AI科技巨头CDS信用风险创纪录新高，市场担忧财报后债券供给潮压垮债市

Gauges of credit risk for some of the biggest technology companies hit fresh highs on Tuesday, as investors brace for an onslaught of post-earnings bond sales they fear may overwhelm already overloaded debt markets.

Meta Platforms Inc. and SpaceX kick off earnings for the cohort this week, and investors will look for updates to their spending plans and AI ambitions. With tech companies having raised their estimates many times already, debtholders anticipate a steady barrage of debt sales to fund the buildout, according to Lotfi Karoui, multi-asset credit strategist at Pacific Investment Management Co. — a potential overhang of supply that is driving the cost of insuring tech bonds higher.

Credit default swaps tied to Oracle Corp., broadly seen as a barometer for AI debt risk, traded as high as a record 343 basis points, ICE Data Services data shows. A gauge of Meta’s credit risk has also touched an all-time high, soaring as much as 6.3 basis points to 114.8 basis points ahead of its earnings report Wednesday, the data shows.

“We have yet to find some kind of a landing zone for the level of debt issuance that the market needs to absorb,” said Karoui in an interview Tuesday. “There’s still a wide range of estimates as how much debt capital this build out will end up consuming in general.”

Companies have already borrowed more than $450 billion this year worldwide to fund artificial intelligence, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Now, after tech firms deliver their latest results and exit the so-called blackout period, they’re expected to tap the market again with what may be large offerings.

Bondholders have been trimming some of their existing exposure to the sector to make room for potentially sizable issuance. Dealers, typically banks, bought some $451 million of hyperscaler bonds on Monday, the highest net buying since mid-September, analysts at Bank of America Corp. estimated — likely a result of investors selling hyperscaler debt due to supply and demand concerns, they said.

Investors are anticipating Meta will sell bonds in the coming days. Any offering from the tech giant would snap a more than two-month drought in Big Tech US dollar bond issuance. SpaceX, meanwhile, is in talks with banks and investors to raise $40 billion to buy chips from Nvidia Corp.

Meta indicatedto investors in April, when it last sold US bonds, that it wouldn’t tap that market again until at least the fourth quarter. That message, aimed at supporting demand for the April issuance, has led market participants to believe that the tech company would issue in the US market once more this year to support its rising AI investment and spendingtargets.

Since 2022, Meta has posted third-quarter results on the last Wednesday of October, but this year it’s posting them on Oct. 21, the second-to-last Wednesday of the month. Some investors see that timing as designed to give Meta more flexibility to sell bonds sometime after its earnings release and before November midterm elections. CreditSights analyst Jordan Chalfin wrote in a note last month that he sees the possibility of a large post-earnings transaction.

Meta’s April offering was a $25 billion six-part deal. It has since been speaking to bond investors in Europe for a potential issue, as large tech firms known as hyperscalers tap different markets globally to finance their AI expansion.

A Meta representative didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Rush to Hedge

Big Tech’s aggressive AI spending plans and record borrowing have put the sector under fresh scrutiny at a time when investors are increasingly questioning whether the outlays will generate sufficient returns. That’s boosted demand for credit default swaps tied to the sector, while pushing trading volumes to new highs. Riskier credits in the sector such as CoreWeave Inc. have seen their shares and debt hit particularly hard.

Trading volume for CDS tied to the ten largest hyperscalers and chipmakers has surged 691% to a record $140 billion this year through September, according to an analysis of trade repository data by Barclays Plc credit strategist Jigar Patel. That’s up from around $17.7 billion in the same period last year, though some swaps started trading only recently.

“As AI-related issuance and financing needs continue to grow, investors are becoming more conscious of correlated exposures across what were previously viewed as distinct credits,” said Steven Kohlenstein, a fixed income portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price.

SpaceX is set to report earnings after the bell Tuesday, and last raised money in the high-grade market with a $25 billion offering in June, its first note sale. Five-year credit default swaps on the company’s debt rose early Tuesday to as much as 242 basis points, an intra-day record, ICE data shows. The swaps started actively trading in June at around 111 basis points.

Macroeconomic uncertainty, higher global interest rates, and concerns that shifts in the US political backdrop could erode support for the industry have weighed on issuance in recent weeks. The last big tech bond sale in the US was from Google’s parent company Alphabet in August.

Many market participants expect large tech bond sales to pick up after the midterm elections later this year, and more meaningfully in 2027.