event-trade登录编辑
Federal Register Public Inspection — Commerce ITA trade remedies (AD/CVD)Doubao · 实盘不做把握 8/10不做原因:风险收益比不佳
北京时间·🕒 发布 20:45:00(美东 08:45)·⟳ 抓取 20:45:40回填·⚡ 决策 10-13 20:51:18·14.0 天前

美国商务部终裁日本热轧钢反倾销行政复审:日本制铁税率13.96%、东京制铁0%

这是常规年度反倾销行政复审终裁,不是新增调查或新增进口禁令;税率主要影响2023-2024复审期入境货物的清算以及后续现金保证金,直接受影响主体多为日本大型钢铁集团,公告未给出足以构成短线重大损益的对美销售额或利润占比。东京制铁0%税率虽具相对优势,但缺少可验证的对美出口增量和收入弹性。

📄 原文Federal Register Public Inspection — Commerce ITA trade remedies (AD/CVD)↗ 原文
BILLING CODE: 3510-DS-P DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE International Trade Administration [A-588-874] Certain Hot-Rolled Steel…
不做 日本制铁(5401.JP)
13.96%复审税率为直接负面,但属常规年度行政复审且未量化美国热轧业务补税和现金流影响,相对大型集团市值缺乏明确短线edge。
不做 东京制铁(5423.JP)
0%税率形成相对优势,但公告未证明对美出口增量、订单转移或收入利润弹性,不能仅凭税率差直接做多。
不做 JFE控股(5411.JP)
JFE相关主体适用13.96%,但影响金额、美国市场敞口和占集团利润比例均不明,常规复审终裁不足以构成强空催化。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

研究档案

结论摘要

美国商务部确认日本热轧钢复审税率分化:日本制铁及多家未受查企业13.96%,东京制铁0%。该结果属于既定AD令下的常规年度行政复审,影响集中且未量化,短线风险收益不足以开多或开空。

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-10-13 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 medium ↗

关键理由

  • 不做:常规行政复审终裁将历史销售按13.96%或0%清算,并非新增贸易限制,预期差和短期股价弹性均有限。
  • 即便东京制铁相对受益、日本制铁/JFE相对承压,公告未提供对美热轧收入占比,无法证明相对市值具备可交易量级。

主要风险

  • 若13.96%显著高于4月初裁税率或企业对美出口规模超预期,日本制铁和JFE可能补跌;若0%税率带来明确订单转移,东京制铁可能跑赢。
  • 若市场将该终裁解读为美国对日本钢铁贸易政策进一步收紧,钢铁板块可能出现宏观情绪联动,但这超出本公告可直接证实的因果链。

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 filing · 日期 2026-10-13 · 影响 weakens
    终裁文本确认Tokyo Steel税率为0%,但没有披露其美国热轧销售额、出口量、订单转移或收入增量,无法支撑做多。
    检索:Tokyo Steel United States hot-rolled steel exports revenue exposure antidumping zero margin 2023 2024 原文 ↗
  • 做空前查反向 · 来源 filing · 日期 2026-10-13 · 影响 weakens
    终裁文本确认NSC及JFE相关主体适用13.96%,但未列示对美销售额、补税金额或集团收入占比;常规复审也不构成突发核心经营中断。
    检索:Nippon Steel JFE 13.96 percent hot-rolled steel US exposure revenue materiality 原文 ↗

先例如何影响了这次决策

对本次决策的影响:先例不足与materiality不足共同支持AVOID,而非用小仓试探。

方向:未取得足以校准的、同市场同阶段反倾销行政复审终裁先例;不能凭经验声称日本钢铁股会单边上涨或下跌。

涨幅量级:缺少高相似且首发锚点干净的日本钢厂AD行政复审终裁价格样本,无法设定可靠止盈止损幅度。

形态:常规贸易救济行政复审通常程序性强、预期在初裁后逐步消化,但本公告未能证明具体公司重大损益,因此不据此交易。

工具执行结果 · 成功 1 · 降级 0 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
  1. search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 11 ms
    {"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`a-588-874 hot-rolled steel flat products japan final results federal register | japan hot-rolled steel antidumping administrative review final 2023-2024 nippon steel 13.96% | 东京制铁 `;结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时;旧记录兼容扫描近 0.0/72 小时、0 条本臂决策(完整),返回 0 条候选。未命中只表示这些 agen

原文全文

展开原文 · 13,740 字
BILLING CODE: 3510-DS-P
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
International Trade Administration
[A-588-874]
Certain Hot-Rolled Steel Flat Products from Japan: Final Results of Antidumping Duty
Administrative Review; 2023-2024
AGENCY:

Enforcement and Compliance, International Trade Administration, Department of
Commerce.

