彭博分析稿：交易员警惕日本央行9月18日决议后シルバーウィーク假期内日本当局再度干预日元，USD/JPY 一度升至157.99

Yen traders are on heightened alert for possible intervention around the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy meeting, with a three-day holiday following the decision offering authorities an opportunity to act in thinner trading.

The yen gained as much as 0.5% to 157.99 on Thursday as traders starting pricing in a bigger than 25 basis point rate hike at the next BOJ meeting. It also rallied as much as 1.2% during New York hours on Wednesday, underscoring market jitters ahead of the BOJ’s Sept. 18 policy decision, when the central bank is widely expected to raise rates.

In April, authorities waited until a long Japanese holiday to intervene in the currency market for the first time since 2024. Investors are now speculating that Japan could employ a similar tactic during the Silver Week holidays, which begin shortly after the BOJ’s policy meeting.

“Silver Week probably adds a bit more uncertainty around the yen, mainly because liquidity can be thinner during the holiday period,” said Samara Hammoud, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “Another test of the pre-intervention highs in dollar-yen is likely over time. If that happens quickly, particularly around or after the BOJ meeting, the risk of another round of intervention would rise materially.”

The yen has been pressured by elevated oil prices and a wide interest-rate gap with the US despite Japan spending a record $96.4 billion over the past month to support the currency. The intervention was enhanced by US support, an additional factor that underscored the warning to speculators not to bet against the yen.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said they were prepared to enter the market again without hesitation if necessary. Speculative positioning is turning against the yen, with hedge funds rebuilding short positions after initially slashing bearish bets following the intervention.

There is also an unusually acute risk of financial-market turbulence from the BOJ’s meeting after Bessent stepped up his increasingly public pressure on Japan to raise interest rates. Any failure to follow Bessent’s barely camouflaged calls to raise rates would now not only surprise traders, but also send the yen tumbling.

What Bloomberg strategists say:Maintaining that upward thrust beyond a week containing both FOMC and BOJ meetings will be a much higher bar. It would probably require a surprisingly dovish Federal Reserve alongside clear BOJ guidance pointing to successive rate hikes.Neither prospect is likely to convince yen traders, who have repeatedly been left underwhelmed by Governor Kazuo Ueda.— Mark Cranfield, Markets Live Strategist. Read more on MLIV.

Investors will be on watch for the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting as well, which comes just days before the BOJ’s. At the Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Chairman Kevin Warsh warned inflation isn’t meaningfully slowing and said policymakers must be confident that it is, otherwise the US central bank has “work to do.”

“The market is on intervention watch going into the period with the Fed and BOJ’s meetings and Japan’s long holiday,” said Marito Ueda, president of SBI FX Trade. “Intervention is certainly possible once dollar-yen reaches the 160 range.”