彭博综述：刚果（金）钴出口配额制下出货回升、钴价自4月高点回落近30%，配额政策面临再抉择

Cobalt’s spectacular rally is reversing as the Democratic Republic of Congo’s exports of the battery metal pick up under a strict new regime, testing the top producer’s efforts to control prices.

The country has imposed limits on exports since early 2025 — first with an outright ban, and then with quotas that are still in place — in a bid to reduce a glut and boost the value of its output. That sent prices soaring, with cobalt hydroxide, the main product Congo ships, more than quadrupling by April.

But prices have since slid almost 30% as exports picked up following initial teething problems with the quota system and as concerns about global demand and recycled supplies weigh on the market.

Crucially, the pullback began even as miners in Congo exported less than allowed by the government as they got to grips with the new rules, with flows still well below levels of a few years ago. That suggests that cobalt prices could fall further if companies use their full allocations for the rest of the year and shipments accelerate.

That possibility likely leaves Congo mulling important decisions on its interventionist policy going forward. The big question is what an influential state regulator will do with an expanding pool of spare metal from unused quotas that’s theoretically available for export.

Congo exported about 41,500 tons of cobalt between December, when shipments finally resumed, and the end of June, government data show. Yet that makes up only around two-thirds of what firms were permitted to export by the Authority for the Regulation and Control of Strategic Mineral Substances’ Markets.

The world’s two biggest cobalt mines, belonging to CMOC Group Ltd. and Glencore Plc, both exported around 60% of what they were entitled to during the period, according to statistics compiled by Congo’s mines ministry. Both companies declined to comment.

Although Congo’s monthly exports almost doubled in June to 11,800 tons, ARECOMS — as the regulator is known — declined to grant miners another extension at the end of the second quarter and instead required the firms to forfeit any unused volumes to the government body’s own “strategic” quota.

The regulator, which doesn’t operate mines or have a trading arm, is yet to outline if and how it plans to deploy the now-enlarged quota. It has previously said it will use the metal to back projects that “promote the local processing of strategic minerals” and protect Congo’s economic interests. A state-owned firm with a monopoly over buying hand-dug cobalt has its own separate quota which it almost fulfilled as of the end of June, according to export data.

ARECOMS didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Since cobalt is extracted alongside copper in Congo, there’s still plenty being mined and CMOC has been accumulating a large stockpile. The Chinese firm’s first-half output from two operations was more than 65,000 tons, while its exports were less than one-fifth of that.

The amount of metal leaving Congo is still modest compared with a surge in output during 2024, which prompted the government to implement restrictions in the first place to tackle slumping prices. Most goes to China, with the long transport distance meaning it takes several months to show up in trade data. China’s imports of cobalt contained in hydroxide climbed to 4,852 tons in July, after totaling just 6,200 tons in the first half, customs data show.

Despite Chinese imports were less than expected, prices could face more pressure in the near term, according to consultancy Beijing Antaike Information Technology Co.

“Downstream demand remains weak, while peak-season consumption for electronics has yet to kick in and procurement activity from the battery space stays sluggish,” Antaike wrote in an August note.