Seoul Economic Daily EnglishDoubao · 实盘不做把握 4/10不做原因:无增量信息
北京时间·🕒 发布 16:43:14(首尔 17:43)·⟳ 抓取 16:55:39 +12m25s·⚡ 决策 10-18 16:57:23 +1m44s·9.4 天前
韩国《首尔经济》调查:93% 加密业界人士要求推迟 2027 年开征的虚拟资产转让所得税,政府将于 10 月 20 日约谈五大交易所
这条信号是一家媒体自行组织的业界意见调查(93% 主张延期),外加一场两天后才举行的政府约谈预告,本身不含任何税法修改、延期生效或行政决定;直接受益主体 Upbit/Dunamu 未上市,唯一较纯的上市映射 Inbiogen(Bithumb) 也只能交易一个尚未发生的政策预期,属舆情驱动、无基本面增量,不构成可执行的事件交易。
📄 原文Seoul Economic Daily English↗ 原文
83% See 10%+ Outflows If Crypto Tax Starts; Delay Urged to 2029
More than nine out of 10 digital asset industry officials and experts in South Korea said a planned tax on cryptocurren…
不做 Inbiogen(Bithumb 控股方)(018340.KQ)
本事件只是媒体业界民调与政府约谈预告,没有征税延期的政策事实;Inbiogen 是唯一较纯但高波动的主题映射,凭舆情在周一做多等于交易未落地的政治预期,edge 与因果强度不足。等 10 月 20 日会面或国会出现明确延期/加扣除额的官方信号后再重新评估
不做 Hana Financial Group(086790.KS)
虽持有 Dunamu 6.55% 股权,但相对 Hana 金融集团体量占比极小,加密税延期对其无 material 业绩影响,不适合作为载体
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
韩国加密收益税是否延期仍是开放的政治博弈:本文仅是业界民调与 10 月 20 日政府座谈预告,没有新增政策事实;核心受益的交易所未上市或仅为间接、低敞口映射,故不出交易腿,待官方延期立法/表态出现后再评估。
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-10-18 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 low ↗
消息传播链
- 媒体发布对 30 名业界高管/学者的紧急调查:93.4% 支持推迟加密资产税、86.7% 预计国内交易所成交量下滑,并预告 10 月 20 日政府约谈五大交易所;属媒体调查+会议预告,非监管决定市场反应:发布时为周六,韩股/美股/A股/港股均闭市,暂无价格反应
主要风险
- 若 10 月 20 日座谈后政府或国会明确释放延期信号,Inbiogen 等韩国加密主题股周一可能直接跳空,本判断会被事件升级推翻
- 反之政府确认按期 2027 年 1 月开征,则对韩国国内交易所交易量预期构成实质利空,需重新评估做空映射标的
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 影响 invalidates
未检索到政府或国会已正式宣布推迟 2027 年 1 月加密税的任何一手决定;10 月 20 日仅为听取意见的会面
检索:Korea crypto tax delay October 2026 government decision National Assembly postponement
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例缺位叠加事件本身无政策事实,支持 AVOID 而非用类比先例支撑小仓试探
方向:无足够对齐先例:韩国加密税此前三次延期(2021-2025)属政治过程,且直接主体未上市,缺乏可在同一市场、同一相位用真实日线测量的纯净先例
涨幅量级:未取得可校准涨幅的 aligned 先例,不能为主题映射股设定 tp/sl
形态:不适用
工具执行结果 · 成功 2 · 降级 0 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
- search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 19 ms
{"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`kwon dae-young five crypto exchanges meeting october 20 crypto tax | south korea crypto gains tax delay survey seoul economic daily 2026 | 韩国 加密货币 转让所得税 推迟 业界 调查 upbit bithumb`;结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时;旧记录兼容扫描近 0.0/72 小时、0 条本臂决策(完整),返回 0 条候选。未命中只表示这些 agent que - web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,489 ms
豆包搜索结果(原始查询:Korea listed stocks crypto exchange Upbit Bithumb theme Dunamu stake 2026;API SearchType:web)
原文全文
展开原文 · 4,538 字
More than nine out of 10 digital asset industry officials and experts in South Korea said a planned tax on cryptocurrency gains should be postponed, as the government moves to begin levying the tax next year. They said taxation should be pushed back to after 2029, when the United States joins the Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF), warning that imposing taxes without adequate preparation could trigger an exodus of funds from domestic exchanges.
The findings come from an urgent survey conducted by The Seoul Economic Daily on the 18th of 30 chief executives and academic experts across the digital asset sector, including major exchanges such as Dunamu, the operator of Upbit, and Bithumb, as well as custody and blockchain infrastructure firms.
In the survey, 93.4%, or 28 respondents, supported delaying the crypto tax next year. "Strongly support" was the most common answer at 70%, followed by "support" at 23.4%. Only one respondent, or 3.3%, opposed a delay.
The 28 respondents who backed a delay said the start of taxation should be pushed back by at least two years. The largest share, 39.3%, chose 2029, while 35.7% picked 2030. Another 21.4% said 2031 or later, meaning an overwhelming 96.4% said the tax should take effect in 2029 or after.
The industry's biggest concern is fairness. With cryptocurrency moving in complex patterns across domestic and overseas exchanges and private wallets, respondents questioned whether tax authorities can track every transaction accurately and apply the same standard to all investors. Only two respondents, or 6.6%, said the National Tax Service could accurately track and tax transactions on overseas exchanges and private wallets. Nearly half, 46.7%, described the agency's information-gathering and transaction-tracking capability as "very insufficient," while another 40% chose "insufficient."
