Seoul Economic Daily EnglishCodex · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 08-05 22:41:28时区推断·⟳ 抓取 08-05 23:00:45·⚡ 决策 08-06 01:46:31 +2h45m·82.8 天前
韩国五大商业银行不可收回贷款升至七年高位
五大银行二季度末预计损失合计1.2109万亿韩元、同比上升26.6%，预防性贷款升至10.2177万亿韩元，显示韩国银行资产质量继续承压。
📄 原文Seoul Economic Daily English↗ 原文
Five Major Korean Banks' Unrecoverable Loans Hit 1.2 Trillion Won
Loans written off as unrecoverable by Korea's five major commercial banks have hit their highest level in seven years.…
不做 友利金融集团（316140.KS）
资产质量方向偏空但为行业汇总且缺少集团利润/拨备预期差量化，不足以直接开空；保留风险信号禁止新多。
不做 韩亚金融集团（086790.KS）
预计损失同比上升明显但未确认盈利指引下修或资本回报受损，当前只作风控风险，不开新空。
不做 新韩金融集团（055550.KS）
负面KPI成立但集团层面净损害量化不足，且近期韩国银行资产质量主题已有传播，不做方向性交易。
不做 KB金融集团（105560.KS）
KB国民银行预计损失同比仅上升4.7%，相对同业负面不强，不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-08-05 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 medium ↗
消息传播链
- 报道援引金融业数据称五大银行不可收回贷款和预防性贷款升至高位，是本次可见传播节点。市场反应:韩股已收盘，次一交易日才可反应。
关键理由
- 五大银行二季度末预计损失合计1.2109万亿韩元、同比上升26.6%，预防性贷款升至10.2177万亿韩元，显示韩国银行资产质量继续承压。
- 新韩、韩亚、友利银行预计损失分别同比上升48.0%、55.1%、80.9%，公司级经营KPI恶化足以短期禁止新多，但文章未给出相对拨备、资本充足率或一致预期差。
- KB国民银行仅同比上升4.7%、NH农协银行下降3.5%，负面主要集中在部分银行而非整个板块同等受损。
主要风险
- 该报道为行业口径汇总，部分坏账趋势可能已在二季度业绩与近期银行股走势中反映，直接开空的剩余edge不足。
- 缺少各金融控股集团层面的净利润/拨备覆盖率冲击量化，难以把风险升级为可执行SHORT。
反向证据
- 做空前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-08-05 · 影响 weakens
内部库未命中同一坏账统计，命中旧银行研报显示韩国主要金融集团此前仍有盈利与股东回报支撑，削弱直接开空力度。
检索:韩国 五大 银行 二季度 预计损失 1.2109万亿韩元 预防性贷款 10.2177万亿 Woori Hana Shinhan
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(4 种)
- search_processed_events · 结果未知
- stock_quote · 结果未知
- normalize_ticker · 结果未知
- kb_search · 结果未知
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,608 字
Loans written off as unrecoverable by Korea's five major commercial banks have hit their highest level in seven years. Precautionary loans, the stage just before default, have also surpassed 10 trillion won, adding to the burden of managing soundness in the banking sector.
According to the financial industry on the 5th, estimated losses at KB Kookmin, Shinhan, Hana, Woori and NH NongHyup totaled 1.2109 trillion won at the end of the second quarter this year, up 26.6% from the same period a year earlier. This marks the largest scale in seven years since the end of the second quarter of 2019 (1.2499 trillion won). Estimated losses refer to loans deemed effectively unrecoverable due to a sharp deterioration in the borrower's ability to repay.
By bank, Shinhan Bank recorded 342.1 billion won, up 48.0% in a year, while Hana Bank surged 55.1% and Woori Bank jumped 80.9%. In contrast, KB Kookmin Bank increased 4.7% and NH NongHyup Bank decreased 3.5%.
Distress in corporate lending was particularly pronounced. Estimated losses on corporate loans stood at 980.9 billion won, more than four times the estimated losses on household loans (229.8 billion won). The expansion in bad corporate loans is attributed to factors such as the downturn in the commercial real estate market.
Precautionary loans, the stage just before default, also rose 5.7% from a year earlier to 10.2177 trillion won. "Bad loans are on an upward trend due to sluggish domestic demand and the commercial real estate slump," a commercial bank official said. "We are focusing our capabilities on strengthening soundness management."
According to the financial industry on the 5th, estimated losses at KB Kookmin, Shinhan, Hana, Woori and NH NongHyup totaled 1.2109 trillion won at the end of the second quarter this year, up 26.6% from the same period a year earlier. This marks the largest scale in seven years since the end of the second quarter of 2019 (1.2499 trillion won). Estimated losses refer to loans deemed effectively unrecoverable due to a sharp deterioration in the borrower's ability to repay.
By bank, Shinhan Bank recorded 342.1 billion won, up 48.0% in a year, while Hana Bank surged 55.1% and Woori Bank jumped 80.9%. In contrast, KB Kookmin Bank increased 4.7% and NH NongHyup Bank decreased 3.5%.
Distress in corporate lending was particularly pronounced. Estimated losses on corporate loans stood at 980.9 billion won, more than four times the estimated losses on household loans (229.8 billion won). The expansion in bad corporate loans is attributed to factors such as the downturn in the commercial real estate market.
Precautionary loans, the stage just before default, also rose 5.7% from a year earlier to 10.2177 trillion won. "Bad loans are on an upward trend due to sluggish domestic demand and the commercial real estate slump," a commercial bank official said. "We are focusing our capabilities on strengthening soundness management."
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