📰 BloombergBloombergCodex · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 22:18:28时区推断·⟳ 抓取 22:30:34·⚡ 决策 07-27 22:32:05 +1m31s·91.7 天前
中国据报开始量产国产浸没式DUV光刻机，ASML盘中下跌
The Information称上海一家国家支持公司已开始制造浸没式DUV光刻机，若量产验证成功，长期可能替代ASML在中国的部分DUV需求。
📄 原文Bloomberg↗ 原文
ASML Holding NV shares slid to the lowest since early June after a report that a Chinese state-backed company has begun…
不做 ASML（ASML.US）
事件方向偏空，但国产DUV仍是小批量早期验证、ASML已有盘中快速下跌，且未取得Futu真实借券库存回执，不满足做空红线。
不做 芯源微（688037.SH）
可能有国产半导体设备主题联动，但本次核心是未具名上海公司浸没式DUV整机量产，芯源微不是被点名主体且直接敞口不足，不追盘后概念映射。
不做 北方华创（002371.SZ）
国产设备龙头受益链条过宽，事件未指向其订单、收入或产品突破；盘后A股只能隔日交易，追泛国产替代主题edge不足。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- The Information称上海一家国家支持公司开始量产浸没式DUV设备，目标今年约5台、2027年约20台，并拟交付SMIC、华虹和长鑫存储。
- Bloomberg转述该报道并指出ASML股价跌至6月初以来低位，盘中最大跌幅约6.6%。市场反应:ASML阿姆斯特丹股价由早盘上涨转为显著下跌。
- Investing.com称ASML美股盘中约跌4.5%，并提到Applied Materials、Lam Research、KLA等设备股也受拖累。市场反应:ASML.US盘中下跌，设备板块同步承压。
关键理由
- The Information称上海一家国家支持公司已开始制造浸没式DUV光刻机，若量产验证成功，长期可能替代ASML在中国的部分DUV需求。
- ASML二季度中国占净系统销售14%，ArFi/浸没式DUV约占净系统销售29%，该事件确实触及ASML仍有收入敞口的业务线。
- 但报道同时显示今年目标约5台、2027年约20台，远低于ASML去年131台浸没式DUV出货，短期基本面损害仍偏早期。
主要风险
- 报道基于匿名知情人士，未见ASML或中国设备方官方确认；若后续量产良率、客户导入或服务能力不及预期，负面影响会被削弱。
- ASML盘中已快速下跌，且未核到Futu真实借券库存，不能把负面判断直接升级为可执行做空。
反向证据
- 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-15 · 影响 weakens
ASML近期上调2026年指引，并计划提升EUV和DUV产能，AI和成熟制程需求仍支撑收入。
检索:ASML Q2 2026 guidance China DUV demand ArFi systems 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-27 · 影响 weakens
国产DUV计划产量相对ASML既有出货很小，且仍需客户验证；这支持不追A股泛设备主题。
检索:China immersion DUV lithography mass production five tools 2026 20 2027 ASML 131 systems 原文 ↗
原文全文
展开原文 · 925 字
ASML Holding NV shares slid to the lowest since early June after a report that a Chinese state-backed company has begun mass producing certain chipmaking machines which could present a potential threat to the Dutch firm’s sales.
The stock fell as much as 6.6%, having traded higher throughout the morning in Amsterdam.
A Shanghai-based company has started making immersion deep ultraviolet lithography tools, The Information reported on Monday, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter.
China’s contribution to ASML’s net system sales fell to 14% in the second quarter from 19% in the preceding three months.
Veldhoven, Netherlands-based ASML, which counts Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Electronics Co. among its customers, didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
The stock traded without the right to a dividend on Monday, adjusted for which the decline was as much as 6.5%.
The stock fell as much as 6.6%, having traded higher throughout the morning in Amsterdam.
A Shanghai-based company has started making immersion deep ultraviolet lithography tools, The Information reported on Monday, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter.
China’s contribution to ASML’s net system sales fell to 14% in the second quarter from 19% in the preceding three months.
Veldhoven, Netherlands-based ASML, which counts Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Electronics Co. among its customers, didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
The stock traded without the right to a dividend on Monday, adjusted for which the decline was as much as 6.5%.
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