📰 BloombergBloombergCodex · 实盘不做把握 5/10不做原因:风险收益比不佳
北京时间·🕒 发布 08-26 23:53:09时区推断·⟳ 抓取 00:03:18·⚡ 决策 08-27 00:06:38 +3m20s·61.8 天前
F-35项目采办成本较2023年底上调约510亿美元，涉及Lockheed、Pratt与Northrop雷达等升级成本
这是F-35长期项目成本估算更新，不是清晰的新订单或盈利上修；对主承包商和供应商同时包含收入/研发资金利好与成本超支、审计和预算压力利空，当前无法形成正期望单边交易。
📄 原文Bloomberg↗ 原文
The cost of the Lockheed Martin Corp. F-35 program — already the most expensive in US history — has risen by about $51…
不做 Lockheed Martin Corp.（LMT.US）
F-35成本上调不是明确新增盈利订单，预算增量与成本超支/审查风险并存，做多和做空都缺少足够单边edge。
不做 RTX Corp.（RTX.US）
发动机相关研发和采购成本被点名，但未披露RTX可确认新增利润或合同节奏，事件弹性不足。
不做 Northrop Grumman Corp.（NOC.US）
APG-85雷达只是成本估算组成之一，缺少金额拆分和新合同确认，不能独立交易。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
Bloomberg报道F-35采办成本较2023年底上调约510亿美元至5360亿美元，名义上增加飞机、发动机、雷达、软件和备件投入，但该增量来自长期项目估算修订，并伴随GAO将F-35列入浪费项目、Block 4延期和战备不足等负面语境。对Lockheed Martin Corp.（LMT.US）、RTX Corp.（RTX.US）和Northrop Grumman Corp.（NOC.US）均缺少可量化到短期收入/利润的新合同增量，且风险收益不支持追方向。
消息传播链
- Bloomberg盘中报道F-35采办成本估算上调约510亿美元至5360亿美元，并列出软件、备件、战备和发动机/雷达升级等原因
- 可见LMT在报道前一交易日8月25日收于556.52美元，近几日已有连续回落；未取得报道后盘中逐笔反应市场反应:8月25日LMT收跌1.35%，但这早于本次Bloomberg报道，不能作为本催化定价证据
关键理由
- 若预算最终落地，F-35产业链长期名义收入池扩大，但本条新闻只是采办估算上调而非新增合同签署。
- 量级上，510亿美元是项目生命周期采办成本增量，不等同于LMT/RTX/NOC当期新增收入；无法可靠换算到年度营收或利润贡献。
- 事件语境同时强调成本超支、备件短缺、Block 4延误和GAO批评，削弱了把成本增加直接视为利好的交易逻辑。
主要风险
- 若国防部后续明确追加采购合同或提高批次价格且利润率可确认，LMT/RTX/NOC可能重新具备可交易利好。
- 若国会或GAO审查升级、压价或削减采购，成本上调可能转化为项目承压利空。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-08-26 · 影响 weakens
正文同时披露GAO将F-35列入浪费项目、战备和零部件短缺仍是主要担忧，削弱把成本上调直接视作承包商利好的逻辑。
检索:F-35 cost overrun GAO wasteful programs readiness spare parts Block 4 delays 原文 ↗ - 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-08-26 · 影响 weakens
报道未确认Lockheed承担新增损失、被罚、合同取消或正式下调指引，负面强度不足以开空。
检索:F-35 program cost increase Lockheed Martin contractor liability margin penalty 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例证据不足使订单收敛为AVOID，不给LMT/RTX/NOC方向性交易。
方向:缺少已校验的同市场、同机制先例，不能用历史样本支持做多或做空。
涨幅量级:未取得可用event_study结果，无法校准tp/sl幅度。
形态:F-35成本超支类新闻常同时含预算增量与政治审查风险，本次不宜按单边利好处理。
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,945 字
The cost of the Lockheed Martin Corp. F-35 program — already the most expensive in US history — has risen by about $51 billion, or about 10%, since late 2023 because of software, readiness, spare parts and engine power improvements.
