Bloomberg 深度分析：巴西最高法向 Flávio Bolsonaro 阵营示好，以防其赢得决选后推动弹劾大法官

Brazil’s Supreme Court justices are making cautious overtures to a political force they thought they had contained, but whose growing power could soon put their own seats on the bench at risk.

The prospect of Flávio Bolsonaro winning the presidency in next weekend’s runoff, along with enough Senate support to impeach top court members, has prompted some justices to seek a rapprochement with his camp, according to people familiar with the discussions. Recent judicial decisions and meetings have been interpreted as conciliatory gestures toward a political movement that has long regarded the tribunal as an adversary.

But the justices aren’t approaching those conversations empty-handed. Several members of Bolsonaro’s group still face legal proceedings before the tribunal, creating an uncomfortable dynamic in which their legal fates will lie in the hands of justices they could soon have the power to remove.

Bolsonaro has been consolidating support from center and right-wing parties since unexpectedly finishing ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round. Although recent opinion polls show the leftist incumbent narrowing the gap, a Bolsonaro victory would allow him to nominate as many as four Supreme Court justices during his term, potentially reshaping the institution for years to come, much as Donald Trump’s appointments transformed the US Supreme Court.

Crucially, Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party emerged from the election as the Senate’s largest, with 28 seats that would give it a head start in any effort to assemble the 54 votes needed to impeach a Supreme Court justice. The Bolsonaro movement has long been at odds with the court over investigations into the spread of fake news and other cases that have ensnared its allies, culminating in former President Jair Bolsonaro’s 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup to remain in power.

The new Senate will also include lawmakers who made removing Supreme Court justices a central campaign pledge. That could make it harder for the chamber’s leaders to defuse impeachment demands once the new Congress convenes, according to people familiar with the matter.

Few justices stand to lose more under a Bolsonaro presidency than Alexandre de Moraes, a longtime target of the Brazilian right who played a central role in the proceedings that sent Jair Bolsonaro to prison. Moraes also gained international prominence through his confrontation with Elon Musk over his social media platform X.

Now, however, the justice himself is under scrutiny over alleged ties to Daniel Vorcaro, the former banker at the center of a sprawling financial scandal. The allegations have left one of the Bolsonaro movement’s most prominent adversaries in an unusually vulnerable position just as its allies prepare to wield greater influence over the Senate.

Strong Motive

Court members still see room to avert impeachments, which some regard as a worst-case scenario for the institution. One person familiar with private discussions pointed to expectations that Bolsonaro would become more pragmatic in office. Campaigning against the court is one thing, the thinking goes; governing while dealing with a judiciary that wields considerable influence over Congress, the presidency and political allies is another.

Bolsonaro himself is also under investigation in two Supreme Court cases, giving him another reason to preserve a working relationship with the tribunal. One, overseen by Justice André Mendonça, is examining funds received from Vorcaro that Bolsonaro says financed a film about his father. The other, assigned to Moraes, stems from a Federal Police money-laundering investigation that identified links between Bolsonaro and a lawyer under scrutiny, according to O Estado de S. Paulo and a person familiar with the case.

Bolsonaro’s campaign didn’t respond to a request for comment on Monday.

Some justices, meanwhile, have taken steps viewed within the court as gestures toward Bolsonaro’s camp.

Moraes eased the prison conditions of a woman sentenced for her role in the same 2023 attacks on government buildings in Brasilia and closed probes into Bolsonaro allies accused of spreading fake news. Justice Gilmar Mendes, citing a lack of evidence, recently dismissed an investigation involving Bolsonaro’s running mate, Alfredo Gaspar, over allegations of sexual crimes.

Those moves may not be enough to contain the pressure. Bolsonaro’s campaign coordinator, Rogério Marinho, warned Supreme Court President Edson Fachin this month that the Senate’s new composition will make it very hard to fend off an impeachment push against Moraes, according to people familiar with the matter.

Impeachment became such a prominent campaign pledge that even a negotiated departure by Moraes may not satisfy the new Senate, according to two Bolsonaro-aligned senators. They said lawmakers could turn next to Kassio Nunes Marques, who is also facing questions over alleged ties to Vorcaro. Some Bolsonaro allies are additionally frustrated with the justice over positions he has taken both on the Supreme Court and as head of Brazil’s electoral court, according to one of the senators. Recent reports have also raised questions about his relationship with Vorcaro, allegations the justice has denied.

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More immediately, Lula still has a chance to fill a top court vacancy before his term ends in December. His previous nominee, Jorge Messias, was rejected by the Senate in April in a historic defeat for the government. Administration officials and political leaders are now considering former Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco for the seat, according to people familiar with the talks.