彭博7月17日解释性长文复盘比特币自去年10月12.6万美元高点腰斩至6万美元附近的成因（机构ETF资金退潮、Strategy首次卖币、Clarity Act立法停滞），非新增催化

The past year should have been good for Bitcoin: Congress has been debating new legislation that would put cryptocurrencies on a more solid legal footing, and the industry has avoided the scandals and forced liquidations that periodically crashed digital token prices in the past.

Yet the original cryptocurrency has lost half of its value since October, when it peaked above $126,000, with the slide taking it to levels not seen since September 2024. Earlier “crypto winters” were even worse, with peak-to-trough declines of as much as 80%. But the latest fall has been especially painful for Bitcoin true believers as it was driven more by a steady loss of interest among investors than any single bout of turmoil.

Here are some of the factors at play:

Just Another Asset Class?

On its launch in 2009, Bitcoin was promoted as an alternative to the traditional payments ecosystem mediated by banks and governments. It turned out that transactions using the technology were slow and expensive and its price is too volatile to be an appealing alternative to money. Proponents eventually began promoting it as a helpful store of value that allows investors to diversify their portfolios and hedge against inflation.

Bitcoin’s recovery from the last crypto winter in 2022 was driven partly by traditional financial institutions piling into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds — listed investment vehicles that are backed by the cryptocurrency. As a result, the dispassionate investment decisions of portfolio managers have become a significant determinant of Bitcoin demand.

Many bought into the argument that Bitcoin can hold its value through economic and political crises because, unlike traditional currencies, it isn’t controlled by central banks, and so its value can’t be debased by monetary authorities printing more of it. Some backers called it “digital gold,” comparing it to the metal that’s seen as a safe investment in times of turmoil.

For Bitcoin’s new institutional owners, however, the cryptocurrency hasn’t lived up to its billing as a useful haven through the price spike triggered by the Iran war. As market interest rates tracked inflation higher, the appeal of Bitcoin, which doesn’t pay holders any interest, has declined.

Instead, it’s been trading like other high-risk assets, putting it in competition with increasingly popular financial products such as perpetual futures and bets taken on prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi. Risk capital has also been gravitating toward big technology companies benefiting from the artificial intelligence boom.

Strategy’s Strategy

Bitcoin investors tend to take a keen interest in what their peers are doing. At the start of June, Strategy Inc., the largest corporate Bitcoin buyer, announced it had sold 32 Bitcoin, worth $2.5 million. It was its first such sale since December 2022, in the midst of the last crypto winter. The reaction was swift. By the end of that week, Bitcoin’s price had shed more than $10,000, falling below $60,000 for the first time in two years.

Strategy appeared on the crypto scene in 2020, when Michael Saylor turned his software firm into a Bitcoin proxy. It has accumulated more than 4% of the roughly 20 million tokens in circulation. Saylor has spent the years since pitching the idea that Strategy would never sell its Bitcoin but grow its hoard continuously.

Last year, it introduced preferred shares that pay a generous dividend. Some investors have questioned the sustainability of a business that pays out hefty dividends when the underlying asset offers zero yield. For a while, Strategy traded at a significant premium to its Bitcoin holdings. It is now closer to par as the business model comes under strain.

Read More: Strategy Raises Reserve to $3 Billion With Stock Sale

Seeking Clarity

Hopes that new legislation would set clearer rules for the crypto industry were high after Donald Trump returned to the White House last year. But debate over the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act has been so prolonged that it’s not clear if it will ever be passed.

The bill was supposed to build on last year’s Genius Act, which for the first time established regulations for the issuance and usage of stablecoins — cryptocurrencies that maintain a consistent value. The Clarity Act is meant for other cryptocurrencies, and would finally establish regulatory jurisdiction for tokens such as Bitcoin.

Clarity would split oversight of cryptocurrencies between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission, depending on whether a token is deemed a commodity or a security.

The banking industry fiercely opposes any move to allow stablecoins to pay interest. Democratic lawmakers are reluctant to approve legislation that may boost demand for crypto and further enrich Trump and other officials who have large crypto holdings. Trump’s recent disclosure that he earned $1.4 billion from crypto-related ventures last year has made the Clarity Act negotiations even more fractious.

Some lawmakers are also wary of giving legal cover to crypto as it’s often used in criminal activity and money laundering. One of the most contentious parts of the bill is Section 604, which would shield blockchain developers from being classified as money transmitters in legal disputes. Law enforcement groups, including the National District Attorneys Association, warned in a June 23 open letter to Patrick J. Witt, executive director of the President’s Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, that the provision could create a safe harbor for criminal transactions.