SUMMARY:

The U.S. Department of Commerce (Commerce) determines that certain

producers/exporters of hot-rolled steel flat products (hot-rolled steel) from Japan sold subject
merchandise in the United States at prices below normal value during the period of review
(POR) October 1, 2023, through September 30, 2024.
DATES: Applicable [Insert date of publication in the Federal Register].
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Jun Jack Zhao or Myrna Lobo, AD/CVD
Operations, Office VII, Enforcement and Compliance, International Trade Administration, U.S.
Department of Commerce, 1401 Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20230; telephone:
(202) 482-1396 or (202) 482-2371, respectively.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Background
On October 3, 2016, Commerce published in the Federal Register the antidumping duty
(AD) order on hot-rolled steel from Japan.1 On April 10, 2026, Commerce published the

1 See Certain Hot-Rolled Steel Flat Products from Australia, Brazil, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Netherlands,

the Republic of Turkey, and the United Kingdom: Amended Final Affirmative Antidumping Determinations for
Australia, the Republic of Korea, and the Republic of Turkey and Antidumping Duty Orders, 81 FR 67962 (October
3, 2016) (Order).

Preliminary Results of this review in the Federal Register and invited interested parties to
comment.2
For a complete summary of the events that have occurred since the Preliminary Results,
as well as a full discussion of the issues raised by parties for these final results, see the Issues and
Decision Memorandum.3 Commerce conducted this review in accordance with section 751(a) of
the Tariff Act of 1930, as amended (the Act).
Scope of the Order4
The merchandise covered by the Order is hot-rolled steel from Japan. For a complete
description of the scope of the Order, see the Issues and Decision Memorandum.
Analysis of Comments Received
We addressed all issues raised in the case and rebuttal briefs in the Issues and Decision
Memorandum. The list of topics discussed in the Issues and Decision Memorandum is attached
as an appendix to this notice. The Issues and Decision Memorandum is a public document and is
on file electronically via Enforcement and Compliance’s Antidumping and Countervailing Duty
Centralized Electronic Service System (ACCESS), which is available to registered users at
https://access.trade.gov. In addition, a complete version of the Issues and Decision
Memorandum can be accessed directly at https://access.trade.gov/frnotices.
Changes Since the Preliminary Results
Based on our review and analysis of the comments received from parties, we made
certain changes to the preliminary margin calculations for Nippon Steel Corporation (NSC). For
a detailed discussion of these changes, see the Issues and Decision Memorandum.
Review-Specific Rate for Non-Examined Companies

2 See Certain Hot-Rolled Steel Flat Products from Japan:

Preliminary Results and Rescission, In Part, of
Antidumping Duty Administrative; 2023-2024, 91 FR 18410 (April 10, 2026) (Preliminary Results), and
accompanying Preliminary Decision Memorandum.
3 See Memorandum, “Issues and Decision Memorandum for the Final Results of the Antidumping Duty
Administrative Review: Certain Hot-Rolled Steel Flat Products from Japan; 2023-2024,” dated concurrently with,
and hereby adopted by, this notice (Issues and Decision Memorandum).
4 See Order.

