CNBC Top NewsCodex · 实盘可交易 · 做多市场:美股▼ 亏 -1.00% · 已结算把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 21:24:15时区推断·⟳ 抓取 21:24:29·⚡ 决策 07-30 21:39:48 +15m19s·88.9 天前
星巴克三季度业绩超预期并上调全年EPS与同店销售指引
星巴克三季度调整后EPS为0.85美元,高于LSEG预期0.66美元,收入93.2亿美元也高于预期91.6亿美元。
📄 原文CNBC Top News↗ 原文
Starbucks raises full-year outlook as CEO tells CNBC the chain is winning back customer loyalty
Starbucks on Wednesday raised its full-year outlook after reporting its fourth straight quarter of same-store sales gro…
▼ 亏 -1.00%入场 07-30 盘前首笔 @107.32 → 离场 07-31 常规开盘 @106.58
日 K 取自复盘打分切片 · 蓝点/蓝虚线 = 纸面入场价 · 灰虚线 = 纸面离场 · 持有期红底 = 赚(价格在入场线上方)、绿底 = 亏
💡 交易逻辑业绩指引双超预期,仅低跳空小仓买
怎么买 限价买入 不高于 108.8、仅下一个交易日,不成交作废
怎么卖 止盈 +3%(半仓)/+5%(清仓) · 止损 -3% · 时间止损 2日
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
分时走势
做多 SBUX.US 星巴克
建仓日早于近 30 天,只有日线图
成交明细 · 纸面
做多 SBUX.US 星巴克
| 收益状态 | -1.00% 已平仓 |
|---|---|
| 进场成交 | 2026-07-30 · 盘前首笔 · 07-30 21:28 北京 · @107.317 |
| 离场成交 | 2026-07-31 · 常规开盘 · @106.58 |
| 毛收益 | -0.69% |
| 成本 | +0.32% |
| 净收益 | -1.00% |
| 计入收益 | -1.00% |
| 计入 | 同日重复,不计入曲线 |
| 建仓日 | 2026-07-30 · 进场不早于新闻时刻 + 2 分钟 |
收益口径 event_time_plus_2min_10min_walk_open_topup_to_next_open_exchange_calendar_fill_model_local_notional_v9 · method_id m8db1cbc8f2d · 截至 2026-10-27 19:39
研究档案
消息传播链
- 公司发布2026财年三季度业绩并上调全年EPS及同店销售指引;未抓到精确分钟,按财报发布日记录。
- CNBC报道EPS、收入、同店销售均超预期,并称盘后股价最高上涨约9%。市场反应:盘后最高约+9%。
- 花旗发布三季度最终点评,认为营收表现兑现但股价可能仍需要更多催化剂。
- 系统在美股开盘前6分钟抓到CNBC Top News转发,仍处于可挂开盘限价单窗口。
关键理由
- 星巴克三季度调整后EPS为0.85美元,高于LSEG预期0.66美元,收入93.2亿美元也高于预期91.6亿美元。
- 公司将2026财年调整后EPS指引从2.25-2.45美元上调至2.55-2.65美元,并把全球及美国同店销售增长目标分别提高至接近6%和超过6%。
- 同店销售增速7.9%高于StreetAccount预期6%,北美同店销售+8.1%、客流+4.5%,说明Back to Starbucks改善开始体现在经营量价上。
主要风险
- 盘后最高约+9%已提前重定价,先例显示SBUX高相似财报后3日中位几乎为0,开盘若高于约+5.5%不追。
- 高相似先例只有2条且一正一负,成熟餐饮龙头强财报常出现高开后余波不足,仓位压到probe并缩短持有窗。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-07-29 · 影响 weakens
花旗点评认为营收兑现但股价或需更多催化剂,构成追高后的估值反证但不否定本次业绩上修方向。
检索:Starbucks recent bearish risks coffee prices labor investment China competition store closures 2026 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-07-30 · 影响 none
KB命中星巴克三季度电话会纪要,未见与本次业绩上修相反的公司级证伪信息。
检索:Starbucks Q3 2026 earnings raised guidance same store sales Back to Starbucks margin coffee costs China joint venture analyst concerns 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-29 · 影响 weakens
CNBC正文提到出售中国控股权导致总收入同比下降1%、公司评估北美门店足迹,属于结构调整风险。
检索:CNBC Starbucks Q3 2026 China joint venture revenue down store closures 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例没有否定利好方向,但显著压低仓位、收紧买点,把首轮约+7%限价改为约+5.5%低跳空限价并缩短止盈止损。
方向:全样本相似度加权3日胜率约61%,但高相似SBUX样本只有2条且胜率50%,方向从首轮的明确看多降为低跳空才有edge。
涨幅量级:唯一可定量的high_similarity_first_print样本n=2,3日中位约0.01%、5日中位-1.34%,样本不足且不支持追9%跳空;目标位改为3%/5%。
形态:高相似样本一条-3.65%、一条+3.67%,成熟餐饮CMG和SHAK也显示强经营后余波有限;小盘SG/BROS的大涨不能移植到SBUX。
历史先例(按相似度)
- 相似度 9/10 SBUX 2021-07-27 星巴克FY21 Q3创纪录业绩并上调全年EPS和利润率指引,疫情恢复期强基数。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 -2.9% · +2日 -2.9% · +3日 -3.6% · +4日 -4.5% · +5日 -5.5%
相似度依据:同一公司、同为三季度强同店销售和全年指引上调,只是当时处于疫情复苏和股价已预热阶段。
经验:同一公司强财报若披露前已连续涨,公告后可能直接低开下杀,追高需要很窄限价。 - 相似度 8/10 SBUX 2023-11-02 星巴克FY23 Q4强业绩、同店+8%、全年业绩落在指引高端,更多是确认而非上调。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 +2.6% · +2日 +4.0% · +3日 +3.7% · +4日 +4.3% · +5日 +2.8%
相似度依据:同一公司、同样在低位后用强同店销售确认复苏,但当前多了明确全年EPS上调。
