首尔经济AI简报称三星HBM LTA条款有利，并重提韩国AIDC发动机和机器人零部件机会

▲AI PRISM* Customized Economic Briefing
*Editor's Note: 'AI PRISM' (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an "AI-based customized news recommendation and summary service" developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six customized news items by reader type.
[Key Issue Briefing]
■ Memory Super-Gap: Amid an artificial intelligence (AI) super-cycle, the long-term agreement (LTA) terms of the world's three major memory makers—Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), SK hynix (000660.KS), and Micron—have come to light, with analysis suggesting Samsung Electronics has secured the most favorable structure, limiting price cuts while placing no cap on increases. As a result, forecasts have emerged that Samsung Electronics' earnings will exceed market expectations, as the second-half memory peak season coincides with strong pricing.
■ Power and Engine Boom: While the government is pushing to distribute AI data centers outside the greater Seoul area, a bottleneck has emerged with pending volume reaching 9,583 megawatts (MW) due to delays in power grid impact assessments. Meanwhile, the shipbuilding industry is absorbing demand for data center power generation engines, with HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180.KS) and Hanwha Engine (082740.KS) meeting their annual order targets early, starting in the first half.
■ Global Industry Realignment: As the United States bans imports of advanced Chinese robots, expectations are growing for domestic auto parts makers to enter the North American robot parts market. Meanwhile, China's new drug technology exports have surged 90-fold in 10 years, expanding its influence in the bio market. There are also concerns that the rollback of data center tax benefits by US state governments could increase facility construction costs by more than 7%.
[News of Interest to Corporate CEOs]
- Key Summary: Analysis suggests Samsung Electronics has secured the most favorable terms in the long-term agreements (LTAs) of the three memory semiconductor makers riding the artificial intelligence (AI) super-cycle. Samsung Electronics has established a structure that limits price cuts to a maximum of 5% per quarter while placing no cap on increases, allowing it to reflect market price gains directly in earnings. Accordingly, FnGuide forecast Samsung Electronics' revenue this year at 738 trillion won and operating profit at 391 trillion won, with SK hynix and Micron also expected to see earnings improvements. Meanwhile, according to TrendForce, the fixed transaction price of general-purpose PC DRAM (DDR4 8Gb) last month was $24, up 14.3% from the previous month, marking the highest level since 2016.
2. Regional AIDC Power Assessment 'Bottleneck': 10GW Waiting
- Key Summary: While the government is pushing to distribute AI data centers outside the greater Seoul area, a bottleneck has emerged at the power grid impact assessment stage. According to Korea Electric Power Corporation, of the cumulative applied power of 63,846 megawatts (MW) as of the end of March this year, the volume for which results had not been notified reached 9,583 MW, and even among the volume for which results were issued, 39.3% received a supply-unavailable ruling. In particular, in North Gyeongsang Province, results were issued for only 420 MW out of 1,030 MW applied for, bringing the non-notification rate to 59%, while Busan, Ulsan, and North Chungcheong Province also had significant volumes waiting. In response, Korea Electric Power Corporation stated this was merely a difference in application timing by region and not a review delay, but the industry and the National Assembly Research Service pointed out that unclear assessment criteria and cost burdens could hinder regional distribution.
3. Beyond Ships to AIDC Power Sources: K-Engine Orders Pour In
- Key Summary: The domestic ship engine industry is expanding its territory beyond the shipbuilding sector into the AI data center power generation market, and is forecast to record its largest-ever orders this year. HD Hyundai Heavy Industries secured new orders worth $2.449 billion (about 3.5015 trillion won) in its engine machinery division in the first half, achieving 92% of its annual target, and in April signed a 627.1 billion won contract to supply 33 20-megawatt (MW) HiMSEN engines for data centers to US firm AEG. Hanwha Engine's first-half orders also reached 1.44 trillion won, more than tripling from the same period last year, already filling 81% of last year's annual order volume. In addition, STX Engine signed a contract with a Chinese shipyard to supply engines for 14 ultra-large container ships, marking its first ship engine export achievement.
[Reference News for Corporate CEOs]
4. US Bars Advanced Chinese Robots: K-Parts Makers Eye the Gap
- Key Summary: As the United States introduces import restrictions targeting advanced Chinese robots, expectations are growing for the domestic parts industry to enter the North American market. The US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) announced on the 28th of last month a complete ban on imports of new models of humanoid robots and quadruped robots, and while this applies regardless of country of origin, analysis suggests it is a measure aimed at China. Halla Cast (125490.KQ) decided to double the production capacity of its Incheon plant to supply robot thermal management parts to North American firms starting in the second half, and SL (005850.KS) will begin mass production of leg modules for Boston Dynamics' robot 'Spot' during the third quarter. Goldman Sachs forecast that Korea will produce 74,000 units by 2030, equivalent to 30% of the world's humanoid production.
5. Backed by Review Reform and Group Purchasing: China's New Drug Tech Exports Surge 90-Fold
- Key Summary: China's overseas technology exports of innovative new drugs have surged 90-fold in 10 years. After designating the bio industry as one of seven strategic emerging industries in 2010, China's State Council introduced pharmaceutical review and approval system reforms and a national group purchasing system, and in 2017 joined the International Council for Harmonisation (ICH), encouraging companies to develop new drugs in line with US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) standards. Backed by such policy support, the technology export volume, which was $1.5 billion in 2015, grew to $135.7 billion last year, and half of last year's top 10 licensing deals—including the Pfizer-3SBio cancer drug contract ($6.3 billion)—were signed with Chinese companies. In its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), China elevated biopharmaceuticals to a strategic core industry alongside semiconductors and aerospace.
6. US State Governments Roll Back Tax Cuts: Data Centers Hit With Frost
- Key Summary: As US state governments successively abolish or suspend tax breaks for data centers, concerns have emerged that facility cost burdens could grow. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), 13 to 14 states including Arizona, Georgia, and Texas have already abolished or temporarily suspended data center sales taxes or plan to abolish them, with voter backlash over rising electricity rates and water shortages cited as the background for this policy shift. The Information analyzed that if tax benefits disappear in a state with a 7% sales tax, the cost of building information technology (IT) equipment for a 1-gigawatt (GW) data center could increase from $40 billion (about 57.2 trillion won) to $43 billion.
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