英国财相 Healey 周三首份预算前瞻：拟上调银行附加费并向家庭提供供暖/燃油/工资救济，正式数字未落地

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey said his first budget would deliver “breathing space” for Britain, as Andy Burnham’s new administration seeks to sustain a poll bounce at minimal cost.

Wary of the adverse market reactions that greeted the fiscal plans of some short-lived predecessors, Healey has signaled a modest set of changes that prioritize short-term relief to households.

Healey’s plans, which are due to be outlined in the House of Commons at 12:30 p.m. on Wednesday, are expected to include targeted rebates on heating bills, an increase to the national living wage, and a freeze of fuel duty. Those measures are likely to arrive partly at the expense of banks, which are bracing to be taxed more to pay for it.

Burnham and Healey are hoping their program will sustain the improvement in public opinion Labour has enjoyed since the UK’s new premier replaced Keir Starmer in July. The governing party has increased its share in surveys of voter intention to 28%, up from about 19% just before Starmer’s resignation, according to Bloomberg’s composite poll, a rolling 14-day average using data from nine polling companies.

Billed as a steady-as-she-goes fiscal package while the government waits for global economic conditions to improve — including an end to the US-Iran war — the risk is that the budget isn’t seen to do enough to deliver on the new premier’s vision for a radical overhaul of Britain’s economic settlement.

Healey’s set piece arrives against a harsh global economic backdrop, where Britain has been caught up in a global surge in borrowing costs spurred by the fallout from the conflict in the Middle East.

His room for maneuver has been restricted by the limitations of Britain’s public finances, with the £23.6 billion ($31.4 billion) fiscal buffer he inherited from former Chancellor Rachel Reeves estimated to have halved because of higher debt-servicing costs. The chancellor is expected to leave the buffer at about £15 billion, according to the median estimate in a survey of primary government bond dealers.

“The world’s a highly uncertain place,” Healey said in a video message broadcast by the Treasury on Tuesday evening, where he highlighted issues like the rising energy prices that have strained household finances. “We can’t stop these shocks that hit Britain, but we can make Britain more resilient when they do.”

One of the main tax-raising measures Healey is expected to announce is an increase in the 3% surcharge banks pay above the normal 25% corporate tax rate. Other policies may include a VAT clampdown on online retailers, a fiscal devolution package, extra infrastructure investment and the details of a new equity loan program to help first-time homebuyers.

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Healey, Britain’s former defense secretary who was a long-time political apprentice of Gordon Brown, succeeded Reeves as chancellor after Starmer’s resignation in the summer. He has stressed a desire for fiscal discipline since taking the top job at the Treasury, as Burnham has tried to persuade markets that his government won’t oversee a significant increase in borrowing.

A slim package opens Labour up to challenge from the opposition Reform UK and Conservative parties, who have criticized Burnham for not doing more to cut welfare spending and boost defense. Healey himself resigned from the cabinet in June over his predecessor’s reluctance to increase defense spending, back when he was in charge of the brief.

Britain’s economic growth has proved resilient so far this year while it’s posted the fastest expansion among G7 economies in the first half, a spurt that many had expected to wane as the effect of the US-Iran war eats into household budgets. Britain has also won praise from the International Monetary Fund for its fiscal consolidation plans, which are progressing faster than peers such as France and the US.

“This budget is designed to give households breathing space from some of the everyday costs, provide targeted support for businesses and self-employed people, and to start the long-term action needed to get energy costs down for good,” Healey said in the video message. “But breathing space today must go hand-in-hand with building for the future.”