经验:SBUX在低预期后出现可见复苏时,跳空后仍可能有数日余温,但幅度通常只有低个位数。 - 相似度 7/10 SBUX 2023-05-02 星巴克FY23 Q2全球同店+11%、EPS强于预期,但未上调全年指引。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 -9.2% · +2日 -8.5% · +3日 -6.3% · +4日 -6.4% · +5日 -6.8%
相似度依据:同一公司和同店/EPS超预期相似,但没有全年指引上调,机制弱于当前。
经验:SBUX仅靠强季度数据不足以支撑续涨,市场会惩罚已拥挤或未上修指引的财报。 - 相似度 7/10 BROS 2024-05-07 Dutch Bros Q1 2024同店+10%、收入高增并上调全年收入和EBITDA指引。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 +11.8% · +2日 +15.4% · +3日 +26.8% · +4日 +23.8% · +5日 +26.9%
⚠锚前1-2日已异动5.2%>锚定日0.3% — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
相似度依据:同为咖啡连锁、同店高增和上调全年指引,但BROS市值小、门店扩张期弹性远高于SBUX。
经验:咖啡连锁beat-and-raise在小盘成长期可走出趋势,但SBUX只能借方向,不能借涨幅。 - 相似度 7/10 BROS 2025-08-06 Dutch Bros Q2 2025同店+6.1%、交易增长,且上调全年收入、同店和EBITDA指引。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 +21.6% · +2日 +14.3% · +3日 +16.8% · +4日 +19.1% · +5日 +16.9%
相似度依据:同为咖啡连锁的同店改善和指引上修,但规模、市值和成长阶段与SBUX不同。
经验:当指引上修同时来自交易量改善,市场会给高成长连锁较高溢价;大盘股需折价处理。 - 相似度 6/10 CAVA 2024-05-28 CAVA Q1 2024业绩后上调全年开店、同店、利润率和EBITDA指引。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 +7.0% · +2日 +13.1% · +3日 +12.3% · +4日 +6.8% · +5日 +7.2%
⚠锚前1-2日已异动6.9%>锚定日0.6% — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
相似度依据:同为餐饮同店销售和全年指引上调,但CAVA是高增长新股,弹性显著高于SBUX。
经验:高增长餐饮股的beat-and-raise能继续走强,但不能把小盘成长股的涨幅移植到SBUX。 - 相似度 6/10 BROS 2026-05-06 Dutch Bros Q1 2026收入+31%、同店+8.3%并上调全年多项指引。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 -9.3% · +2日 -10.8% · +3日 -13.4% · +4日 -14.2% · +5日 -18.1%
相似度依据:同为咖啡连锁beat-and-raise,但BROS高估值成长股对毛利率和预期差更敏感。
经验:同样上修指引也可能在估值拥挤时低开低走,说明开盘价比标题更关键。 - 相似度 6/10 CMG 2024-07-24 Chipotle Q2 2024同店+11.1%、交易+8.7%、利润率扩张并给出中高个位同店展望。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 -1.9% · +2日 -3.8% · +3日 -1.6% · +4日 +1.5% · +5日 +4.9%
相似度依据:同为成熟餐饮龙头同店强劲和利润率扩张,但估值、品牌和增长曲线不同,且没有明确EPS指引大幅上修。
经验:成熟餐饮龙头即使同店两位数,也可能在财报后先跌,说明强经营不等于追开盘有edge。 - 相似度 5/10 SG 2024-05-09 Sweetgreen Q1 2024后上调全年收入、同店、利润率和EBITDA指引。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 +34.0% · +2日 +37.4% · +3日 +35.6% · +4日 +35.4% · +5日 +34.9%
相似度依据:同为餐饮同店和全年指引上修,但Sweetgreen体量小、盈利拐点属性强,和SBUX相似度中等偏低。
经验:盈利拐点小盘餐饮的跳空可继续推升,但对成熟巨头只提示方向,不支撑目标涨幅。 - 相似度 5/10 SG 2024-08-08 Sweetgreen Q2 2024同店+9%、利润率改善并再次上调全年指引。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 +33.4% · +2日 +30.5% · +3日 +31.3% · +4日 +29.1% · +5日 +40.1%
⚠锚前1-2日已异动5.2%>锚定日1.7% — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
相似度依据:同为餐饮beat-and-raise,但小盘盈利拐点和高波动特征明显强于当前。
经验:第二次连续上修会强化小盘趋势,但SBUX这种成熟股不应套用30%级别涨幅。 - 相似度 5/10 SHAK 2024-05-02 Shake Shack Q1 2024营收和利润改善、同店趋势逐月加速,但全年上调力度较弱。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 +2.4% · +2日 +0.7% · +3日 +0.2% · +4日 -2.1% · +5日 +0.1%
相似度依据:同为餐饮链季度改善,但指引上修和全球体量不如当前匹配。
经验:改善趋势若缺少足够大的全年上修,财报后余波只有低个位数,不能追过高跳空。
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原文全文
展开原文 · 4,781 字
Starbucks on Wednesday raised its full-year outlook after reporting its fourth straight quarter of same-store sales growth.
For fiscal 2026, Starbucks now expects adjusted earnings per share in a range of $2.55 to $2.65, up from its prior outlook of $2.25 to $2.45 per share.
It now also projects global same-store sales will rise nearly 6% and U.S. same-store sales will climb more than 6%; the company was previously forecasting global and U.S. same-store sales growth of at least 5%.
