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📰 BloombergBloombergCodex · 实盘不做把握 5/10不做原因:风险收益比不佳
北京时间·🕒 发布 21:52:06决策时所见发布时间偏差 −8h(已更正)·⟳ 抓取 22:01:26 +9m20s·⚡ 决策 09-03 22:03:04 +1m38s·53.7 天前

江波龙传以每股236港元为香港上市定价,略低于招股上限

事件增量主要是H股发行价从已披露上限略降至236港元;直接H股尚未上市不可交易,A股已在上市预期和存储景气中大幅重定价,缺少可执行正edge。

📄 原文Bloomberg↗ 原文
Shenzhen Longsys Electronics Co. priced its Hong Kong listing below the top end of the marketed range, according to peo…
不做 江波龙(301308.SZ)
H股定价只较招股上限小幅下调,核心上市信息已公开;A股已大幅重估且当前A股盘后不可成交,缺少次日追买edge。
不做 江波龙H股(09976.HK)
H股预计2026年9月8日才上市,当前二级市场不可交易;等上市首日真实成交和认购结果再评估。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

研究档案

结论摘要

港交所资料已显示江波龙H股代码09976、上市日为2026年9月8日,招股上限240.60港元;Bloomberg新增称最终定价236港元,仅较上限低约1.9%,并未带来新增订单、盈利上修或重大资本结构利好。A股江波龙已因AI存储和港股上市预期大涨,现阶段追A股或等待H股上市前买入都缺乏清晰风险收益。

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-09-03 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 high ↗ ↗ ↗

消息传播链

  1. 2026-08-31 06:12 HKT官方确认HKEX原文 ↗
    港交所披露江波龙09976全球发售文件,确认H股上市流程和招股文件已经公开。
  2. 2026-09-03 05:52 UTC首发Bloomberg非一手原文 ↗
    Bloomberg援引知情人士称江波龙H股定价为236港元,低于240.60港元上限。

关键理由

  • H股定价236港元对应募资约61.4亿港元,资金用途偏研发和战略投资,但对江波龙已约240亿美元市值的短线每股增量有限。
  • 2026年上半年收入241亿元、净利润106亿元的高增长已是招股材料和媒体报道中的显性背景,不是本次定价新闻的新增预期差。
  • H股相对A股约44%折价更像跨市场定价锚和潜在估值压力,而非A股继续重估的独立催化。

主要风险

  • 若9月8日H股上市后出现高认购倍数、首日强势并带动A/H折价收敛,可能重新形成右侧交易机会。
  • 存储价格上行和国产半导体政策仍是中期基本面支撑,但本次信号无法区分新增催化与已交易主题。

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-09-03 · 影响 weakens
    Bloomberg称236港元较深圳A股收盘价折让约44%,新增信息更偏估值折价而非A股正向催化。
    检索:Longsys Hong Kong IPO offer price discount A share HK$236 risk 原文 ↗
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-09-01 · 影响 weakens
    发行上限、发行规模、上市日期等主要上市信息已提前公开,本次定价传闻相对已知信息增量有限。
    检索:Longsys IPO maximum price HK$240.60 September 8 2026 原文 ↗

先例如何影响了这次决策

对本次决策的影响:先例不足未支持开仓,进一步压低对追A股的信心。

方向:未找到足以直接校准本次A股在H股定价日至上市日前反应的高相似先例。

涨幅量级:没有使用先例给tp/sl;本次结论主要由事件增量小、直接H股不可交易和A股price-in风险高决定。

形态:A+H上市定价类事件常同时包含融资、折价和流动性变化,需锚定A股而非H股首日表现;当前样本不足。

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原文全文

展开原文 · 3,309 字
Shenzhen Longsys Electronics Co. priced its Hong Kong listing below the top end of the marketed range, according to people familiar with the matter, joining a wave of Chinese companies along the artificial intelligence supply chain to debut in the city.

The memory chipmaker priced its shares at HK$236 ($30.10) apiece, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is private, below the maximum price of HK$240.60. That’s a discount of about 44% to Longsys’ 359.63 yuan ($53.52) closing price on Thursday in Shenzhen, where it’s been listed since 2022.

A representative for Longsys did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Longsys is selling about 26 million shares with an option to increase the size of the deal by as much as 15%. It is expected to start trading in Hong Kong on Sept. 8. The mainland-listed shares of the company controlled by founder Cai Huabo have more than tripled in the past year, giving it a market value of about $24 billion.

The offering builds on a wave of Chinese AI-linked firms raising capital in Hong Kong, a trend that’s driven the city’s dealmaking boom this year — highlighted by Zhongji Innolight Co.’s $7.8 billion offering in July, the biggest in seven years. With more than $45 billion in listing proceeds so far in 2026, the city is en route to surpass the record set in 2010.

Listings that are widely perceived as “beneficiaries of policy support have done pretty well and I think that’s also been telegraphed to onshore retail investors,” said Homin Lee, a senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier Singapore Ltd. “For the retail onshore investors, right now at this juncture, given the whole AI competition, a ‘sure thing’ is probably something related to semiconductors and the government’s very steady push for indigenizing the semiconductor ecosystem.”

Longsys plans to use the proceeds to support research and development in chip design and advanced memory technologies. Its revenue more than doubled to 24.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2026, while net profit jumped more than 700-fold to 10.6 billion yuan as strong demand and constrained wafer supply boosted memory prices.

Among Longsys’s competitors, DRAM maker CXMT Corp. in July raised 66.6 billion yuan ($9.9 billion) in China’s second-largest initial public offering of all time and went on to overtake Tencent Holding Ltd. to become the nation’s largest listed company. One of the world’s biggest makers of flash memory, Yangtze Memory Technologies Co., is also nearing an IPO.

Founded in 1999, Longsys held a 1.2% share of the global memory products market in 2025 and generates about 70% of its revenue from overseas markets, with customers including Dell Technologies Inc., Lenovo Group Ltd. — which is also among the cornerstone investors — Samsung Electronics Co., and Xiaomi Corp.

Cornerstone investors, which get guaranteed allocation in the deal in exchange for holding the stock for at least six months, have agreed to buy 18.89% of Longsys shares. They include Transsion International Ltd., an indirect unit of Shanghai-listed Transsion Holdings Co., CITIC Securities Asset Management, and Lens Technology HK, the controlling shareholder of Lens Technology Co.

Citic Securities Co. and Citigroup Inc. are joint sponsors for Longsys’ listing.

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