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Federal Register Public Inspection — Defense Department and DFARSDoubao · 实盘不做把握 8/10不做原因:消息已过时
北京时间·🕒 发布 20:45:00(美东 08:45)·⟳ 抓取 20:45:52·⚡ 决策 10-16 20:50:17 +4m25s·10.8 天前

联邦公报例行公开沙特50亿美元JDAM-ER军售通知,实质批准消息9月初已发布

这是法定的联邦公报例行公开(10月19日正式出版),实质军售批准和国会通知早在9月1日送达、9月4日由国务院/DSCA公开发布并被Army Recognition等媒体广泛报道,距今约6周,无任何新增金额、客户或条款事实;对超大市值的波音也不构成相对市值的重大增量,无预期差。

📄 原文Federal Register Public Inspection — Defense Department and DFARS↗ 原文
[Notice] Arms Sales
Billing Code: 6001-FR DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Office of the Secretary [Transmittal No. 26-35] Arms Sales Notification AGE…
不做 The Boeing Company(BA.US)
STALE:联邦公报10月16日仅为例行法律公开,同一50亿美元对沙特JDAM-ER军售已于9月4日由国务院/DSCA官宣并被广泛报道,无增量事实;订单多年摊销、相对波音体量materiality低,无短线edge。JDAM供应链受ITAR管制,亦无可定位的非美二阶标的。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

研究档案

结论摘要

联邦公报10月16日只是例行公开沙特50亿美元JDAM-ER军售的非保密文本,军售批准9月4日已由国务院/DSCA官宣并广泛传播,属6周前旧闻;唯一受益方波音体量大、订单多年摊销且无新增信息,不存在可交易edge。

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-09-04 · 扩散 high · price-in 风险 high ↗ ↗ ↗

消息传播链

  1. 节点

主要风险

  • 若出现国会否决、地区政治反对导致LOF撤回等新进展可能改变状态,但本次联邦公报文件本身不含此类信息

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 影响 none
    未发现本次联邦公报版含任何新的阻碍或加码信息;核心反向事实是消息陈旧本身
    检索:Saudi JDAM-ER sale congressional block Israel objection delay 2026 原文 ↗

先例如何影响了这次决策

对本次决策的影响:无影响——STALE/无增量事实直接决定不做,无需校准止盈幅度

方向:未运行先例统计:事件在进入价格反应分析前即因陈旧(程序性旧闻重发)被否,先例幅度不可能改变AVOID结论

涨幅量级:不适用

形态:不适用

工具执行结果 · 成功 2 · 降级 0 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
  1. search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 10 ms
    {"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`boeing kmu-572 kmu-556 guidance kits saudi federal register arms sales notification | saudi arabia jdam-er $5 billion arms sale dsca transmittal 26-35`;结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时;旧记录兼容扫描近 0.0/72 小时、0 条本臂决策(完整),返回 0 条候选。未命中只表示这些 agent query 表达式没有召回候选,不能据此证明消息首发或不
  2. web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,590 ms
    豆包搜索结果(原始查询:DSCA Saudi Arabia JDAM $5 billion notification September 2026 Boeing;API SearchType:web)

原文全文

展开原文 · 6,666 字
Billing Code: 6001-FR
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
Office of the Secretary
[Transmittal No. 26-35]
Arms Sales Notification
AGENCY: Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), Department of Defense (DoD).
ACTION: Arms sales notice.
SUMMARY: The DoD (referred to herein as “the Department,” “Department of War” or “DoW”)
is publishing the unclassified text of an arms sales notification.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Urooj Zahra at (703) 695-6233,
urooj.zahra.civ@mail.mil, or dsca.ncr.rsrcmgmt.list.cns-mbx@mail.mil.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: This 36(b) arms sales notification is published to fulfill
the requirements of section 155 of Public Law 104-164 dated July 21, 1996. The following is a
copy of the attached Transmittal 26-35, Policy Justification, and Sensitivity of Technology.

Dated: October 15, 2026.
Stephanie J. Bost,
Alternate OSD Federal Register Liaison Officer,
Department of Defense.

Transmittal No. 26-35
Notice of Proposed Issuance of Letter of Offer
Pursuant to Section 36(b)(1)
of the Arms Export Control Act, as amended

(i)

Prospective Purchaser: Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

(ii)

Total Estimated Value:
Major Defense Equipment*
Other
TOTAL

$2.0 billion
$3.0 billion
$5.0 billion

Funding Source: National Funds
(iii)

Description and Quantity or Quantities of Articles or Services under Consideration for
Purchase:
Major Defense Equipment (MDE):
Five thousand four (5,004) KMU-572 Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM)
guidance kits
Five thousand (5,000) KMU-556 JDAM guidance kits
Five thousand four (5,004) BLU-111 500-lb general purpose bombs
Five thousand (5,000) BLU-117 2,000-lb general purpose bombs
Non-MDE:
The following non-MDE items will also be included: FMU-139 fuze systems;
DSU-38 and DSU-40 target detectors; containers and support equipment; spare
parts, consumables and accessories, and repair and return support; U.S.
Government and contractor engineering, technical, and logistics support services;
and other related elements of logistics and program support.

