日元兑美元升至152区间、创半年新高，市场几乎完全定价日本央行9月加息，出口股承压（事件发生于2026-09-08，距今已4个交易日）

TOKYO -- The Japanese yen is surging against the U.S. dollar, rising to the 152 range on Tuesday morning and touching a six-month high as traders unwind their yen carry trades amid expectations for faster rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
As of 11:30 a.m. in Tokyo, the yen was up 1.7% at around 152.88 per dollar, the highest level since mid-February. The currency has risen close to 3 yen from its level at 5 p.m. the previous day.
Analysts point to the potential unwinding of yen carry trades, which involve borrowing yen at low interest rates and investing the proceeds in higher-yielding assets like the dollar, as a reason for the surge.
The popularity of these trades helped keep the yen weak for years. But growing speculation that the BOJ could raise interest rates more quickly has reduced the strategy's appeal.
Economists at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities said the likelihood of a rate hike this month increased after BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda's comments last week during his visit to Asheville, North Carolina, for a G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors.
During the conference, "senior U.S. officials repeatedly made unusual comments on the USD/JPY exchange rate and Japan's monetary policy, prompting markets to move toward almost fully pricing in a September rate hike by the BOJ," according to the economists. With markets almost fully pricing in a hike this month, "it has become difficult for the BOJ to communicate a policy path under which it leaves rates unchanged in September before raising them in October," they added.
Totan Research and Totan ICAP data put the implied probability of a September rate increase at 97% as of Tuesday morning. The BOJ holds its next monetary policy meeting on Sept. 17-18.
Economic data released on Tuesday morning reinforced the idea that the BOJ could raise rates later this month. Real wages posted their biggest increase since May 2021, while economic growth in the April-June quarter was revised upward.
On Tuesday morning, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama told reporters that Tokyo will communicate closely with Washington to maintain "an orderly foreign exchange market." She also stressed that "our policy stance has not changed at all" since the joint U.S.-Japan intervention in late July.
The yen's recent recovery "has had positive spillover effects for other currencies versus the USD," said Paul Mackel, global head of FX Research at HSBC, in a note, adding that the trend is similar to what happened after Japanese authorities intervened in the currency market at the end of July to support the yen.
Aside from the yen, the euro, the Swiss franc, the South Korean won, the Thai baht and the Taiwan dollar, as well as other currencies, have gained against the greenback over the past week.
Following July's coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention, the yen briefly gained the 155 level. It has now eclipsed that level, and the breach of the key threshold appears to have triggered stop-loss orders, analysts say. Stop-loss orders are automatic instructions to buy or sell a currency once it reaches a predetermined level.
The recent surge "has raised questions as to whether other flows such as domestic institutional behavior are turning more positive on the JPY," said Mackel. "This would be important if true, especially if it is tied to the idea of the BOJ potentially raising rates at a faster pace and Japan's GPIF having an unusual meeting, timing-wise, to discuss asset allocation plans," he added.
Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund disclosed that it held a management committee meeting last month, stoking market speculation that the fund will review its portfolio allocations to increase yen asset purchases.
The meeting follows comments by Finance Minister Katayama in July in which she suggested that the government would encourage more domestic investment by pension funds.
Trading on the Tokyo stock market on Tuesday morning was choppy, with the benchmark Nikkei Stock Average at one point falling over 600 points, or 1%, before reversing course and paring losses.
The yen's surge weighed on shares of exporters, including automakers like Toyota Motor and electronics components giants such as Murata Manufacturing. On the other hand, the stronger yen supported shares in retailers like furniture chain store operator Nitori Holdings.
Market participants are closely watching U.S. inflation data due on Friday, with the consumer price index report for August likely to shape expectations for the Federal Reserve's Sept. 15-16 policy meeting. CME FedWatch data shows markets currently assigning a nearly 60% probability to a rate increase.
A note by Nomura Securities says a stronger-than-expected CPI reading "could prompt a rebound in USD/JPY, but subdued core inflation and a dovish Fed could push it lower."