勒庞民调领先引发法国可再生能源开发商赶在2027大选前抢签政府合同，光伏招标电价被压至€61/MWh

French renewable developers are rushing to lock in state-backed contracts before next year’s presidential election, fearing a halt to new projects under a Marine Le Pen government.

The scramble follows polls showing the far-right leader with a substantial lead ahead of the May vote. Le Pen has pledged to halt new wind and solar projects and attacked the billions of euros France spends supporting renewable power. Developers are now competing aggressively in what could be the last government tenders for years if she wins.

The last auction for large solar farms was almost six times oversubscribed, with winning bidders including Electricite de France SA and Reden Solar SAS agreeing to sell power at prices averaging 23% lower than last year’s tender. An auction for smaller projects was also heavily oversubscribed, pushing prices down 15%.

The competition and lower-achieved prices are squeezing an industry already cutting jobs and costs after years of rapid expansion. “This is putting pressure on our margins of development and construction,” said Thomas de Moussac, managing director and co-founder of Mexens SAS, which won capacity in the latest tender. The company is developing battery storage as well as seeking growth abroad as it prepares “for a world without tenders,” he said.

Taking a leaf out of the Donald Trump playbook, Le Pen has attacked the renewables industry for years, blaming subsidies, which exceeded €6 billion ($6.7 billion) last year, and President Emmanuel Macron’s overall energy policy for making the French poorer and ruining the economy.

Solar capacity expanded rapidly under Macron after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent energy prices to records in 2022, while technical problems sharply reduced France’s nuclear output.

The backdrop has since changed. Power demand remains subdued, renewable generation has grown and EDF’s reactors have returned, prompting the government to scale back some of its green power targets to avoid a glut.

That reversal is now rippling through the industry. Reden, bought by Macquarie Asset Management and partners in 2022, froze hiring of project developers in France at the start of the year amid uncertainty over future tenders. It’s expanding instead in Spain, Italy and Germany.

Others, including Valorem, started slashing jobs and costs this year after the government cut renewable growth targets for the coming decade. The slowdown has intensified competition for the contracts still available.

Investors are accepting price levels “that are still interesting, before potentially facing a period without auctions,” said Frank Demaille, chief executive officer of Reden, which won 20% of the 931 megawatts awarded in the ground-mounted solar auction earlier this month.

The low prices also complicate the debate over renewable subsidies. Large solar projects secured contracts averaging €61 per megawatt-hour in the latest tender, roughly in line with where 2029 and 2030 wholesale contracts on the European Energy Exchange. The government pays developers when market prices fall below that level, while companies pay the state when prices rise above it. The projects could therefore require little or no subsidy if prices remain near current levels, and could even generate revenue for the government if they rise.

Energy Minister Maud Bregeon said the falling auction prices show the industry is becoming more competitive. More renewable tenders are planned in the coming months, she said, adding that results for an onshore wind auction that will be shortly unveiled are “encouraging.”

Reden is also developing projects that combine batteries and are looking to sell more electricity directly to companies.