That increases the $485 billion acquisition cost to about $536 billion, according to agovernment report and the program office. The world’s most advanced defense program began in October 2001 and was envisioned at the time to be a $233 billion effort.
“We’re tracking the acquisition increase,” which includes $32 billion more for aircraft and engine procurement and about $19 billion associated with aircraft and Pratt & Whitney engine research and development, the program office said in a statement.
As of late July, 872 of a planned 2,470 US aircraft have been delivered, making it likely the acquisition estimate will increase further if testing uncovers new deficiencies, greater numbers of spare parts are needed or technological breakthroughs are incorporated.
The jet has been operational since 2015 and has flown combat missions in the Iran war, including off the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier.
The new estimate includes the cost of reducing Marine Corps purchases of the short-takeoff and vertical landing F-35B model in favor of the more expensive F-35C aircraft carrier model, the program office said. It also includes production costs of a classified high-performance Northrop Grumman Corp. radar called the APG-85 and final contract terms for the 18th and 19th production batches.
Also included are a “refinement” of estimates for the program’s package of 55 Block 4 software and hardware upgrades — already years behind schedule — “given latest contractor performance,” which added $900 million to the estimate, the program office said.
Some of the additional funding will buy more spare parts to improve F-35 readiness rates.
“Poor fleet readiness, driven by sustainment and parts shortages, remains a primary concern,” Air Force senior leaders told Congress this year.
A Lockheed Martin representative referred questions to the program office.
The $536 billion estimate is separate from the projected $1.5 trillion needed for decades of operations and support, which push total program costs to about $2 trillion.
“The $2 trillion price tag commonly reported in the media doesn’t come close to telling the whole story,” the program office report said. “Costs are calculated and forecasted over approximately 90 years” and include the jet, “engine, maintenance and training systems and simulators, combat data systems, long-term sustainment, and future capability development.”
“Even costs for fuel and the humans who maintain this air system are included in figures the program reports,” it said. “The growing global demand speaks for itself.”
Still, the Government Accountability Office included the F-35 in a June report that listed it in a rundown of “Wasteful Programs.”
That increases the $485 billion acquisition cost to about $536 billion, according to agovernment report and the program office. The world’s most advanced defense program began in October 2001 and was envisioned at the time to be a $233 billion effort.
“We’re tracking the acquisition increase,” which includes $32 billion more for aircraft and engine procurement and about $19 billion associated with aircraft and Pratt & Whitney engine research and development, the program office said in a statement.
As of late July, 872 of a planned 2,470 US aircraft have been delivered, making it likely the acquisition estimate will increase further if testing uncovers new deficiencies, greater numbers of spare parts are needed or technological breakthroughs are incorporated.
The jet has been operational since 2015 and has flown combat missions in the Iran war, including off the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier.
The new estimate includes the cost of reducing Marine Corps purchases of the short-takeoff and vertical landing F-35B model in favor of the more expensive F-35C aircraft carrier model, the program office said. It also includes production costs of a classified high-performance Northrop Grumman Corp. radar called the APG-85 and final contract terms for the 18th and 19th production batches.
Also included are a “refinement” of estimates for the program’s package of 55 Block 4 software and hardware upgrades — already years behind schedule — “given latest contractor performance,” which added $900 million to the estimate, the program office said.
Some of the additional funding will buy more spare parts to improve F-35 readiness rates.
“Poor fleet readiness, driven by sustainment and parts shortages, remains a primary concern,” Air Force senior leaders told Congress this year.
A Lockheed Martin representative referred questions to the program office.
The $536 billion estimate is separate from the projected $1.5 trillion needed for decades of operations and support, which push total program costs to about $2 trillion.
“The $2 trillion price tag commonly reported in the media doesn’t come close to telling the whole story,” the program office report said. “Costs are calculated and forecasted over approximately 90 years” and include the jet, “engine, maintenance and training systems and simulators, combat data systems, long-term sustainment, and future capability development.”
“Even costs for fuel and the humans who maintain this air system are included in figures the program reports,” it said. “The growing global demand speaks for itself.”
Still, the Government Accountability Office included the F-35 in a June report that listed it in a rundown of “Wasteful Programs.”
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