商船三井预计霍尔木兹航运中断可能延续至年底

The head of Japanese shipping company Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd. expects disruption in the Strait of Hormuz to last longer than previously assumed, with recent attacks elevating the risk for tankers attempting to move oil through the waterway.

“Given the current situation, it’s difficult to see operations resuming in any form by the end of the year,” Chief Executive Officer Jotaro Tamura said in an interview. “The situation continues to be well beyond the level of risk we can accept.”

Clashes between the US and Iran over control of Hormuz have intensified after a period of relative calm, raising the threat for vessels carrying Middle Eastern crude to global markets. After managing to move their ships out of the Gulf after the war began, risk-averse Japanese shipowners have largely avoided the region for safety reasons.

The disruption has forced Japan’s oil refiners – which before the war sourced more than 90% of their crude from the Middle East – to seek alternative supplies and routes, including the US, while drawing from the nation’s stockpiles to stave off shortages and price spikes.

Mitsui OSK had previously assumed a phased resumption of Hormuz transit from October, followed by a return to normal operations from January. That timeline now appears likely to slip, Tamura said. The resumption of crossings “is likely to be pushed back,” he said, “but at this stage, it’s difficult to say by how much.”

Read More: US-Iran Clashes Escalate as Fears Grow of Extended Conflict

While Japanese tankers have stayed away, other vessels have transited Hormuz in recent months, sometimes switching off their transponders to avoid detection. As of last week, about 6 million to 8 million barrels of crude were crossing the strait every day, according to oil traders’ estimates, although that was before the latest strikes.

For Mitsui OSK to resume regular transits, Tamura said the company would need confidence that safe passage could be sustained across multiple voyages, rather than assessing the risk on a vessel-by-vessel, day-by-day basis. Sailing with transponders turned off shouldn’t become the norm, he added, because that would mean ships were operating on the assumption that an attack could occur.

On a more positive note, as Japanese refiners diversify crude supplies, new routes are opening up for the nation’s shipping lines. Tamura said Mitsui OSK was seeing stronger demand from the US and West Africa, echoing comments from the chief executive officer of rival Nippon Yusen KK, Takaya Soga, who told Bloomberg News last month that the company was in talks with refiners to help import oil from Latin America and Africa.