📰 BloombergBloombergQwen · 实盘不做把握 8/10不做原因:无增量信息
北京时间·🕒 发布 09-01 21:07:49·⟳ 抓取 09-01 21:19:44 +11m55s·⚡ 决策 09-02 00:17:38 +2h57m·56.0 天前
UBS研报称中国十年内难以开发出可替代ASML EUV光刻机的方案，但2-5年内可量产浸没式DUV
这是UBS分析师研报/观点，非新事实、非公司公告、非监管动作。核心内容（中国EUV光刻远落后ASML、DUV有进展）是市场长期共识，ASML当日股价持平证明市场不认为有增量信息。无可交易的短期催化，无方向性edge。
📄 原文Bloomberg↗ 原文
China is unlikely to advance its semiconductor manufacturing capabilities fast enough to develop a viable alternative t…
不做 ASML（ASML.US）
研报确认EUV护城河是市场长期共识，ASML当日持平无反应，无增量信息、无短期催化、无交易edge
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
UBS发布研报评估中国光刻技术进展，结论为EUV替代十年内不可行、DUV 2-5年可量产。这是分析师观点而非新事实：中国光刻差距是多年公开共识，ASML股价当日持平无反应，说明市场已完全消化该信息。研报未点名任何具体中国上市公司，未产生新的供需/订单/政策变化，不构成短期交易催化。
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-09-01 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 high ↗
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原文全文
展开原文 · 1,904 字
China is unlikely to advance its semiconductor manufacturing capabilities fast enough to develop a viable alternative to ASML Holding NV’s cutting-edge extreme ultraviolet technology within the next decade, UBS Group AG analysts predict.
“They seem to be at a similar stage to ASML in 2004,” UBS analysts led by Francois-Xavier Bouvignies wrote in a note.
Beijing has been investing state capital into the domestic chip industry to become self sufficient. Its progress has been stymied by Washington-led restrictions on exports of cutting-edge chip-making equipment.
Veldhoven, Netherlands-based ASML is the only maker of sophisticated lithography machines that are crucial for manufacturing advanced semiconductors, including for Nvidia Corp. The chip-equipment giant is banned from selling its extreme ultraviolet lithography tools to China, which is among its top markets.
Read More: How China’s Chipmaking Advances Threaten Big Tech: Explainer
UBS analysts cited patent activity, particularly around light source and laser subsystems, as showing maturity comparable to ASML 15 years before it began mass producing its EUV tools.
“Given likely gaps in yield and throughput versus ASML, along with regulatory constraints, we see it as unlikely that Chinese lithography tools will be deployed outside China,” they said.
Still, UBS expects China to develop the capability for high-volume manufacturing of immersion deep ultraviolet lithography machines within two to five years. While less advanced than EUV systems, immersion DUV machines are still essential to chipmaking, using light to print intricate circuit patterns onto silicon wafers.
ASML prices its immersion DUV machines at close to $90 million compared with the advanced EUV gear that costs more than $200 million apiece.
An ASML spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment. Its shares traded flat in Amsterdam on Tuesday.
“They seem to be at a similar stage to ASML in 2004,” UBS analysts led by Francois-Xavier Bouvignies wrote in a note.
Beijing has been investing state capital into the domestic chip industry to become self sufficient. Its progress has been stymied by Washington-led restrictions on exports of cutting-edge chip-making equipment.
Veldhoven, Netherlands-based ASML is the only maker of sophisticated lithography machines that are crucial for manufacturing advanced semiconductors, including for Nvidia Corp. The chip-equipment giant is banned from selling its extreme ultraviolet lithography tools to China, which is among its top markets.
Read More: How China’s Chipmaking Advances Threaten Big Tech: Explainer
UBS analysts cited patent activity, particularly around light source and laser subsystems, as showing maturity comparable to ASML 15 years before it began mass producing its EUV tools.
“Given likely gaps in yield and throughput versus ASML, along with regulatory constraints, we see it as unlikely that Chinese lithography tools will be deployed outside China,” they said.
Still, UBS expects China to develop the capability for high-volume manufacturing of immersion deep ultraviolet lithography machines within two to five years. While less advanced than EUV systems, immersion DUV machines are still essential to chipmaking, using light to print intricate circuit patterns onto silicon wafers.
ASML prices its immersion DUV machines at close to $90 million compared with the advanced EUV gear that costs more than $200 million apiece.
An ASML spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment. Its shares traded flat in Amsterdam on Tuesday.
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