Investors who would owe the tax are equally unprepared. Individuals must gather transaction records scattered across domestic and overseas exchanges and private wallets, then calculate acquisition prices and gains or losses on their own. In the survey, 90% of respondents said investors are poorly prepared to file, and half said they are "not prepared at all."
The industry expects that pushing ahead with taxation under such conditions would drive domestic investors to overseas exchanges en masse. Of the respondents, 86.7% forecast that trading volume at major domestic exchanges would fall after the tax takes effect. A decline of 30% or more was cited by 56.7%, a drop of 10% to 30% by 26.7% and a drop of up to 10% by 3.3%. Another 10% said there would be no impact. According to the Financial Supervisory Service, won-based crypto exchanges handled an average of 3.1 trillion won ($2.1 billion) in daily trading in the first half of this year, or 558 trillion won over the six months by a simple calculation. The head of one domestic digital asset firm, identified as A, said an exodus to overseas exchanges is all but certain.
Disputes over the fairness of the tax burden are also intensifying. Under the current rules, only 2.5 million won of annual income from crypto investment would be deducted, with a 22% rate applied to the remainder. That is one-twentieth of the 50 million won basic deduction once proposed for domestic listed stocks under the financial investment income tax. Of the respondents, 70% argued the basic deduction for cryptocurrency should be raised to at least 50 million won. A tax expert identified as Professor B said any grace period must specify the agency responsible for each task, completion deadlines and verification standards, stressing that simply delaying the start of taxation is not enough.
Respondents also faulted the government for failing to put proper rules in place despite repeated postponements. The crypto tax was originally set to take effect in 2022 but has been delayed three times and is now scheduled to begin next January. Professor C, who specializes in digital assets, said there must be reflection and accountability for the fact that existing policy has not improved at all through several rounds of delay.
As calls for a delay grow louder, the government is moving to gather industry views. Kwon Dae-young, first vice minister of the Ministry of Finance and Economy, and Yoo Young-joon, director general for digital finance policy at the Financial Services Commission, will meet the heads of the five largest crypto exchanges on the 20th to hear about preparations for the tax and requests for regulatory changes.
The findings come from an urgent survey conducted by The Seoul Economic Daily on the 18th of 30 chief executives and academic experts across the digital asset sector, including major exchanges such as Dunamu, the operator of Upbit, and Bithumb, as well as custody and blockchain infrastructure firms.
In the survey, 93.4%, or 28 respondents, supported delaying the crypto tax next year. "Strongly support" was the most common answer at 70%, followed by "support" at 23.4%. Only one respondent, or 3.3%, opposed a delay.
The 28 respondents who backed a delay said the start of taxation should be pushed back by at least two years. The largest share, 39.3%, chose 2029, while 35.7% picked 2030. Another 21.4% said 2031 or later, meaning an overwhelming 96.4% said the tax should take effect in 2029 or after.
The industry's biggest concern is fairness. With cryptocurrency moving in complex patterns across domestic and overseas exchanges and private wallets, respondents questioned whether tax authorities can track every transaction accurately and apply the same standard to all investors. Only two respondents, or 6.6%, said the National Tax Service could accurately track and tax transactions on overseas exchanges and private wallets. Nearly half, 46.7%, described the agency's information-gathering and transaction-tracking capability as "very insufficient," while another 40% chose "insufficient."
Investors who would owe the tax are equally unprepared. Individuals must gather transaction records scattered across domestic and overseas exchanges and private wallets, then calculate acquisition prices and gains or losses on their own. In the survey, 90% of respondents said investors are poorly prepared to file, and half said they are "not prepared at all."
The industry expects that pushing ahead with taxation under such conditions would drive domestic investors to overseas exchanges en masse. Of the respondents, 86.7% forecast that trading volume at major domestic exchanges would fall after the tax takes effect. A decline of 30% or more was cited by 56.7%, a drop of 10% to 30% by 26.7% and a drop of up to 10% by 3.3%. Another 10% said there would be no impact. According to the Financial Supervisory Service, won-based crypto exchanges handled an average of 3.1 trillion won ($2.1 billion) in daily trading in the first half of this year, or 558 trillion won over the six months by a simple calculation. The head of one domestic digital asset firm, identified as A, said an exodus to overseas exchanges is all but certain.
Disputes over the fairness of the tax burden are also intensifying. Under the current rules, only 2.5 million won of annual income from crypto investment would be deducted, with a 22% rate applied to the remainder. That is one-twentieth of the 50 million won basic deduction once proposed for domestic listed stocks under the financial investment income tax. Of the respondents, 70% argued the basic deduction for cryptocurrency should be raised to at least 50 million won. A tax expert identified as Professor B said any grace period must specify the agency responsible for each task, completion deadlines and verification standards, stressing that simply delaying the start of taxation is not enough.
Respondents also faulted the government for failing to put proper rules in place despite repeated postponements. The crypto tax was originally set to take effect in 2022 but has been delayed three times and is now scheduled to begin next January. Professor C, who specializes in digital assets, said there must be reflection and accountability for the fact that existing policy has not improved at all through several rounds of delay.
As calls for a delay grow louder, the government is moving to gather industry views. Kwon Dae-young, first vice minister of the Ministry of Finance and Economy, and Yoo Young-joon, director general for digital finance policy at the Financial Services Commission, will meet the heads of the five largest crypto exchanges on the 20th to hear about preparations for the tax and requests for regulatory changes.
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6d3c9ff383· 2026-10-18 16:57 · doubao / doubao-seed-evolving-latest-version · 策略包2226518bfdee当前