thursday.
For the third quarter, Walmart said it expects net sales to increase between 3% and 3.75% and adjusted earnings per share to be between 62 cents and 64 cents.
The retailer expects net sales to increase between 4% and 5% for the year, compared with a previous outlook of between 3.5% and 4.5% growth. Walmart also anticipates adjusted earnings will be between $2.80 and $2.87 per share, compared with the prior guidance of between $2.75 and $2.85 per share.
Rainey told CNBC the company was eligible to receive roughly $2.9 billion in tariff refunds, and it has yet to get back just under $100 million of that total. Rainey said that Walmart plans to use those funds to lower prices for consumers, and that impact will be seen in the third quarter.
He added that Walmart also expects to incur just over $2 billion of "incremental cost headwinds related to higher fuel prices this year."
Programming note: Walmart CFO John David Rainey will speak to CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" at 10 a.m. ET. Watch live on CNBC and CNBC+.
Walmart's efforts to lower prices come as many shoppers have cut back on spending as they feel a strain from high fuel and food costs. The company is typically well positioned to weather pullbacks due to its value reputation and its scale as the largest U.S. retailer.
Rainey said Walmart continues to see consumers stretched thin, especially with higher gas prices. It's lowering prices across categories, including beef, he added.
"But consumers are still spending, and real wage growth is keeping pace, and so they've been very resilient in this environment," Rainey told CNBC. "But all that said, we would love to be able to bring prices down more and see less pressure on their wallets."
Here's how the company performed in its fiscal second quarter compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: 81 cents adjusted, it was not immediately clear if it compared to the 74 cents expected
- Revenue: $187.94 billion vs. $186.77 billion expected
For the three-month period ended July 31, Walmart reported net income of $6.37 billion, or 80 cents per share, compared with $7.03 billion, or 88 cents per share, in the year-ago period. Excluding the impact of a loss on investments and including a benefit from what it called a tax matter, Walmart reported adjusted earnings per share of 81 cents. The company's gross profit rate grew to 25.4%, boosted by the tariff refund benefit.
Total revenue climbed to $187.94 billion from $177.40 billion in the year-earlier period.
The results come as Walmart posts a stretch of solid growth, fueled by gains in segments like pickup and delivery, its third-party marketplace, and advertising. The discounter has gained market share with higher-income customers in recent years as it tries to make shopping more convenient and adds perks to its Walmart+ membership, an Amazon Prime competitor.
Walmart said companywide membership fee revenue jumped 17%, with net adds for Walmart+ hitting a high for a second quarter. Sam's Club U.S. saw net sales of $25.7 billion for the quarter, up 8.8% from the previous year, as membership fees climbed 6%.
Meanwhile, Walmart said its global advertising revenue climbed 38%.
In the U.S., Walmart reported net sales of $125.2 billion compared with $120.9 billion in the year-ago period. Internationally, the company saw $35.2 billion in net sales, compared with $31.2 billion. It said its global inventory was up 6.7% for the quarter.
Rainey said a significant portion of that inventory was related to more expensive and elevated brands as Walmart saw the biggest component of its market share gains coming from the high-income consumer.
While its grocery segment saw mid-single-digit percentage point growth, health and wellness saw a low single-digit decline for the quarter. General merchandise revenue was up slightly due to strength in toys and fashion, furniture and private label.

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