百事公司Poppi业绩对赌付款估值从1.17亿美元骤降至约1200万美元，北美汽水销量继续疲软

PepsiCo Inc. has signaled its Poppi brand of prebiotic sodas is missing the growth benchmarks needed to trigger a bonus payment.

As of Sept. 5, PepsiCo estimates the value of performance-based payments related to the Poppi acquisition at around $12 million, according to a securities filing. That marks a steep decline from the $117 million PepsiCo recorded in June, and the $278 million it projected in December.

The company acquired Poppi for nearly $2 billion last year and agreed to an additional payout of $300 million if it meets undisclosed growth milestones by the third quarter of 2027.

Poppi is known for splashy, social media-friendly marketing and low-sugar flavors like Shirley Temple and Sour Apple. Earlier this year, PepsiCo focused one of its four Super Bowl commercials on the brand. The soda line more recently inked promotional deals with the Dallas Cowboys and reality series Love Island USA.

PepsiCo didn’t comment on the declining valuation of Poppi’s future payment. A PepsiCo spokesperson said Monday that Poppi had double-digit sales volume growth in the third quarter and gained share in the carbonated soft drinks market.

PepsiCo has struggled with its North America soda business. Organic volume growth for the beverage division, which reported $7.7 billion in overall sales, declined slightly in the third quarter, missing Wall Street expectations.

Chief Executive Officer Ramon Laguarta said on PepsiCo’s earnings call last week that the company is “dissatisfied” with the performance of its soft drinks, and that it needs to improve its overall execution. It’ll invest more in Poppi, along with Pepsi and Mountain Dew, he added.

The payment valuation, or so-called contingent consideration liability measured at fair value, represents a company’s best estimate of expected future disbursements. The valuation is based on simulations of future performance, including Poppi’s net revenue and margin forecasts, according to the filing. PepsiCo has yet to disclose many public details about the brand’s sales.

“At this rate, it seems plausible that they may not pay any of the $300 million unless Poppi’s performance rebounds markedly over the next year,” said Kenneth Shea, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst covering the beverage industry. The payment, if made, would go to Poppi’s shareholders and founders, Allison and Stephen Ellsworth.

Laguarta told analysts in July that transitioning Poppi from its previous distributor to PepsiCo’s system had “a bit of an impact” on the soda’s performance in the first half of this year. He said at the time that the issue had been solved and the brand was still growing.

PepsiCo has been on a push over the past few years to beef up its lineup of healthier snacks and drinks. It’s expanding Poppi beyond regular sodas in a bid for more growth.

Last week, Poppi announced two additions to its lineup of drinks: Poppi Lift, an energy-like beverage with 70 milligrams of caffeine, and Poppi Chill, which claims to encourage relaxation with magnesium and L-theanine.