"This was the quarter our momentum became truly measurable," CEO Brian Niccol said in a video shared with the company's earnings press release.
The coffee giant also reported quarterly earnings and revenue that topped analysts' expectations.
Shares of the company jumped as much as 9% in extended trading.
Here's what the company reported for the quarter ended June 28 compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: 85 cents adjusted vs. 66 cents expected
- Revenue: $9.32 billion vs. $9.16 billion expected
The coffee giant reported fiscal third-quarter net income attributable to Starbucks of $1.05 billion, or 91 cents per share, up from $558.3 million, or 49 cents per share, a year earlier.
The company's operating margins expanded to 13.6%, up from the year-ago period margins of 13.3%, thanks in part to tariff refunds. Starbucks did not say exactly how much it received in refunds.
"The refunds we received in Q3 largely offset related tariffs incurred in the first three quarters of fiscal 2026," CFO Cathy Smith said on the company's earnings conference call.
Excluding restructuring costs and other items, Starbucks earned 85 cents per share.
Net sales dropped 1% to $9.3 billion due to the company's sale of a controlling stake in its China business. In November, Starbucks announced it was forming a joint venture with Boyu Capital, which would take over operations in the coffee chain's second-largest market.
Although Starbucks' overall revenue fell, its sales at stores open at least 13 months climbed 7.9%, topping Wall Street estimates of 6%, according to StreetAccount.
The coffee chain reported increases in both transactions and average check, showing that customers are returning to its cafes and spending more on their orders.
Under Niccol's "Back to Starbucks" strategy, the company has focused on improving service and making cafes more welcoming in its home market. To do so, the chain has invested in labor and renovations to its coffee houses, earning some grumbling from investors. But the efforts seem to be paying off for Starbucks, which had seen its sales slump as it lost many of its loyal customers to competitors like Dutch Bros.
The company's North American same-store sales increased 8.1% in the quarter. Traffic to those restaurants jumped 4.5%. With a 3.5% increase in average ticket, customers were also spending more on their orders, paying to modify their lattes and adding food items alongside their drinks.
In addition to improving its operations, Starbucks has also retooled its menu, cutting unpopular items and launching new drinks. Niccol said the chain would test "spritzers" — sparkling versions of its Refreshers — in select markets.
Refreshers have grown to become a $2 billion drink platform for Starbucks and often drive customers to its cafes during the afternoon, helping fuel business outside of the morning coffee rush. In the fiscal third quarter, revenue from Refreshers climbed by a double-digit percentage, executives said.
Outside of Starbucks' home market, same-store sales rose 5.7%. With the formation of the China joint venture, roughly 90% of the company's international locations are now licensed, according to Niccol. The asset-light model is often more attractive to investors, who like the long-term lift to earnings the structure usually brings.
