欧洲/亚洲三季度可可研磨量大超预期，可可期货与巧克力股盘中已大幅反应

Cocoa processing in Europe and Asia exceeded expectations by wide margins in the third quarter, signaling a potentially stronger-than-anticipated recovery in global demand after years of elevated chocolate prices.

In Europe, the world’s biggest cocoa-consuming region, the amount of beans ground into butter and powder rose 3.2% from a year earlier, the first year-on-year increase for any quarter since 2024, according to the latest data from the European Cocoa Association. And Asia processed more of the crop than any quarter on record going back to 2011, with grindings jumping 29% from the same period last year, according to the Cocoa Association of Asia.

Both regions beat every estimate in a Bloomberg survey, which predicted European demand slipping and a smaller uptick in Asia. They also track sizable growth in other cocoa processing hubs like the Ivory Coast and Brazil.

“The market was already trending in a bullish direction and this will add to the sentiment,” said Daryl Kryst, senior vice president of OTC commodities at StoneX, adding that weather and supply risks remain the bigger drivers.

New York cocoa futures rose as much as 4.5% in early trading, their fourth straight day of increases, before paring gains. Shares in chocolate-makers that had plunged earlier this year on fears of long-term demand destruction were trading sharply higher on the back of the grindings data, with Lindt & Sprüngli and Barry Callebaut AG posting their biggest gains in months despite an otherwise sour day for stocks.

The processing data suggests demand may be recovering faster than expected as lower bean prices encourage processors to ramp up activity — particularly in Asia, seen as the epicenter of cocoa demand growth. It also reflects the substantial demand hit from record-high cocoa prices in 2024, which spurred chocolate makers to reformulate recipes and inflation-weary consumers to pull back from pricey sweets.

“The year-over-year growth in grindings is less impressive when you consider the drops seen in the last couple of years,” said Billy Roberts, senior economist for food and beverage at CoBank.

The question now is how durable the uptick in processing is. Cocoa futures are still significantly above historical norms thanks to a rally in recent months on concerns that the El Niño weather phenomenon will harm the crop in West Africa.

Some chocolate makers have also reported tepid sales growth this year, raising the possibility that the increased activity over the quarter may be hard to replicate indefinitely if volume sales do not rise in tandem.

“Some chocolate companies have been saying that they intend to rebuild volume sales and to focus on volume sales growth,” said Rabobank analyst Oran van Dort. “And if that’s the case, then this increase in European grindings could be an element of that in preparation.”

The recovery likely reflects improved profit margins for processors thanks to the lower cocoa prices as well as a “gradual” improvement in demand, according to Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insights at Phillip Nova Pte. Ltd. in Singapore.

“The key question now is whether the recovery is sustained into the final quarter or whether Q3 partly reflects restocking and a favorable comparison with last year,” she added.

The National Confectioners Association will release third-quarter cocoa processing data for North America after the close of trading later Thursday.

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