📰 BloombergBloombergDoubao · 实盘不做把握 7/10不做原因:风险收益比不佳
北京时间·🕒 发布 21:08:38·⟳ 抓取 21:13:57 +5m19s·⚡ 决策 10-22 21:15:59 +2m02s·4.8 天前
黑石总裁Jon Gray在Q3财报后接受Bloomberg TV采访，反驳AI泡沫论并称需求近乎抛物线式增长
这是超大市值资管公司高管在财报后电视采访中的观点性背书：无新增订单、费用、资本承诺或盈利指引，且与Ken Griffin的泡沫论形成多空对撞，方向与持续性都不构成可交易边际；对被点名的CoreWeave还隐含融资偏紧信息。属于软催化/情绪噪音，正期望不足。
📄 原文Bloomberg↗ 原文
Blackstone Inc. President Jon Gray pushed back on the notion that there’s an AI bubble, just days after billionaire Ken…
不做 Blackstone Inc.（BX.US）
超大市值资管龙头高管电视采访中的定性观点（需求parabolic、非泡沫），无新增订单/AUM/费用/指引等财务增量，且与Griffin泡沫论对撞，属软催化情绪噪音，风险收益不足以开仓
不做 CoreWeave Inc.（CRWB.US）
被间接点名且核心信息是neocloud当下融资困难，Gray对其未来融资的安抚未被证实，净方向mixed、无基本面增量，不据此做多也不凭一句观点做空
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
Gray“需求parabolic、AI非泡沫”的表态是定性情绪背书，未给Blackstone或任何具体标的带来可量化的收入/订单/指引增量，且与Griffin泡沫论对撞，难以形成可执行的方向性edge，故回避。
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-10-22 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 low ↗
关键理由
- 无：本次核心内容是高管观点而非新财务事实，对任何上市主体均无可核验的盈利或现金流增量
主要风险
- Gray与Griffin观点直接对撞，市场短期对AI板块情绪可能双向波动，依据单一采访做多/做空都易被反向表态或当日风险偏好淹没
- 文中承认neocloud融资困难，若市场聚焦该细节，对CoreWeave等高估值AI云标的反而是偏空信号，进一步削弱单边做多逻辑
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-10 · 影响 weakens
就在数日前提及Citadel创始人Ken Griffin明确称AI几乎肯定处于泡沫中，与Gray观点直接对撞，削弱单边情绪利好
检索:Ken Griffin AI almost certainly bubble 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-10 · 影响 weakens
正文承认neocloud难以获得充足融资，说明高景气叙事下融资端已出现约束，对高估值AI云链不是无条件利好
检索:neocloud CoreWeave financing difficulty data center funding 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例与机制均指向软催化无稳定edge，直接支持AVOID，而非生成任何方向的仓位
方向:无可用于校准的同类先例：大佬对AI估值的多空表态属情绪型软催化，历史上对超大市值金融/资管标的缺乏稳定的次日方向，不适合据此设定止盈止损
涨幅量级:不足：观点性采访无金额或指引增量，缺乏同市场、同相位、可锚定首发的对齐样本
形态:此类高管公开喊话常见盘中情绪冲高后随其他宏观信息回落，但无可靠首发样本支撑量化模式
工具执行结果 · 成功 1 · 降级 0 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
- search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 2,487 ms
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原文全文
展开原文 · 1,566 字
Blackstone Inc. President Jon Gray pushed back on the notion that there’s an AI bubble, just days after billionaire Ken Griffin said investors are “almost certainly” in the midst of one.
“When you think about a bubble, you think about building capacity and then hoping the demand comes,” Gray said in an interview with Bloomberg TV Thursday after the firm reported its third-quarter results. “With AI, you’re building capacity, and you’re hoping you can keep up with the demand.”
It’s “a very different dynamic” from phenomena such as the 1990s telecom bubble, he said. Gray pointed to an AI consulting firm Blackstone created with Anthropic PBC called Ode.
“We can’t keep up with customer demand,” he said. “Demand is almost parabolic.”
Gray, 56, is making AI the biggest bet of his career, having amassed a $200 billion data-center empire and embedded AI into the hundreds of businesses Blackstone controls. But with the massive amount of spending going into data centers, some investors have likened the exuberance over AI to the lead-up to the dot-com crash.
Read More: Ken Griffin Says AI ‘Almost Certainly’ in a Bubble Right Now
For its part, Blackstone is pushing to build the infrastructure and long-term assets needed to power the AI boom, according to Gray. Speaking to Bloomberg, he acknowledged that so-called neoclouds — AI-first cloud computing providers like CoreWeave Inc. — have been struggling to obtain adequate financing.
“The main business for the neoclouds is quite good,” he said. “I think these neoclouds will find sources of capital.”
“When you think about a bubble, you think about building capacity and then hoping the demand comes,” Gray said in an interview with Bloomberg TV Thursday after the firm reported its third-quarter results. “With AI, you’re building capacity, and you’re hoping you can keep up with the demand.”
It’s “a very different dynamic” from phenomena such as the 1990s telecom bubble, he said. Gray pointed to an AI consulting firm Blackstone created with Anthropic PBC called Ode.
“We can’t keep up with customer demand,” he said. “Demand is almost parabolic.”
Gray, 56, is making AI the biggest bet of his career, having amassed a $200 billion data-center empire and embedded AI into the hundreds of businesses Blackstone controls. But with the massive amount of spending going into data centers, some investors have likened the exuberance over AI to the lead-up to the dot-com crash.
Read More: Ken Griffin Says AI ‘Almost Certainly’ in a Bubble Right Now
For its part, Blackstone is pushing to build the infrastructure and long-term assets needed to power the AI boom, according to Gray. Speaking to Bloomberg, he acknowledged that so-called neoclouds — AI-first cloud computing providers like CoreWeave Inc. — have been struggling to obtain adequate financing.
“The main business for the neoclouds is quite good,” he said. “I think these neoclouds will find sources of capital.”
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