彭博回顾：黄金矿业股8月创1994年以来最佳单月表现（NYSE Arca金矿指数+33%），资金回流“货币贬值交易”，但机构对后续分歧加大

An almost-vertical rally in gold-miner stocks in the past month is whetting the appetite of investors who have been whipsawed by messages from Washington policymakers.

Geopolitical turmoil and fiscal uncertainty powered gold mining stocks to their best August performance since at least 1994, outpacing the advances in bullion by more than three times over, despite a turbulent end to the period following Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s vow to rein in inflation. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index climbed 33% last month, clawing its way back from a 39% retreat from March’s all-time high. The VanEck Gold Miners exchange-traded fund, or GDX, marked its highest monthly inflows since February. The price of gold itself jumped just 10% in August.

The US Treasury’s attempts to rein in long-term borrowing costs has sent investors flooding back to gold and its proxies. Miners, because of their fixed costs, are a leveraged bet on further gains in the precious metal. Some investors say miners are ready for another epic run.

That’s the thinking of Craig Basinger, chief market strategist at Purpose Investments, who added miner Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. to the firm’s dividend fund in mid-July when gold was defying rising yields. Agnico shares rose 40% in August.

“A lot of this is that sort of washout phase has played out and now people are getting a bit excited about gold again,” Basinger said in an interview.

The dip-buying fervor was prompted by a wariness about extremely high valuations in companies linked to artificial intelligence, as well as steady buying of bullion by central banks. The rally was supercharged by an unexpected intervention from the Treasury to boost the bond market and drive yields lower, reviving interest in the so-called debasement trade, a key driver of gold’s steep climb last year.

Technical strategists who watch chart patterns are seeing green lights for gold.

“Historically, gold tends to find its footing in mid-July before entering a sustained period of seasonal strength that extends through much of the fall and into year-end,” Stock Trader’s Almanac’s Jeff Hirsch wrote in a note.

This bodes well for gold stocks.

Toronto-based Brompton Funds started rebuilding exposure to gold-tied equities in August, after reducing holdings during the selloff, according to Laura Lau, chief investment officer at Brompton. The firm is looking to further increase its weightings of gold stocks as it expects bullion to once again test $5,000 an ounce, like it did in March.

“We’re seeing geopolitical risk rise obviously with trade pressures, Iran feels like that’s going to be longer than expected, and then of course we’re having midterms coming up as well,” Lau said.

Lingering Risks

Not everyone is going all in on gold’s rally.

Much hangs on the new Fed chairman and the Treasury’s next move. Gold typically performs better in a low-interest-rate environment because it doesn’t offer yield.

At Fiera Capital, portfolio manager Candice Bangsund says gold prices could fall as low as $4,000 after moving “a little bit too far too fast.” The firm expects the Fed to hold interest rates steady in September, although it sees upside risk to inflation, which could weigh on bullion and miners.

“We could see maybe a little bit of breather in that space, and obviously that will hinge on what happens with monetary policy, the Treasury market in the US and developments in the Middle East,” Bangsund said.

Derivatives traders are exercising more caution than they did during January’s rally, using exotic options and spreads to keep their costs in check.

Read More: Gold Bulls Turn to Exotic Options, Spreads in ‘Orderly’ Rally

Implied volatility on GDX options, which had jumped earlier in the month, fell back as traders were less willing to pay up to bet on further gains. Sentiment on the gold miners ETF remains bullish, with calls trading at a premium to puts. However, the ratio of open put positions to calls has been trending upward, and last week reached the highest level since late January — potentially a sign of hedges being put in place.

Analysts are also seeing slower gains ahead. Newmont Corp.’s stock jumped 35% in August, while the price target of analysts tracked by Bloomberg implies around a 7% gain for the next 12 months. The implied upside for Agnico’s US shares is about 10% after a 40% surge.

While the pace of recent gains may not be sustainable, those big jumps aren’t surprising, according to Canaccord Genuity Corp. analyst Carey MacRury.

“Newmont is the only major gold company on the S&P 500, so it can get outsized demand from US investors if people want more exposure to gold,” MacRury said. As for Agnico, it was the worst-performing senior gold producer in the second quarter, so “this is a bit of having sold off so hard, it’s come back.”

Even with gold prices below $5,000 an ounce for much of the second quarter, earnings per share at miners Newmont, Barrick Mining Corp. and Agnico all grew at least 47% year-over-year in the period. Free cash flow also increased while spending declined.

Nawojka Wachowiak, a portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, doesn’t see valuations as stretched yet. At current levels Ninepoint would consider deploying more capital into gold-linked stocks, as the firm sees bullion in the early part of a multiyear cycle.

“Right now really it’s all about macro,” Wachowiak said. “There’s a possibility that macro becomes less of a driver, but right now the market has just so much uncertainty as to where policies are going.”