During the quarter, Starbucks opened 175 net new stores and surpassed 1,000 cafe "uplifts," reaching its fiscal 2026 goal ahead of schedule. Starbucks is now targeting at least 1,500 store renovations by the end of fiscal 2026 and accelerating its plans further in the next fiscal year.
The cafe makeovers cost roughly $150,000 on average and result in higher transactions, Niccol said on the company's earnings conference call. The changes vary based on location, but generally customers can expect more seating, warmer lighting and dark wood paneling.
Smith also said that the company is assessing its North American store footprint, which could result in it shuttering more stores. In fiscal 2025, the company's North America footprint shrank by 1% due to closures.
Correction: This story was updated to correct that Starbucks' North American same-store sales rose 8.1%. A previous version misstated the figure.
For fiscal 2026, Starbucks now expects adjusted earnings per share in a range of $2.55 to $2.65, up from its prior outlook of $2.25 to $2.45 per share.
It now also projects global same-store sales will rise nearly 6% and U.S. same-store sales will climb more than 6%; the company was previously forecasting global and U.S. same-store sales growth of at least 5%.
"This was the quarter our momentum became truly measurable," CEO Brian Niccol said in a video shared with the company's earnings press release.
The coffee giant also reported quarterly earnings and revenue that topped analysts' expectations.
Shares of the company jumped as much as 9% in extended trading.
Here's what the company reported for the quarter ended June 28 compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: 85 cents adjusted vs. 66 cents expected
- Revenue: $9.32 billion vs. $9.16 billion expected
The coffee giant reported fiscal third-quarter net income attributable to Starbucks of $1.05 billion, or 91 cents per share, up from $558.3 million, or 49 cents per share, a year earlier.
The company's operating margins expanded to 13.6%, up from the year-ago period margins of 13.3%, thanks in part to tariff refunds. Starbucks did not say exactly how much it received in refunds.
"The refunds we received in Q3 largely offset related tariffs incurred in the first three quarters of fiscal 2026," CFO Cathy Smith said on the company's earnings conference call.
Excluding restructuring costs and other items, Starbucks earned 85 cents per share.
Net sales dropped 1% to $9.3 billion due to the company's sale of a controlling stake in its China business. In November, Starbucks announced it was forming a joint venture with Boyu Capital, which would take over operations in the coffee chain's second-largest market.
Although Starbucks' overall revenue fell, its sales at stores open at least 13 months climbed 7.9%, topping Wall Street estimates of 6%, according to StreetAccount.
The coffee chain reported increases in both transactions and average check, showing that customers are returning to its cafes and spending more on their orders.
Under Niccol's "Back to Starbucks" strategy, the company has focused on improving service and making cafes more welcoming in its home market. To do so, the chain has invested in labor and renovations to its coffee houses, earning some grumbling from investors. But the efforts seem to be paying off for Starbucks, which had seen its sales slump as it lost many of its loyal customers to competitors like Dutch Bros.
The company's North American same-store sales increased 8.1% in the quarter. Traffic to those restaurants jumped 4.5%. With a 3.5% increase in average ticket, customers were also spending more on their orders, paying to modify their lattes and adding food items alongside their drinks.
In addition to improving its operations, Starbucks has also retooled its menu, cutting unpopular items and launching new drinks. Niccol said the chain would test "spritzers" — sparkling versions of its Refreshers — in select markets.
Refreshers have grown to become a $2 billion drink platform for Starbucks and often drive customers to its cafes during the afternoon, helping fuel business outside of the morning coffee rush. In the fiscal third quarter, revenue from Refreshers climbed by a double-digit percentage, executives said.
Outside of Starbucks' home market, same-store sales rose 5.7%. With the formation of the China joint venture, roughly 90% of the company's international locations are now licensed, according to Niccol. The asset-light model is often more attractive to investors, who like the long-term lift to earnings the structure usually brings.
During the quarter, Starbucks opened 175 net new stores and surpassed 1,000 cafe "uplifts," reaching its fiscal 2026 goal ahead of schedule. Starbucks is now targeting at least 1,500 store renovations by the end of fiscal 2026 and accelerating its plans further in the next fiscal year.
The cafe makeovers cost roughly $150,000 on average and result in higher transactions, Niccol said on the company's earnings conference call. The changes vary based on location, but generally customers can expect more seating, warmer lighting and dark wood paneling.
Smith also said that the company is assessing its North American store footprint, which could result in it shuttering more stores. In fiscal 2025, the company's North America footprint shrank by 1% due to closures.
Correction: This story was updated to correct that Starbucks' North American same-store sales rose 8.1%. A previous version misstated the figure.
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