穆迪维持法国Aa3评级（负面展望）未降级，法国股债周一双双反弹但行情已在欧股盘中兑现

France’s bonds and stocks gained after the nation dodged a downgrade at Moody’s Ratings, pausing a selloff that has roiled domestic assets in recent weeks.

Yields on 10-year bonds, also known as OATs, fell four basis points to 4.98%, while those on German counterparts rose three basis points to 3.38%, narrowing the gap between the pair by seven basis points to 161 basis points. Stocks rose, outpacing European peers, and the euro was steady at $1.1205 even as most Group-of-10 currencies fell.

Moody’s kept France’s rating steady at Aa3 with a negative outlook on Friday, surprising many who had expected a downgrade. The firm said it’s baseline assumption is that “a deficit-reducing budget for 2027 will eventually be adopted, possibly by decree,” despite the nation’s challenging political and social environment.

“Moody’s decision on Friday to not downgrade France will be a pleasant surprise for a battered OATs,” said Rohan Khanna, head of European rates strategy at Barclays Plc. But he questioned how far the tailwind from the decision will last, citing upcoming European Central Bank and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions as well as inflation numbers for October among a host of potential triggers.

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France’s CAC 40 Index rose as much as 0.9% on Monday, outperforming European peers. A Barclays Plc basket of French stocks with high domestic exposure gained 1.4%. Still, the CAC 40 is an underperformer in 2026, falling about 4% while the Stoxx Europe 600 gained nearly 8%.

The country’s ever-increasing debt mountain is fueled by a deficit set to blow out to 5.4% of economic output this year. Political gridlock, slumping growth and rising interest costs have derailed attempts at consolidation.

Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has proposed a finance bill to sharply constrain spending and raise tax revenues to meet a deficit goal of 5% next year, but the blueprint’s future is uncertain as he has no majority in parliament. France’s National Assembly on Friday rejected the “receipts” portion of the 2027 social security budget bill, which sends the original version of the draft law to the Senate.

Investors’ unease regarding political deadlock and potential hurdles passing the budget have fueled a selloff in the nation’s bonds. The premium investors demand to hold French 10-year bonds over German peers has surged over the past month, reaching 178 basis points last week, the highest since 2011.

“We were surprised by Moody’s not downgrading,” said Piers Hillier, CIO at Jupiter on France. “Maybe it’s just a matter of time. But the backdrop there is not getting any better any time soon.”

Moody’s decision to keep France at its current level for now means that its score remains one notch higher than those of S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings, which both cut their assessments during a budget clash in the fall of 2025.