挪威南部水库蓄能创同期新低，推高欧洲冬季电价和用气风险

Reservoirs that supply southern Norway with electricity fell to a record low for this time of year, raising the risk of higher power prices and greater reliance on natural gas across Europe this winter.

Hydro stocks in Norway’s southernmost NO2 price area held just 15.6 terawatt-hours of stored energy, according to data from the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate. That’s below the previous seasonal low of 15.7 terawatt-hours set in 1996.

Norway is one of Europe’s biggest power exporters, with its vast hydropower system providing flexible electricity that can help neighboring markets when wind and solar generation is low. Depleted reservoirs reduce that buffer.

Read More: Norway’s Driest Winter in Years Threatens Europe’s Power Market

The shortage follows months of dry weather and low snowfall in parts of Norway last winter. Unless heavy rainfall replenishes reservoirs this autumn, reduced hydropower supplies could boost the use of gas, which currently trades at its highest level since early 2023 because of the US-Iran war.

“There’s a risk of really high prices” for electricity, said Katinka Bogaard, managing director at Volt Power Analytics in Oslo.

The impact could persist throughout the winter and into spring, Bogaard said. An early cold spell would compound the problem because precipitation would fall as snow and remain frozen in the mountains rather than flow into reservoirs.

Norwegian households are largely shielded from wholesale price swings by government support. Industrial consumers, however, could face higher costs if they haven’t sufficiently hedged their power purchases.

Regulator NVE said last week that security of supply isn’t currently at risk, but it imposed stricter reporting requirements on power producers in the central Norway NO3 region, which is typically a net importer of electricity during winter. The rules could be extended to other parts of the country if the hydro situation fails to improve.