(iv)

Military Department: Air Force (SR-D-YAJ)

(v)

Prior Related Cases, if any: None

(vi)

Sales Commission, Fee, etc., Paid, Offered, or Agreed to be Paid: None known at this
time

(vii)

Sensitivity of Technology Contained in the Defense Article or Defense Services
Proposed to be Sold: See Attached Annex

(viii) Date Report Delivered to Congress: September 1, 2026
* as defined in Section 47(6) of the Arms Export Control Act.

POLICY JUSTIFICATION
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia – Joint Direct Attack Munitions - Extend Range
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has requested to buy five thousand four (5,004) KMU-572 Joint
Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) guidance kits; five thousand (5,000) KMU-556 JDAM guidance
kits; five thousand four (5,004) BLU-111 500-lb general purpose bombs; and five thousand
(5,000) BLU-117 2,000-lb general purpose bombs. The following non-major defense equipment
will also be included: FMU-139 fuze systems; DSU-38 and DSU-40 target detectors; containers
and support equipment; spare parts, consumables and accessories, and repair and return support;
U. S. Government and contractor engineering, technical, and logistics support services; and other
related elements of logistics and program support. The estimated total cost is $5.0 billion.
This proposed sale will support the foreign policy goals and national security objectives of the
United States by improving the security of a Major non-NATO Ally that is a force for political
stability and economic progress in the Gulf Region.
The proposed sale will improve Saudi Arabia’s airborne defense capability to counter current
and future regional threats, strengthen its homeland defense, and improve interoperability with
systems operated by U.S. forces and other Gulf Region partners. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
will have no difficulty absorbing these articles and services into its armed forces.
The proposed sale of this equipment and support will not alter the military balance in the
region.
The principal contractor will be The Boeing Corporation, located in Arlington, VA. At this time,
the U.S. Government is not aware of any offset agreement proposed in connection with this
potential sale. Any offset agreement will be defined in negotiations between the purchaser and
the contractor.
Implementation of this proposed sale will not require the assignment of any additional U.S.
Government or contractor representatives to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
There will be no adverse impact on U.S. defense readiness because of this proposed sale.

Transmittal No. 26-35
Notice of Proposed Issuance of Letter of Offer
Pursuant to Section 36(b)(1)
of the Arms Export Control Act
Annex
Item No. vii
(vii) Sensitivity of Technology:
1. The Joint Direct Attack Munition-Extended Range (JDAM-ER) consist of a bomb body
paired with a warhead-specific tail kit containing an Inertial Navigation System/Global
Positioning System Precision Positioning Service guidance capability that converts unguided
free-fall bombs into accurate, adverse weather “smart” munitions. The extended range wing kit
can be readily installed on existing JDAM MK-82 500-lb weapons and JDAM MK-84 2,000-lb
weapons in the field. The JDAM weapon can be used against a variety of land and surface
targets during the day or night. It can also receive target coordinates via preplanned mission data
from the delivery aircraft, by onboard aircraft sensors during captive carry, or from a third-party
source via manual or automated aircrew cockpit entry.
a. The GBU-31 is a 2,000-lb JDAM, and consists of a KMU-556 tail kit and BLU-117 or
MK-84 bomb body.
b. The GBU-38 is a 500-lb JDAM, and consists of a KMU-572 tail kit and BLU-111 or
MK-82 bomb body.
2. The highest level of classification of defense articles, components, and services included in
this potential sale is SECRET.
3. If a technologically advanced adversary were to obtain knowledge of the specific hardware
and software elements, the information could be used to develop countermeasures that might reduce
system effectiveness or be used in the development of a system with similar or advanced capabilities.
4. The U.S. Government has determined that Saudi Arabia can provide substantially the same
degree of protection for the sensitive technology being released as the U.S. Government. This
proposed sale is necessary in furtherance of the U.S. foreign policy and national security
objectives outlined in the Policy Justification.
5. All defense articles and services listed in this transmittal have been authorized for release and
export to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

[FR Doc. 2026-21340 Filed: 10/16/2026 8:45 am; Publication Date: 10/19/2026]

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