Bloomberg深度：法国国债约60%由海外投资者持有，资金撤离或加剧债市波动

France’s heavy reliance on foreign investors in its debt marketis raising concern that it could become another driver of volatility.

The country has one of the highest levels of overseas ownership among major European nations, with non-residents holding about 60% of its debt, near the highest level in a decade, according to central bank filings. The comparable figure for the US and UK is roughly 30%.

While foreign investors take their time building up positions in a nation’s debt, they can jettison those bonds in haste when markets are stressed, research conducted by the Bank for International Settlements shows.

And right now there are plenty of high-yielding alternatives for them in markets elsewhere that aren’t grappling with the kind of financial and political ructions France is facing.

“France’s reliance on foreign demand could become a source of vulnerability,” said Luca Cazzulani, UniCredit’s head of strategy research. The scope for non-resident holders to “further reduce their holdings remains significant and should be regarded as a risk factor,” he said.

In a global debt report earlier this year, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development noted that a heavy foreign-investor presence, including hedge funds, can concentrate risk and lead to “deleveraging and fast outflows” that translate “volatility into higher funding costs.”

French markets have been rocked in the past month by concerns over the country’s mountain of debt and cost-of-living protests that turned violent. Ten-year borrowing costs are hovering near 5%, and the yield spread over German debt recently widened to the most in 15 years.

Concentration Risk

French bonds have historically appealed to global investors because of their good liquidity and relative stability, while also providing extra yield over German bunds, the region’s safest asset.

Foreign holdings of French debt far outstrip the equivalent share in other major developed nations. Non-residents accounted for around 34% of UK debt at the end of June and about 31% in the US at the end of 2025. In Italy they held a share of almost 37% in August and a mere 13% in Japan in March.

Traders say anecdotally that they see few domestic institutional buyers in France stepping into the market. Bond holdings at French insurance companies and banks accounted for 9.2% and 10.5% of the total, respectively, at the end of the second quarter, much lower than in the past.

According to Konstantin Veit, a portfolio manager overseeing European rates at Pacific Investment Management Company LLC, French authorities may encourage domestic banks to buy if demand for new issuance starts to look shaky.

French Bond Rout Draws Australia Pension Into Market Others Shun

“The big issue for France is they have to come to the market regularly,” Veit said. “If there’s a problem at one of the auctions, there could indeed be a situation where they call up the banks.”

Domestic households can help plug gaps in government finances, but France lacks a strong base of retail-bond buyers despite an average savings rate that’s well above the European Union average. By contrast, Italy’s government has made a push in recent years to rebuild retail holdings of its debt because households tend to stick with their investments for longer.

Greek Lesson

Greece and the UK show what can happen when foreign investors take flight.

In 2007, about 74% of Greek debt was held by non-residents — a share that plunged below 40% by 2011 as the extent of the country’s financial problems became apparent, according to data compiled by the Bruegel think-tank.

In 2022 in the UK, foreign investors sold a record£29 billion ($34.8 billion) of gilts in the two months that followed ex-Prime Minister Liz Truss’s unfunded tax cut proposals.

While it’s hard to track bond ownership because data is published with a lag, analysts are watching one of France’s largest foreign creditors — Japan — for signs investors are pulling money out. With Japanese yields near record highs there are expectations money will be brought back and invested at home.

Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management’s Shinji Kunibe said earlier this month that funds in his global fixed-income group had sold their entire holdings of French government bonds.

“Even if France hits its 5% deficit target, its debt keeps rising,” Riccardo Bellesia, an economist at Intesa Sanpaolo said. “Its weak point is who funds it.”