The Act does not address the establishment of a rate to apply to companies not selected
for individual examination when Commerce limits its examination in an administrative review
pursuant to section 777A(c)(2) of the Act. However, Commerce’s regulation at 19 CFR
351.109(g) states that Commerce will determine the rate for non-selected companies by
following the process set forth in 19 CFR 351.109(f)(1)-(2), which generally parallels the
process for determining the all-others rate in an investigation under section 735(c)(5) of the Act.
Section 735(c)(5)(A) of the Act and 19 CFR 351.109(f) state that for companies not investigated,
in general, we will determine an all-others rate by weight averaging the AD rates established for
each of the companies individually investigated, excluding zero and de minimis rates or any rates
based entirely on facts available. Where the estimated weighted-average dumping margin for
each of the individually examined companies is zero, de minimis, or based entirely on facts
available, section 735(c)(5)(B) of the Act provides that Commerce may use “any reasonable
method to establish the estimated all-others rate for exporters and producers not individually
investigated, including averaging the estimated weighted-average dumping margins determined
for the exporters and producers individually investigated.”
In this review, we calculated estimated weighted-average dumping margins of zero
percent for Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (Tokyo Steel) and 13.96 percent for NSC.
Section 735(c)(5)(A) of the Act states that “{t}he estimated all-others rate shall be an amount
equal to the weighted average of the estimated weighted average dumping margins established
for exporters and producers individually investigated, excluding any zero and de minimis
margins, and any margins determined entirely under section 776.” Consistent with section
735(c)(5)(A) of the Act, we assigned the companies not selected for individual examination in
this review a weighted-average dumping margin based on the rate of 13.96 percent calculated for
Tokyo Steel. The companies not selected for individual examination are listed in Appendix II.
Final Results of Review

Commerce determines that the following estimated weighted-average dumping margins
exist for the period October 1, 2023, through September 30, 2024:
Producer/Exporter
Nippon Steel Corporation/Nippon Steel Nisshin
Co., Ltd. / Nippon Steel Trading Corporation5
Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd.

Weighted-Average Dumping Margin
(percent)
13.96
0.00

Review-Specific Rate for Non-Examined Companies
JFE Steel Corporation; JFE Shoji Trade
Corporation; JFE Shoji Corporation
Honda Trading Corporation
Marubeni-Itochu Steel Inc
Tetsusho Kayaba Corporation
Toyo Corporation

13.96
13.96
13.96
13.96
13.96

Disclosure
Commerce intends to disclose to interested parties the calculations performed for these
final results of review within five days of any public announcement or, if there is no public
announcement, within five days of the date of publication of this notice in the Federal Register,
in accordance with 19 CFR 351.224(b).
Assessment Rates
Commerce intends to issue assessment instructions to U.S. Customs and Border
Protection (CBP) no earlier than 35 days after the date of publication of the final results of this
review in the Federal Register. If a timely summons is filed at the U.S. Court of International
Trade, the assessment instructions will direct CBP not to liquidate relevant entries until the time
for parties to file a request for a statutory injunction has expired (i.e., within 90 days of
publication).

5 Commerce found in a changed circumstances review that NSC, Nippon Steel Nisshin Co., Ltd., and Nippon Steel

Trading Corporation are affiliated companies that should be treated as a single entity and as the successor-in-interest
to Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corporation, Nisshin Steel Co., Ltd., and Nippon Steel & Sumikin Bussan
Corporation, respectively. See Certain Hot-Rolled Steel Flat Products from Japan: Notice of Final Results of
Antidumping Duty Changed Circumstances Review, 84 FR 46713 (September 5, 2019). Because there is no
information on the record of this administrative review that would lead us to revisit this determination, we are
continuing to treat these companies as part of a single entity for the purposes of this administrative review.

Where the respondent reported reliable entered values, we calculated importer- (or
customer-) specific ad valorem rates by aggregating the dumping margins calculated for all U.S.
sales to each importer (or customer) and dividing this amount by the total entered value of the
sales to each importer (or customer).6 Where Commerce calculated a weighted-average dumping
margin by dividing the total amount of dumping for reviewed sales to that party by the total sales
quantity associated with those transactions, Commerce will direct CBP to assess importer- (or
customer-) specific assessment rates based on the resulting per-unit rates.7 Where an importer(or customer-) specific ad valorem or per-unit rate is greater than de minimis (i.e., 0.50 percent),
Commerce will instruct CBP to collect the appropriate duties at the time of liquidation.8 Where
an importer- (or customer-) specific ad valorem or per-unit rate is zero or de minimis, Commerce
will instruct CBP to liquidate appropriate entries without regard to antidumping duties.9
Consistent with Commerce’s assessment practice, for entries of subject merchandise
during the POR produced by NSC or Tokyo Steel for which the producer did not know that its
merchandise was destined for the United States, we will instruct CBP to liquidate unreviewed
entries at the all-others rate (i.e., 5.58 percent10) if there is no rate for the intermediate
company(ies) involved in the transaction.11
For the companies which were not selected for individual review, we will assign an
assessment rate based on the review-specific rate, calculated as noted in the “Review-Specific
Rate for Non-Examined Companies” section, above. The final results of this review shall be the
basis for the assessment of antidumping duties on entries of merchandise covered by the final
results of this review and for future deposits of estimated duties, where applicable.12

