美国接手委内瑞拉逾650亿桶已探明储量、雪佛龙承诺五年投70亿美元扩产，推动已违约的委内瑞拉主权与PDVSA债券涨至近四个月高位，市场等待规模或达2000亿美元的债务重组方案

Venezuelan bonds have jumped since the Trump administration moved to take control of a huge swath of the country’s oil reserves, with investors factoring in the prospect of higher crude production as they await a debt restructuring that could top $200 billion.

The plan, which gives the US control of more than 65 billion barrels of proven reserves, has pushed prices for defaulted government and state oil company bonds to near a four-month high, with sovereign notes due in 2027 hitting 54 cents on the dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Including accrued unpaid interest, those prices imply a recovery of about less than a third of total claims.

While details remain scarce, the agreement could help drive a significant increase in production, putting Venezuela’s goal of 1.5 million barrels a day within reach over the next year or two, analysts said.

That prospective jump in oil revenue is already making the debt more attractive to some investors. “We like what we’re seeing,” said Damien Buchet, chief investment officer at Principal Finisterre. The oil deal “leads to a higher probability of US dollar inflows, which can then be used to secure debt service in the future.”

The move underscores how tightly the debt restructuring is tied to Venezuela’s oil output, which generates the bulk of the nation’s foreign-currency revenue. Investors have been modeling future production to estimate recovery values as they await a clearer picture of the size of the economy and how much debt it can carry, known as a debt sustainability analysis.

“The signal from the US and Venezuela oil deal is more important than the deal specifics at this point, which do need more clarity,” Morgan Stanley strategist Simon Waever wrote in a note. “For now we think this announcement reinforces our already optimistic production path.”

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. says Venezuelan production could potentially ramp up to 2 million barrels a day within five years if Trump’s deal holds and his call for $100 billion of oil investment comes to fruition.

On Wednesday, Chevron Corp. said it plans to invest $7 billion over the next five years through its joint ventures to more than double crude production in Venezuela. Italian energy producer Eni SpA is also planning a major increase in oil output there, Bloomberg News reported.

Still, gains in bonds have been somewhat limited as creditors wait for the government to unveil the debt report and an accompanying macroeconomic analysis that had initially been expected in June.

Waever of Morgan Stanley said some investors reduced their positions in Venezuelan debt on expectations that the report would show a debt load higher than many had estimated, which would result in lower recovery values.

VanEck’s David Austerweil expects the restructuring to be the largest sovereign rework on record, with the total debt pile reaching as much as $229 billion if the government includes commercial debt from PDVSA and obligations denominated in local currency.

“For bondholders, a recovery of Venezuela’s oil sector is the primary economic concern,” Austerweil wrote in a note last week. “It will be the only major source of the foreign currency needed to service the restructured bonds for many years.”

VanEck estimates the haircut could range from as little as 26% — if there’s a transition to an opposition-led government — to as much as 83% under political continuity.

At Jefferies’s trading desk, Javier Kulesz said announcements of private-sector investments in the energy sector should help build confidence in the near term, though ultimately investors will want to see capital actually being deployed.

“We remain constructive and expect further upside, but not wildly so given the many questions that still need to be answered,” Kulesz said.