BNP上调波音评级叠加FAA批准737 MAX 7，但股价盘中已大幅反应

Boeing Co.’s stock jumped Monday after the lone bear on the stock — BNP Paribas — threw in the towel and upgraded the shares by two notches, saying there is now a path for the stock to more than double by 2030.

Analyst Matthew Akers raised Boeing to outperform from underperform, saying free cash flow estimates for the company have come down “too far,” and that risks will be significantly reduced over the coming year as the planemaker wraps up aircraft certifications and lowers its debt.

“The post-Covid era of uncertainty for Boeing is over,” Akers wrote in a note to clients on Monday. “This clarity likely allows the stock to finally break out of the $150-$250 range it has been stuck in since early 2020.”

He also sees a path for the stock to reach $450 by the end of the decade. Akers raised his price target on Boeing to $300, the highest among analysts tracked by Bloomberg. Baird analyst Peter Arment also holds a $300 target on Boeing.

Boeing shares rose as much as 6.8% in intraday trading as of 1:38pm in New York. The Federal Aviation Administration announced on Monday that it signed off on Boeing’s 737 Max 7 jet, ending a certification process that had dragged on for almost a decade.

The company’s stock had gained about 4.2% since the start of the year, lagging the S&P 500 index’s 10.6% climb.

With this latest upgrade, more than 80% of the analysts tracked by Bloomberg recommend buying Boeing, and the rest say hold.

Over the next year, certifications for some of the Max and 777 jets will boost operational stability, Akers said. Meanwhile, he estimates Boeing’s net leverage will revert to near pre-pandemic historical norms over the next year.

The impact of non-recurring defense charges is also expected to diminish significantly, the analyst wrote, lowering the drag on cash flow and helping return investor focus to the accelerating commercial business.

As a result, Akers raised his 2027 free cash flow estimate to $7 billion, compared to the $6.23 billion that analysts on average have modeled, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“As the primary drags on cash - development costs, customer concessions, and legacy defense charges - subside, we forecast free cash flow reaching about $16 billion by 2030,” the analyst wrote.

“Applying a current industrial free cash flow yield and historical Boeing discount, this implies a ~$450 share price, about twice its current level and a return to new highs for the first time since 2019,” the analyst said.