彭博专访沙特最大大麦进口商United Group：因俄乌战争黑海供应中断，转向欧盟与阿根廷采购，运抵沙特大麦价两个月涨最多25%

Saudi Arabia’s biggest barley buyer is shifting away from a key source of supply as the Russia-Ukraine war disrupts shipments from one of the world’s major breadbasket regions.

United Group, which got about a quarter of its imports from the Black Sea in the first half of the year, is now looking to the European Union and Argentina as that share drops, Chief Executive Officer Abdulaziz Aldharrab said in an interview.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified this summer, damaging grain terminals and sharply reducing exports from both countries. The disruption has pushed up a raft of commodity prices, with barley delivered to Saudi Arabia now as much as 25% more expensive than two months ago, according to Aldharrab.

“The prices definitely skyrocketed,” the CEO said. “We should witness an inflation in food prices because this will be passed to the industry and the consumers eventually.”

The last Black Sea vessel booked by United Group arrived in Saudi Arabia about two weeks ago and shipments are now coming from alternative sources. Argentina will likely account for about 30% of the firm’s purchases this year, up from around 20% last year, Aldharrab said. United is also buying from Romania, Bulgaria and France, and looking at Australia and the Baltic states.

Read More: Black Sea Tensions Lead Grain Buyers to Tap Baltic States

Founded more than four decades ago, United imports millions of tons of barley a year, making it the biggest buyer among Saudi peers. The country is the No. 2 buyer globally.

Hormuz Blockade

For importers across the region, the upheaval adds to disruption closer to home, with war in the Middle East blocking grain flows through the Strait of Hormuz. That turned Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea ports into important receiving terminals for Gulf states this year. But those facilities are now imperiled, too, adding another layer of risk and pushing freight and insurance costs even higher.

Riyadh maintains a buffer of spare grain supplies to guard against shortages. It typically keeps five to six months of wheat in stockpiles, while barley importers must hold at least 55 days of supply, according to Aldharrab. But higher costs for animal feed could squeeze farmers and eventually push up prices of meat.

“The animal-feed industry and meat should expect shrinkage in poultry and lamb producers’ margins,” Aldharrab said. “The impact on consumers will be manageable, but there will be an impact for sure.”

For less wealthy states across the Middle East and North Africa, the tighter market may leave them more vulnerable should the war persist.

“If this continues for several months, the situation will be different” for those countries, the CEO said. “It’s in the interest of all the parties to scale down the conflict and at least to have a corridor to move the grain.”

Explainer: What Ramped Up Black Sea Attacks Mean for Food Prices