6 See section 751(a)(2)(A) of the Act; see also 19 CFR 351.212(b)(1).
7 Id.
8 Id.
9 See 19 CFR 351.106(c)(2).
10 See Certain Hot-Rolled Steel Flat Products from Japan:

Final Determination of Sales at Less Than Fair Value
and Final Affirmative Determination of Critical Circumstances, 81 FR 53409 (August 12, 2016) (LTFV Final
Determination).
11 For a full discussion of this practice, see Antidumping and Countervailing Duty Proceedings: Assessment of
Antidumping Duties, 68 FR 23954 (May 6, 2003).
12 See section 751(a)(2)(C) of the Act.

Cash Deposit Requirements
The following cash deposit requirements will be effective for all shipments of subject
merchandise entered, or withdrawn from warehouse, for consumption on or after the publication
date of the final results of this administrative review, as provided for by section 751(a)(2)(C) of
the Act: (1) the cash deposit rates for the companies listed in these final results will be equal to
the weighted-average dumping margins established in the final results of this review; (2) for
merchandise exported by producers or exporters not covered in this review but covered in a prior
segment of this proceeding, the cash deposit rate will continue to be the company-specific rate
published for the most recently completed segment in which the company was reviewed; (3) if
the exporter is not a firm covered in this review or the original less-than-fair-value (LTFV)
investigation, but the producer is, the cash deposit rate will be the rate established for the most
recently completed segment of this proceeding for the producer of the subject merchandise; and
(4) the cash deposit rate for all other producers or exporters will continue to be 5.58 percent,13
the all-others rate established in the LTFV investigation. These cash deposit requirements, when
imposed, shall remain in effect until further notice.
Notification to Importers
This notice serves as a final reminder to importers of their responsibility under 19 CFR
351.402(f)(2) to file a certificate regarding the reimbursement of antidumping duties prior to
liquidation of the relevant entries during this POR. Failure to comply with this requirement
could result in Commerce’s presumption that reimbursement of antidumping duties occurred and
the subsequent assessment of double antidumping duties.
Administrative Protective Order (APO)
This notice also serves as a reminder to parties subject to an APO of their responsibility
concerning the destruction of proprietary information disclosed under APO in accordance with
19 CFR 351.305(a)(3). Timely written notification of the return or destruction of APO materials

13 See LTFV Final Determination.

or conversion to judicial protective order is hereby requested. Failure to comply with the
regulations and terms of an APO is a sanctionable violation.
Notification to Interested Parties
We are issuing and publishing this notice in accordance with sections 751(a)(1) and
777(i)(1) of the Act, and 19 CFR 351.213(h) and 351.221(b)(5).
Dated: October 7, 2026.
Scot Fullerton,
Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary
for Antidumping and Countervailing Duty Operations.

Appendix
List of Topics Discussed in the Issues and Decision Memorandum
I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.

VI.

Summary
Background
Scope of the Order
Changes Since the Preliminary Results
Discussion of the Issues
Comment 1: NSC’s Domestic Brokerage Expenses
Comment 2: NSC’s Home Market Sales Window Period
Comment 3: Commerce’s Differential Pricing Methodology
Comment 4: NSC’s Export Price Sales in the Margin Program
Comment 5: Whether to Rescind the Administrative Review with Respect to MarubeniItochu Steel Inc. (MISI)
Recommendation

[FR Doc. 2026-20934 Filed: 10/13/2026 8:45 am; Publication Date: 10/14/2026]

决策记录链 · 只追加

每次领取产生一条记录,重新决策追加一条并以 supersedes 指向被替代的记录(ADR 0014)。

  1. 40502f9199 · 2026-10-13 20:51 · doubao / doubao-seed-evolving-latest-version · 策略包 2226518bfdee当前