哈萨克斯坦央行连续第三次降息，基准利率下调50个基点至16.25%，同时警告进一步降息空间有限

Kazakhstan cut its key interest rate for a third consecutive meeting after inflation in Central Asia’s largest oil producer slowed to the lowest level in more than a year, though policymakers warned the room for further reductions has narrowed.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan reduced the benchmark by 50 basis points to 16.25% on Friday. Two economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast a cut to 16%, while six expected a decrease of 25 basis points and one predicted no change.

“Moderately tight monetary conditions and a strong tenge exchange rate will contribute to a slowdown in price growth,” the Astana-based central bank said in a statement. Still, given increased inflationary factors and risks, “the scope for further reductions is limited.”

Governor Timur Suleimenov signaled after a surprise cut in July that more easing was possible, with the key rate potentially coming down to 16% should price growth slow to within 9%-9.5%. Annual inflation reached 9.8% in August, the statistics office said this week.

The bank kept its inflation forecast for the year unchanged at 9%-11%, but revised upward the outlook for 2027 to 6.5%-8.5% from 5.5%-7.5% earlier.

As crude prices have surged, the tenge’s nearly 11% appreciation against the dollar this year has contributed to curbing inflation. The national currency gained about 4% since the last rate decision.

While the slowdown in price growth has allowed monetary easing, inflation is still running at almost double policymakers’ medium—term 5% target. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emphasized the importance of further stabilizing costs at an Aug. 19 meeting with Suleimenov, whom he later reappointed as governor.

The authorities have stepped up cooperation to tame inflation as the government also targets economic growth of at least 5.3% in 2027-2029. Tokayev reappointed Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov after the new pro-presidential party Adilet won parliamentary elections on Aug. 23 as part of a political overhaul.

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Kazakhstan expects to sell $200 million to $300 million in foreign currency from its oil fund in September, compared with $200 million in August. The nation scrapped mandatory dollar sales by state-run companies since July 15.

The government plans to boost withdrawals from the oil fund to 4.4 trillion tenge ($9.6 billion) in 2027 compared 2.77 trillion tenge this year, after it decided to resume additional transfers to the budget.

The tenge will likely gradually weaken in the second half of this year, particularly if the central bank continues monetary normalization, S&P Global Ratings said Aug. 21, raising Kazakhstan’s sovereign credit score one notch to BBB, the second-lowest investment grade.

The central bank, whose next policy meeting is scheduled for Oct. 23, set its rates corridor — formed from the overnight deposit and lending rates — at plus-or-minus one percentage point around the benchmark.