印度央行10月会议纪要：通胀与卢比疲软令进一步加息仍在桌面，立场转“校准紧缩”

Indian policymakers warned that accelerating inflation and a weakening rupee require continued vigilance, signaling further interest-rate hikes may be in store, minutes of the central bank’s October meeting showed.

The RBI earlier this month lifted borrowing costs for the first time in nearly four years to 5.5%, marking a sharp turn from the easing cycle overseen by Governor Sanjay Malhotra. It also shifted its policy stance to “calibrated tightening,” from “neutral” previously.

Malhotra said the extent and duration of the tightening cycle would depend on how growth and inflation evolve, particularly underlying price pressures and signs that the supply shock is spreading more broadly. The change in stance means rate cuts are off the table for now, leaving policymakers with a choice between further hikes and a pause, he added.

Most rate-setters saw little scope to let up on inflation, with the central bank’s latest forecasts showing price growth will remain elevated in the coming months.

Those concerns are already showing up in the data. Consumer-price growth accelerated to an almost two-year high in September, nearing the top of the RBI’s 2%-6% tolerance band. A weak monsoon threatens to keep food prices elevated, while the rupee’s decline could further stoke inflation by making imports more expensive.